预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

王菊翠  曹明明  仵彦卿 《干旱区地理》2006,29(1):35-41

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。  相似文献   

Carbonates calibrated against oceanographic parameters along a latitudinal transect in the Gulf of California, Mexico     

J. HALFAR  L. GODINEZ-Orta†  M. MUTTI‡  J. E. VALDEZ-HOLGUIN§  J. M. BORGES† 《Sedimentology》2006,53(2):297-320

Trophic resources are an important control governing carbonate production. Though this importance has long been recognized, no calibration exists to quantitatively compare biogenic assemblages within trophic resource fields. This study presents a field calibration of carbonate producers in a range of settings against high‐resolution in situ measurements of nutrients, temperature and salinity. With its latitudinal extent from 30° to 23° N, the Gulf of California, Mexico, spans the warm‐temperate realm and encompasses nutrient regimes from oligo‐mesotrophic in the south to eutrophic in the north. Accordingly, from south to north carbonates are characterized by: (i) coral‐dominated shallow carbonate factories (5–20 m water depth) with average sea‐surface temperatures of 25 °C (min. 18 °C, max. 31 °C), average salinities of 35·06‰ and average chlorophyll a levels, which are a proxy for nutrients, of 0·25 mg Chl a m^?3 (max. 0·48, min. 0·1). (ii) Red algal‐dominated subtidal to inner‐shelf carbonate formation (10–25 m) in the central Gulf of California exhibiting average temperatures of 23 °C (min. 18 °C, max. 30 °C), average salinities of 35·25‰, and average Chl a levels of 0·71 Chl a m^?3 (max. 5·62, min. 0). (iii) Molluskan bryozoan‐rich inner to outer shelf factories in the northern Gulf of California (20–50 m) with average sea surface temperatures of only 20 °C (min. 13 °C, max 29 °C), average salinities of 35·01‰, and average contents of 2·2 mg Chl a m^?3 (max. 8·38, min. 0). By calibrating sedimentological data with in situ measured oceanographic information in different environments, the response of carbonate producers to environmental parameters was established and extrapolated to carbonates on a global scale. The results demonstrate the importance of recognizing and quantifying trophic resources as a dominant control determining the biogenic composition and facies character of both modern and fossil carbonates.  相似文献   

新疆和田河水资源利用与绿色走廊生态建设研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

阿布都热合曼·哈力克  克力木江 《地域研究与开发》2006,25(2):111-114

水是和田河绿色走廊形成与演变最重要的因素。虽然和田河径流量年际变化比较平稳．但年内径流量洪枯季节差异十分悬殊，人工调配水资源的难度较大。随着人类开发利用水资源规模扩大．水资源时空分布格局发生变化，中上游人工绿洲面积扩大，下游绿色走廊植被衰竭，土地荒漠化日趋严重，走廊生态环境持续恶化。文章分析了和田河水资源变化对下游绿色走廊兴衰的影响过程，提出了合理利用水资源、保护绿色走廊生态环境的对策建议。  相似文献   

城市化过程中土地征用风险表征及对策     

骆东奇  罗光莲 《地域研究与开发》2006,25(4):103-106,116

从土地征用基本概念和基本特征着手，描述了土地征用的主要风险，其表现为土地征用权力滥用、侵害失地农民的权益、诱发集体土地黑市、诱发社会矛盾等方面。分析了产生风险的“公共利益需要”缺乏明确界定、土地征用的补偿标准偏低或滞后、土地征用及相关制度不健全或存在缺陷等主要原因。提出了控制与规避风险的对策与措施：严格限定公益性用地范围，提高征地补偿标准，扩大补偿范围，完善相关制度，严格土地征用程序。  相似文献   

基于芬兰经验的我国森林资源型城市的发展研究--以伊春市为例     

姜琳琳  张宁  臧淑英 《世界地理研究》2006,15(2):48-53,65

资源型城市的可持续发展问题一直是学术界的研究热点,但对于森林资源型城市的研究却不多见。本文概括介绍了芬兰的资源和经济发展情况,系统分析了芬兰这样一个以森林起家的经济发达国家的成功经验;并以伊春为例提出了森林资源型城市经济转型和可持续发展可资借鉴的对策和建议。  相似文献   

