工程风险分析中的风险当量及其评价标准   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7  

余建星  李成 《海洋技术学报》2004,23(1):48-51,61

目前，量化、半量化风险分析是工程风险分析的主流。在对工程进行量化和半量化风险分析时，无论采用什么方法，风险评价指标和评价标准都是关键的重要问题。只有在建立了统一的评价指标和评价标准体系的基础上，对工程进行的风险分析能够得出正确和一致的结论。文章通过对国内外风险分析理论和实践的研究和总结，提出了在工程风险分析中确定风险评价指标和评价标准的原则和方法。  相似文献   

The CANALES experiment (1996-1998). Interannual, seasonal, and mesoscale variability of the circulation in the Balearic Channels     

J. -M. Pinot  J. L. Lpez-Jurado  M. Riera 《Progress in Oceanography》2002,55(3-4)

Repeated hydrographic casts, mooring time series and satellite sea surface temperature collected during the CANALES experiment (1996–98) are used to describe the thermohaline circulation in the Balearic Channels (western Mediterranean) and to analyze its variability. Mass transports are estimated by inverse calculations. The role played by each channel in the meridional water exchange is clarified: the Ibiza Channel funnels southward cool, saline, northern waters whereas the Mallorca Channel appears as the preferred route for the northward progression of warm, fresh, southern waters. A neat interannual trend is revealed by the continuous decrease of the amount of Western Mediterranean Intermediate Waters (WIW) brought by the Northern Current, reflecting the increase in temperature of the winter mixed layer in the northern Mediterranean that occurred each year between 1996 and 1998. A clear seasonal signal was also seen in the transport of the Northern Current which decreased from 1 to 1.4 Sv in winter to < 0.5 Sv in summer. The current intensified again in fall. A number of mesoscale eddies, from 20 to 70 km in size, most of them anticyclonic vortex eddies were brought by the unstable Northern Current, these eddies strongly perturbed the water exchange in the Ibiza Channel forcing retroflections of northern waters back to the north-east into the Balearic Current. These eddies either stayed stalled for several months in the Gulf of Valencia to the north of the channel, or were slowly funnelled southward through the channel narrows. A decreasing trend was observed in the mesoscale activity of the Northern Current between 1996 and 1998. Conversely, large, anticyclonic eddies, 150-km diameter, progressively invaded the Algerian Basin to the south of the channels in 1997–98 and forcing northward inflows (up to 0.75 Sv) of fresh and warm waters of Atlantic origin (AW) into the Mallorca Channel. The marked interannual differences observed in both northern and southern eddy activity may be linked to the interannual variability of the large scale thermohaline circulation.  相似文献   

Atmospherically-promoted photosynthetic activity in a well-mixed ecosystem: Significance of wet deposition events of nitrogen compounds   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

C. Boulart  P. Flament  V. Gentilhomme  K. Deboudt  C. Migon  F. Lizon  M. Schapira  A. Lefebvre 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2006,69(3-4):449

Wet atmospheric deposition of dissolved N, P and Si species is studied in well-mixed coastal ecosystem to evaluate its potential to stimulate photosynthetic activities in nutrient-depleted conditions. Our results show that, during spring, seawater is greatly depleted in major nutrients: Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN), Dissolved Inorganic Phosphorus (DIP) and Silicic acid (Si), in parallel with an increase of phytoplanktonic biomass. In spring (March–May) and summer (June–September), wet atmospheric deposition is the predominant source (>60%, relative to riverine contribution) for nitrates and ammonium inputs to this N-limited coastal ecosystem. During winter (October–February), riverine inputs of DIN predominate (>80%) and are annually the most important source of DIP (>90%). This situation allows us to calculate the possibility for a significant contribution to primary production in May 2003, from atmospheric deposition (total input for DIN ≈300 kg km⁻² month⁻¹). Based on usual Redfield ratios and assuming that all of the atmospheric-derived N (AD-N) in rainwater is bioavailable for phytoplankton growth, we can estimate new production due to AD-N of 950 mg C m⁻² month⁻¹, during this period of depletion in the water column. During the same episode (May 2003), photosynthetic activity rate, considered as gross primary production, was estimated to approximately 30 300 mg C m⁻² month⁻¹. Calculation indicates that new photosynthetic activity due to wet atmospheric inputs of nitrogen could be up to 3%.  相似文献   

热带印度洋偶极子发生和演变机制的数值研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

李东辉  张铭  张瑰  谭言科 《海洋科学进展》2005,23(2):135-143

对中国科学院大气物理研究所(IAP)大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)发展的第三代海洋模式(L30T63 OGCM)进行了改进。分析了该模式1959年1月—1998年12月的40a积分结果，以此研究热带印度洋偶极子发生、发展和消亡的物理机制。对数值模拟结果的分析表明，赤道印度洋表面异常东风引起的异常环流结构是偶极子发生、发展的主要动力学原因，其表面异常东风转换为异常西风所引起的异常环流结构调整是偶极子消亡的主要动力学原因；海气界面热通量异常的交换对热带印度洋海表温度距平偶极子模态的形成和演变起着重要的作用；垂直输送作用是热带印度洋次表层海温偶极子模态发生和演变的主要物理机制。  相似文献   

