Runoff Simulation of Three Gorges Area in the Upper Yangtze River during 1998 Flood Season     

LIN Jian  Gabor BALINT  Balazs GAUZER 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2005,19(2):241-252

The contribution of areal precipitation of the catchment from Cuntan to Yichang (Three Gorges area) to eight flood peaks of the Upper Yangtze River (the upper reaches of the Yangtze River) is diagnosed for 1998 flood season. A rainfall-runoff model is employed to simulate runoffs of-this catchment. Comparison of observed and simulated runoffs shows that the rainfall-runoff model has a good capability to simulate the runoff over a large-scale river and the results describe the eight flood peaks very well. Forecast results are closely associated with the sensitivity of the model to rainfall and the calibration processes. Other reasons leading to simulation errors are further discussed.  相似文献   

午后多重极光弧观测研究          下载免费PDF全文

温艳波  杨惠根  韩德胜  T.Araki  艾勇  刘瑞源  刘勇华  胡泽骏  陈卓天  邓忠新  刘嵘  王晶 《极地研究》2005,17(4):255-263

本文利用2001-2003年南极中山站175天全天空摄像机观测,对午后多重极光弧的出现率及其与Kp指数的关系进行了统计分析,结果表明午后多重极光弧出现率呈一单峰分布,最大发生率出现在1445UT(1645MLT),其位置在1500MLT极光热点(1300-1700MLT)近夜侧的部分。与地磁活动指数Kp的相关统计分析表明,Kp值为2-3之间时多重极光弧有较大的出现率,这说明中等地磁活动情形下午后多重极光弧有较高的出现率。事件分析表明多重极光弧的强度变化与地磁Pc5脉动具有较高的相关性,并且有类似的频谱特征,这说明午后多重极光弧可能与同时出现的Pc5地磁脉动有关。  相似文献   

Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept          下载免费PDF全文

James O. Knighton  M. Todd Walter 《水文研究》2016,30(21):3788-3803

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

内蒙古干湿环境演变与地区生态建设优势气候背景分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

代海燕  李丹  娜日苏  陈素华  都瓦拉 《干旱区地理》2019,42(4):745-752

通过内蒙古地区近46 a降水和潜在蒸散量以及湿润度在气温突变前后的倾向率和差值变化分析，得出该区域主要植被类型干湿环境演变的时空变化特征。研究结果表明：降水在气温突变前“东增西减”，突变后呈相反的变化趋势。46 a降水倾向率增加区域主要集中在呼伦贝尔市东部和乌兰察布市以西大部地区；潜在蒸散量在气温突变前呈减少趋势，突变后有增加趋势，突变后潜在蒸散量明显小于突变前。内蒙古46 a潜在蒸散量倾向率大部地区偏小，偏大区域仅存在于中东部偏北地区，气温突变后全区大部地区存在明显的“蒸发悖论”；大兴安岭西麓和乌兰察布市以西地区突变后湿润度增加明显，暖湿的气候环境有利于当地植被建设和生态恢复，内蒙古东南部、呼伦贝尔草原和锡林郭勒盟草原区有暖干化趋势，上述草原区存在潜在退化风险。  相似文献   

The influence of coupled physical swelling and chemical reactions on deformable geomaterials     

Yue Ma  Xiao‐Hui Chen  Lee J. Hosking  Hai‐Sui Yu  Hywel R. Thomas  Simon Norris 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2021,45(1):64-82

Coupled thermo‐hydro‐mechanical‐chemical modelling has attracted attention in past decades due to many contemporary geotechnical engineering applications (e.g., waste disposal, carbon capture and storage). However, molecular‐scale interactions within geomaterials (e.g., swelling and dissolution/precipitation) have a significant influence on the mechanical behaviour, yet are rarely incorporated into existing Thermal‐Hydro‐Mechanical‐Chemical (THMC) frameworks. This paper presents a new coupled hydro‐mechanical‐chemical constitutive model to bridge molecular‐scale interactions with macro‐physical deformation by combining the swelling and dissolution/precipitation through an extension of the new mixture‐coupling theory. Entropy analysis of the geomaterial system provides dissipation energy, and Helmholtz free energy gives the relationship between solids and fluids. Numerical simulation is used to compare with the selected recognized models, which demonstrates that the swelling and dissolution/precipitation processes may have a significant influence on the mechanical deformation of the geomaterials.  相似文献   

