Beyond scarcity: Rethinking water,climate change and conflict in the Sudans     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

This article develops a new framework for understanding environment-conflict relations, on both theoretical grounds and through a qualitative historical analysis of the links between water and conflict in the states of Sudan and South Sudan. Theoretically, the article critiques the dominant emphases on ‘scarcity’, ‘state failure’ and ‘under-development’ within discussions of environmental security, and proposes an alternative model of environment-conflict relations centring on resource abundance and globally-embedded processes of state-building and development. Empirically, it examines three claimed (or possible) linkages between water and conflict in the Sudans: over trans-boundary waters of the Nile; over the links between internal resource scarcities and civil conflict; and over the internal conflict impacts of water abundance and development. We find that there exists only limited evidence in support of the first two of these linkages, but plentiful evidence that water abundance, and state-directed processes of economic development and internal colonisation relating to water, have had violent consequences. We conclude that analysts and policymakers should pay more attention to the impacts of resource abundance, militarised state power and global political economic forces in their assessments of the potential conflict impacts of environmental and especially climate change.  相似文献   

Developing local adaptation strategies for climate change in agriculture: A priority-setting approach with application to Latin America     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

Even with substantially increased attention to climate adaptation in developing countries in recent years, there are a number of important remaining research needs: better incorporating stakeholder input; using replicable methodologies to provide comparability across different settings; assuring that stakeholder input reflects the results of climate science, not simply perceptions; and effectively linking stakeholder input with the regional and national levels at which policy changes are made. This study reports the results of a methodology for identifying and prioritizing local, stakeholder-driven response options to climate change in agriculture. The approach is based on multi-criteria scoring methods previously applied to research planning and priority-setting in agricultural and natural resource management research, public health, and other areas. The methodology is a sequential approach built around needs assessments by local stakeholders; the incorporation of climate science results; the sharing of these results and climate adaption response options with stakeholders at a series of workshops; stakeholder priority-setting exercises using multi-criteria scoring; and validation with policymakers. The application is to three diverse agroecosystems in Mexico, Peru and Uruguay. Among the many findings is that, notwithstanding the wide diversity of agro-ecosystems, there are numerous similarities in the agricultural adaptation responses prioritized by local stakeholders.  相似文献   

Politics eclipses climate extremes for climate change perceptions     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

Whether or not actual shifts in climate influence public perceptions of climate change remains an open question, one with important implications for societal response to climate change. We use the most comprehensive public opinion survey data on climate change available for the US to examine effects of annual and seasonal climate variation. Our results show that political orientation has the most important effect in shaping public perceptions about the timing and seriousness of climate change. Objective climatic conditions do not influence Americans’ perceptions of the timing of climate change and only have a negligible effect on perceptions about the seriousness of climate change. These results suggest that further changes in climatic conditions are unlikely to produce noticeable shifts in Americans’ climate change perceptions.  相似文献   

Agrarian stress and climate change in the Eastern Gangetic Plains: Gendered vulnerability in a stratified social formation     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

This paper reviews the complex impact of climate change on gender relations and associated vulnerability on the Eastern Gangetic Plains of Nepal and India. Field research has identified that gendered vulnerability to climate change is intricately connected to local and macro level political economic processes. Rather than being a single driver of change, climate is one among several stresses on agriculture, alongside a broader set of non-climatic processes. While these pressures are linked to large scale political–economic processes, the response on the ground is mediated by the local level relations of class and caste, creating stratified patterns of vulnerability. The primary form of gendered vulnerability in the context of agrarian stress emerges from male out-migration, which has affected the distribution of labour and resources. While migration occurs amongst all socio-economic groups, women from marginal farmer and tenant households are most vulnerable. While the causes of migration are only indirectly associated with climate change, migration itself is rendering women who are left behind from marginal households, more vulnerable to ecological shocks such as droughts due to the sporadic flow of income and their reduced capacity for investment in off-farm activities. It is clear that policies and initiatives to address climate change in stratified social formations such as the Eastern Gangetic Plains, will be ineffective without addressing the deeper structural intersections between class, caste and gender.  相似文献   

Assessing changing vulnerability to dengue in northeastern Brazil using a water-associated disease index approach     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