Spatial variation in abundance and catch composition of Cancer pagurus in Norwegian waters: biological reasoning and implications for assessment     

Woll  Astrid K.; van der Meeren  Gro I.; Fossen  Inge 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2006,63(3):421-433

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Recovery of thermohaline circulation under CO₂ stabilization and overshoot scenarios   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Norikazu. Nakashiki  Dong-Hoon Kim  Frank O. Bryan  Yoshikatsu Yoshida  Daisuke Tsumune  Koki Maruyama  Hideyuki Kitabata 《Ocean Modelling》2006,15(3-4):200

In this study we examine the behavior of the thermohaline circulation, as simulated by the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), for several centuries following CO₂ stabilization for the SRES B1 and A1B scenarios and for an “overshoot” scenario in which CO₂ levels temporarily reach the same level as in the A1B scenario before declining to an ultimate stabilization level that is identical to the B1 case. While we find no evidence for irreversible changes of the thermohaline circulation in the overshoot experiment, the interplay of the different timescales of the temperature response of the surface and interior ocean does lead to a number of differences in the long-term response of the ocean between it and the B1 stabilization scenario where the same GHG levels are approached by different paths. The stronger initial warming and its slow penetration into the deeper ocean, followed by a transient surface cooling in the overshoot scenario leads to lower static stability, deeper mixing, and a more rapid recovery of the thermohaline circulation than in the B1 stabilization scenario. While the overshoot scenario recovers surface conditions (e.g. SST, sea ice extent) very similar to the B1 scenario shortly after reaching the same GHG levels, the additional accumulation of heat in the interior ocean during the period of higher forcing causes the global mean ocean temperature and steric sea level to remain higher than in the B1 stabilization scenario for at least another several centuries.  相似文献   

Wind-induced eddy motion in the lower St. Lawrence Estuary     

G. Mertz  V.G. Koutitonsky  Y. Gratton  M.I. El-Sabh 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1992,34(6)

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A Zonal Pathway for NADW in the South Atlantic     

Nelson?G.?HoggEmail author  Andreas?M.?Thurnherr 《Journal of Oceanography》2005,61(3):493-507

Several large deployments of neutrally buoyant floats took place within the Antarctic Intermediate (AAIW), North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), and the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) of the South Atlantic in the 1990s and a number of hydrographic sections were occupied as well. Here we use the spatially and temporally averaged velocities measured by these floats, combined with the hydrographic section data and various estimates of regional current transports from moored current meter arrays, to determine the circulation of the three major subthermocline water masses in a zonal strip across the South Atlantic between the latitudes of 19°S and 30°S. We concentrate on this region because the historical literature suggests that it is where the Deep Western Boundary Current containing NADW bifurcates. In support of this notion, we find that a net of about 5 Sv. of the 15–20 Sv that crosses 19°S does continue zonally eastward at least as far as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Once across the ridge it takes a circuit to the north along the ridge flanks before returning to the south in the eastern half of the Angola Basin. The data suggest that the NADW then continues on into the Indian Ocean. This scheme is discussed in the context of distributions of dissolved oxygen, silicate and salinity. In spite of the many float-years of data that were collected in the region a surprising result is that their impact on the computed solutions is quite modest. Although the focus is on the NADW we also discuss the circulation for the AAIW and AABW layers.  相似文献   

Wave interaction with a submarine pipeline in clayey soil due to random waves     

A. Vijaya kumar  S. Neelamani 《Ocean Engineering》2005,32(13):1517-1538

The wave pressure and uplift force due to random waves on a submarine pipeline (resting on bed, partially buried and fully buried) in clayey soil are measured. The influence of various parameters viz., wave period, wave height, water depth, burial depth and consistency index of the soil on wave pressures around and uplift force on the submarine pipeline was investigated. The wave pressures were measured at three locations around the submarine pipeline (each at 120° to the adjacent one). It is found that the wave pressure and uplift force spectrum at high consistency index of the soil is smaller compared to that of low consistency index. Just burying the pipeline (e/D=1.0) in clayey soil reduces the uplift force to less than 60% of the force experienced by a pipeline resting on the seabed (e/D=0.0) for I_c=0.33.  相似文献   

大地形对正压扰动演变影响     

秦曾灏 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》1987,(3)

本文着重研究大地形对正压大气迭加在非均匀纬向基本气流上挑动演变的影响。用WKBJ方法推导了正压扰动的频率和频散关系以及波作用量所满足的方程。当基本流场定常且存在无限长的东西向山脉时,则有波作用量守恒。据此,获得了正压不稳定的必要条件:即在所考察的平面域内至少在某点或某些点上含地形效应的某一物理量等于零,扰动就可能得到发展。对波包动能的倚时变化的讨论得知,在无摩擦正压纬向非均匀基流的情形,地形对扰动动能并无直接影响,即导波和曳波分别在西风急流的南侧和北侧得到加强,并分别在西风急流的北侧和南侧强度减弱。扰动的发展由扰动的结构所决定。导波和曳波的波长缩短总伴同其轴线倾向于东西向相联系,而它们的波长伸长总是与其轴线倾向于南北向同时发生。还指出,正压扰动的加强(或减弱)与波长的伸长(或缩短)不是必然的联系,它的成立是有条件的。  相似文献