Effects of temporal scales and space mismatches on the TRMM 3B42 v7 precipitation product in a remote mountainous area          下载免费PDF全文

Shiva Ebrahimi  Cheng Chen  Qiuwen Chen  Yinsheng Zhang  Ning Ma  Qammerul Zaman 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4315-4327

The accurate measurement of precipitation is essential to understanding regional hydrological processes and hydrological cycling. Quantification of precipitation over remote regions such as the Tibetan Plateau is highly unreliable because of the scarcity of rain gauges. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the satellite precipitation product of tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) 3B42 v7 at daily, weekly, monthly, and seasonal scales. Comparison between TRMM grid precipitation and point‐based rain gauge precipitation was conducted using nearest neighbour and bilinear weighted interpolation methods. The results showed that the TRMM product could not capture daily precipitation well due to some rainfall events being missed at short time scales but provided reasonably good precipitation data at weekly, monthly, and seasonal scales. TRMM tended to underestimate the precipitation of small rainfall events (less than 1 mm/day), while it overestimated the precipitation of large rainfall events (greater than 20 mm/day). Consequently, TRMM showed better performance in the summer monsoon season than in the winter season. Through comparison, it was also found that the bilinear weighted interpolation method performs better than the nearest neighbour method in TRMM precipitation extraction.  相似文献   

Chemo‐mechanics of cemented granular solids subjected to precipitation and dissolution of mineral species          下载免费PDF全文

Giuseppe Buscarnera  Arghya Das 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(9):1295-1320

This paper studies the chemo‐mechanics of cemented granular solids in the context of continuum thermodynamics for fluid‐saturated porous media. For this purpose, an existing constitutive model formulated in the frame of the Breakage Mechanics theory is augmented to cope with reactive processes. Chemical state variables accounting for the reactions between the solid constituents and the solutes in the pore fluid are introduced to enrich the interactions among the microstructural units simulated by the model (i.e., grains and cement bonds). Two different reactive processes are studied (i.e., grain dissolution and cement precipitation), using the chemical variables to describe the progression of the reactions and track changes in the size of grains and bonds. Finally, a homogenization strategy is used to derive the energy potentials of the solid mixture, adopting probability density functions that depend on both mechanical and chemical indices. It is shown that the connection between the statistics of the micro‐scale attributes and the continuum properties of the solid enables the mathematical capture of numerous mechanical effects of lithification and chemical deterioration, such as changes in stiffness, expansion/contraction of the elastic domain, and development of inelastic strains during reaction. In particular, the model offers an interpretation of the plastic strains generated by aggressive environments, which are here interpreted as an outcome of chemically driven debonding and comminution. As a result, the model explains widely observed macroscopic signatures of geomaterial degradation by reconciling the energetics of the deformation/reaction processes with the evolving geometry of the microstructural attributes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Varying water utilization of Haloxylon ammodendron plantations in a desert‐oasis ecotone          下载免费PDF全文