城市河岸土地利用对河流廊道功能影响初探——以上海苏州河为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈婷  杨凯 《世界地理研究》2006,15(3):82-87

城市河岸土地利用往往改变河岸的自然地理条件,对城市河流功能产生影响。通过总结城市河岸廊道功能以及国内外城市河岸规划土地利用的实践,分析了河岸土地利用对城市河流廊道功能的影响,并以上海苏州河为例进行了实证分析。结果表明,苏州河河岸规划土地利用方式提高了河岸开放带宽度,改善了河岸舒适性,控制了河岸建筑高度,有利于保护和开发苏州河河流的景观、遗产和经济廊道的功能。干流河岸在自然廊道功能方面,仍存在一定缺陷,与支流的部分河段相比仍有差距。  相似文献   

四川盆地地下卤水资源优势及综合开发前景   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

林耀庭 《盐湖研究》2006,14(4):1-8

四川盆地地下卤水自震旦系至白垩系各层系皆有分布。卤水具有分布广泛、资源丰富、品质优异、高承压及气卤同产等优势特点,是四川得天独厚的液态矿产资源。卤水中含有K+、Br-I、-、B3+、Li+、Sr2+、Rb+等多种有用组分,皆为国家紧缺和紧俏物质,其含量多数可达工业开采品位,为优质化工原料水,经济价值极高,综合开发利用前景广阔。  相似文献   

Subsurface dams to harvest rainwater— a case study of the Swarnamukhi River basin, Southern India   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

N. Janardhana Raju  T. V. K. Reddy  P. Munirathnam 《Hydrogeology Journal》2006,14(4):526-531

Declining water level trends and yields of wells, deterioration of groundwater quality and drying up of shallow wells are common in many parts of India. This is mainly attributed to the recurrence of drought years, over exploitation of groundwater, increase in the number of groundwater structures and explosion of population. In this subcontinent, the saving of water has to be done on the days it rains. India receives much of its rainfall in just 100 h in a year mostly during the monsoon period. If this water is not captured or stored, the rest of the year experiences a precarious situation manifest in water scarcity. The main objective behind the construction of subsurface dams in the Swarnamukhi River basin was to harvest the base flow infiltrating into sandy alluvium as waste to the sea and thereby to increase groundwater potential for meeting future water demands. An analysis of hydrographs of piezometers of four subsurface dams, monitored during October 2001–December 2002, reveals that there is an average rise of 1.44 m in post-monsoon and 1.80 m in the pre-monsoon period after the subsurface dams were constructed. Further, during the pre-monsoon month of June, much before construction of subsurface dams in October 2001, the water level was found fluctuating in the range of 3.1–10 m, in contrast to the fluctuation ranging from 0.4 to 3.1 m during the period following the construction of dams. Hence, the planning of rainwater harvesting structures entails thorough scientific investigations for identifying the most suitable locations for subsurface dams.  相似文献   

Regional disparity in the changes of agricultura land use intensity in China during 1980-2002     

LIU Chengwu LI Xiubin 《地理学报(英文版)》2006,16(3):286-292

Based on the cost-benefit data （1980-2002） of farm products and China Agriculture Yearbooks, this paper studies the regional disparity in the changes of the agricultural land use in China during the period 1980-2002 from three aspects such as the degree of intensity, the sown area and the abandoned farmland. The results show that： （1） The degree of intensity of land use in the westena region during 1980-2000 has a strong uptrend, but in the eastern and central regions the degree of intensity descends obviously and has shown a continuous downtrend since 1997. （2） The total sown area shrinks notably in the eastern region, while it enlarges constantly in the western region. （3） The sown area in the eastern, central and western regions has gone through a similar cyclic process： down （1980-1985）-up （1985-1991）-down （1991-1994）-up （1994-1999）-down （1999-2002）. However, there are obvious differences in amplitude variation and tendency among them. The sown area has shrunk in the eastern region and expanded in the central and western regions especially before 1999. （4） The most cases of abandoned farmland are reported in the central region, the second in the eastern region and the least in the western region. The abandonment phenomena chiefly occurred during 1992-1995 in the eastern region, and during 1998-2002 in the central region.  相似文献   

紫色丘陵区不同土地利用方式下土壤活性有机碳垂直分布特征     

《山地学报》2006,24(B10):21-26

  相似文献