Water management practices and access to safe water supplies have major implications for human health. While a range of assessments has been developed to assess water vulnerability, limited work has extended these concepts to health and wellbeing. Water-associated disease cycles are characterized by complex linkages between social and ecological determinants, thus conceptualizing vulnerability in the context of health offers a useful framework for analysis. This paper applies a water associated disease index (WADI) as a tool to deepen understanding of changing vulnerability to dengue, comparing conditions in 2000 and 2010 in Pernambuco, Northeast Brazil. Multi-dimensional data were integrated into indicators of exposure and susceptibility using the WADI approach, including water access, land cover, climate, and solid waste collection, and outputs were validated and visualized in map form. The findings illustrate heterogeneous patterns of vulnerability to dengue in the region, and highlight trends of seasonal and long-term changes. Highest vulnerability was observed in densely populated Recife and the surrounding coastal region in both time periods, with climate conditions creating seasonal trends in exposure to dengue. While more remote areas in the semi-arid Sertão showed low vulnerability overall, increases were observed in some areas between 2000 and 2010 due to land use intensification and growing population densities. These findings suggest that interventions should consider the dynamic nature of social and ecological factors that contribute to health outcomes and address current as well as future populations vulnerable to dengue transmission. This vulnerability mapping approach can be applied to other water-associated diseases impacted by global environmental change to highlight priority areas for further investigation and contribute towards improving interventions.  相似文献   

利用稀少卫星影像控制点生产1:10 000 DOM——以阿拉善盟测区为例     

逯中香  樊彦国  李国胜 《测绘通报》2022,(3):138-142+156

青藏铁路沿线地表受多年冻土的影响会产生抬升和沉降,形变监测对于其安全运行至关重要。本文采用41景C波段Sentinel-1A升轨数据,结合均匀网格划分子区域的方法,探测分布相对均匀的永久散射体,以作为SBAS InSAR技术的地面控制点,对青藏线羊八井站至乌玛塘站段铁路及其沿线地表进行形变监测。试验结果表明,该段铁路年形变速率范围为-8~2 mm/a,该区域形变受周围冻土的影响随季节呈周期性变化;SBAS InSAR技术和本文的PS-SBAS InSAR技术在同名点形变趋势与形变程度方面的对比结果保持一致性,进一步说明了本文方法的可靠性。  相似文献   

结合空间上下文与慢特征分析的多光谱影像变化检测     

王晓雯  戴晨光  张振超  季虹良 《测绘通报》2022,(11):39-43

为了提高多光谱影像变化检测的精度,本文提出了一种结合空间上下文与慢特征分析的方法。首先采用自适应空间上下文提取算法围绕像素构建自适应区域,探索像素周围的上下文信息;然后通过迭代慢特征分析,由相应像素周围的成对自适应区域定量计算成对像素之间的变化强度,增强变化区域与未变区域的可分性;最后生成变化强度图像,采用大津阈值法作二值分类,将变化强度图划分为二值变化检测图。利用Landsat 7卫星ETM+传感器的图像,与4种基于代数的方法及基于变换的方法进行对比试验,结果表明,本文方法在降低漏检方面有所改善,提高了召回率。  相似文献   

杞麓湖形态时空变化分析及地图可视化     

马晨燕  颜湘槟 《测绘地理信息》2022,47(1):86-90

杞麓湖是滇中高原湖泊的典型代表之一,近年来湖泊形态变化频繁且明显。基于2010—2021年的Landsat卫星影像,提取杞麓湖湖泊面积、湖岸线长度以及湖泊质心等数据,并计算出其他湖泊形态特征指标的数值。结合各年湖岸线的具体形态,对所获取数据的变化趋势及其原因进行分析,得出湖泊形态在时间与空间两个维度上的变化特征。根据专题地图制图的理论与规范,运用“形”“数”结合的方法对研究内容进行可视化表达,绘制杞麓湖湖泊形态的专题地图。  相似文献   

西安市浅层地温场垂向分布特征及其影响因素分析     

刘丹丹  胡安焱  刘彩波  黄景锐 《地下水》2014,(6):1-3

根据西安市内布设的12口长观孔监测的一年内的月平均地温,绘制不同时期地温随深度变化曲线,系统分析西安市浅层地温场垂向上的分布特征及其影响因素。分析得出：西安市垂向上的分布特征有两种类型：渐变升温型和升温降温交替型。影响其分布的主要因素是地质构造、地下水活动以及岩性。在开发利用过程中要针对浅层地温场不同的变化类型因地制宜地进行调查评价工作,合理开发西安市浅层地温能。  相似文献   

哈密地区平原区与山区气候变化差异性分析     

张彦军  穆振侠 《地下水》2014,(6):117-121

利用水文气象站点数据采用线性趋势分析法和Mann-kendall检验法分析了哈密地区与水资源息息相关的山区与平原区气候要素变化的差异性。结果表明：山区与平原区实测站点气候要素多年平均月系列变化规律与趋势基本一致,在量上存在一定的差异;气象站点与水文站点降水要素均呈波动增加的趋势,总体不明显,山区与平原无明显的差别,相对以头道沟站降水增加较明显;气温均呈波动升高的趋势,并且受所处的地理位置影响较大,在相近经度方向上山区气温的升高幅度高于平原区;哈密气象站与头道沟水文站点降水以上世纪70年代增幅最明显,而伊吾气象站和苇子峡水文站以上世纪80-90年代降水增幅最明显;气温除伊吾气象站上世纪90年代升温明显外,其他各站点均以70-80年代升温最明显。  相似文献