Hai Zhou  Wenzhi Zhao  Gefei Zhang 《水文研究》2017,31(4):825-835

Haloxylon ammodendron is a desert shrub used extensively in China for restoring degraded dry lands. An understanding of the water source used by H. ammodendron plantations is critical achieving sustainable vegetation restoration. We measured mortality, shoot size, and rooting depth in 5‐, 10‐, 20‐, and 40‐year‐old H. ammodendron plantations. We examined stable isotopic ratios of oxygen (δ¹⁸O) in precipitation, groundwater, and soil water in different soil layers and seasons, and in plant stem water to determine water sources at different shrub ages. We found that water acquisition patterns in H. ammodendron plantations differed with plantation age and season. Thus, the main water source for 5‐year‐old shrubs was shallow soil water. Water sources of 10‐year‐old shrubs shifted depending on the soil water conditions during the season. Although their tap roots could absorb deep soil water, the plantation main water sources were from soil water, and about 50% of water originated from shallow and mid soil. This pattern might occur because main water sources in these plantations were changeable over time. The 20‐ and 40‐year‐old shrubs acquired water mainly from permanent groundwater. We conclude that the main water source of a young H. ammodendron plantation was soil water recharged by precipitation. However, when roots reached sufficient depth, water originated mainly from the deep soil water, especially in the dry season. The deeply rooted 20‐ and 40‐year‐old shrubs have the ability to exploit a deep and reliable water source. To achieve sustainability in these plantations, we recommend a reduction in the initial density of H. ammodendron in the desert‐oasis ecotone to decelerate the consumption of shallow soil water during plantation establishment.  相似文献   

Likely effects of climate change on groundwater availability in a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain          下载免费PDF全文

Hassane Moutahir  Pau Bellot  Robert Monjo  Juan Bellot  Miguel Garcia  Issam Touhami 《水文研究》2017,31(1):161-176

Groundwater resources are typically the main fresh water source in arid and semi‐arid regions. Natural recharge of aquifers is mainly based on precipitation; however, only heavy precipitation events (HPEs) are expected to produce appreciable aquifer recharge in these environments. In this work, we used daily precipitation and monthly water level time series from different locations over a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain to identify the critical threshold value to define HPEs that lead to appreciable aquifer recharge in this region. Wavelet and trend analyses were used to study the changes in the temporal distribution of the chosen HPEs (≥20 mm day^?1) over the observed period 1953–2012 and its projected evolution by using 18 downscaled climate projections over the projected period 2040–2099. The used precipitation time series were grouped in 10 clusters according to similarities between them assessed by using Pearson correlations. Results showed that the critical HPE threshold for the study area is 20 mm day^?1. Wavelet analysis showed that observed significant seasonal and annual peaks in global wavelet spectrum in the first sub‐period (1953–1982) are no longer significant in the second sub‐period (1983–2012) in the major part of the ten clusters. This change is because of the reduction of the mean HPEs number, which showed a negative trend over the observed period in nine clusters and was significant in five of them. However, the mean size of HPEs showed a positive trend in six clusters. A similar tendency of change is expected over the projected period. The expected reduction of the mean HPEs number is two times higher under the high climate scenario (RCP8.5) than under the moderate scenario (RCP4.5). The mean size of these events is expected to increase under the two scenarios. The groundwater availability will be affected by the reduction of HPE number which will increase the length of no aquifer recharge periods (NARP) accentuating the groundwater drought in the region. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Diagnosing snow accumulation errors in a rain‐snow transitional environment with snow board observations          下载免费PDF全文

Nicholas E. Wayand  Martyn P. Clark  Jessica D. Lundquist 《水文研究》2017,31(2):349-363

Diagnosing the source of errors in snow models requires intensive observations, a flexible model framework to test competing hypotheses, and a methodology to systematically test the dominant snow processes. We present a novel process‐based approach to diagnose model errors through an example that focuses on snow accumulation processes (precipitation partitioning, new snow density, and snow compaction). Twelve years of meteorological and snow board measurements were used to identify the main source of model error on each snow accumulation day. Results show that modeled values of new snow density were outside observational uncertainties in 52% of days available for evaluation, while precipitation partitioning and compaction were in error 45% and 16% of the time, respectively. Precipitation partitioning errors mattered more for total winter accumulation during the anomalously warm winter of 2014–2015, when a higher fraction of precipitation fell within the temperature range where partition methods had the largest error. These results demonstrate how isolating individual model processes can identify the primary source(s) of model error, which helps prioritize future research.  相似文献