A non-parametric automatic blending methodology to estimate rainfall fields from rain gauge and radar data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Carlos A. Velasco-Forero  Daniel Sempere-Torres  Eduardo F. Cassiraga  J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández 《Advances in water resources》2009

Quantitative estimation of rainfall fields has been a crucial objective from early studies of the hydrological applications of weather radar. Previous studies have suggested that flow estimations are improved when radar and rain gauge data are combined to estimate input rainfall fields. This paper reports new research carried out in this field. Classical approaches for the selection and fitting of a theoretical correlogram (or semivariogram) model (needed to apply geostatistical estimators) are avoided in this study. Instead, a non-parametric technique based on FFT is used to obtain two-dimensional positive-definite correlograms directly from radar observations, dealing with both the natural anisotropy and the temporal variation of the spatial structure of the rainfall in the estimated fields. Because these correlation maps can be automatically obtained at each time step of a given rainfall event, this technique might easily be used in operational (real-time) applications. This paper describes the development of the non-parametric estimator exploiting the advantages of FFT for the automatic computation of correlograms and provides examples of its application on a case study using six rainfall events. This methodology is applied to three different alternatives to incorporate the radar information (as a secondary variable), and a comparison of performances is provided. In particular, their ability to reproduce in estimated rainfall fields (i) the rain gauge observations (in a cross-validation analysis) and (ii) the spatial patterns of radar fields are analyzed. Results seem to indicate that the methodology of kriging with external drift [KED], in combination with the technique of automatically computing 2-D spatial correlograms, provides merged rainfall fields with good agreement with rain gauges and with the most accurate approach to the spatial tendencies observed in the radar rainfall fields, when compared with other alternatives analyzed.  相似文献   

Spatial rainfall model using a pattern classifier for estimating missing daily rainfall data     

Tae-Woong Kim  Hosung Ahn 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(3):367-376

Missing data in daily rainfall records are very common in water engineering practice. However, they must be replaced by proper estimates to be reliably used in hydrologic models. Presented herein is an effort to develop a new spatial daily rainfall model that is specifically intended to fill in gaps in a daily rainfall dataset. The proposed model is different from a convectional daily rainfall generation scheme in that it takes advantage of concurrent measurements at the nearby sites to increase the accuracy of estimation. The model is based on a two-step approach to handle the occurrence and the amount of daily rainfalls separately. This study tested four neural network classifiers for a rainfall occurrence processor, and two regression techniques for a rainfall amount processor. The test results revealed that a probabilistic neural network approach is preferred for determining the occurrence of daily rainfalls, and a stepwise regression with a log-transformation is recommended for estimating daily rainfall amounts.  相似文献   

冲绳海槽千年来陆源物质输入历史与东亚季风变迁   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

陈金霞  李铁刚  南青云 《地球科学》2009,34(5):811-818

为解决近1000年以来东海沿岸地区气候演化及其对南冲绳海槽陆源物质输入的影响, 对取自南冲绳海槽的MD05-2908孔上部(0~810cm) 共78份孢粉样品和199份有机碳同位素样品进行了分析.结果显示, 近1000年以来南冲绳海槽陆源物质输入存在着显著波动, 其中1100~1040aBP、960~880aBP和800~480aBP期间, 陆源物质输入比例增加; 1040~960aBP和480~230aBP期间, 陆源物质输入比例减少.将陆源物质输入指标与陕西佛爷洞δ13C含量记录对比分析, 发现陆源物质输入比例变化与季风的变化密切相关.当夏季风减弱时, 导致降雨带长时间集中在南部地区, 增强的降雨量提高了风化剥蚀以及沉积物向海洋搬运的能力, 使得陆源物质供应量增加.   相似文献   

库水位升降联合降雨作用下库岸边坡中的浸润线研究   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

吴琼  唐辉明  王亮清  林志红 《岩土力学》2009,30(10):3025-3031

库岸边坡中的地下水对其稳定性有重大影响,目前还没有统一的公式用来计算岸坡中的浸润线。为此,建立隔水底板呈缓倾角的均质岸坡模型,采用稳定渗流情况下的浸润线作为非稳定渗流的初始值,推导出库水位升降联合降雨作用下该模型中浸润线的近似解析解。利用Geo-Slope中的SEEP/W程序,对浸润线的近似解析解进行验证分析,结果表明,在不同库水位升降和降雨的组合条件下,由近似解析解确定的浸润线与数值模拟结果基本一致。对库水位升降联合降雨作用下赵树岭滑坡中的浸润线进行研究,利用实测浸润线验证了近似解析解的正确性,并预测了赵树岭滑坡在快速蓄水、快速蓄水＋暴雨、快速泄水及快速泄水＋暴雨4种工况下（库水位波动范围为145～175 m）浸润线的变化情况。最后,从解析解的适用条件出发剖析了近似解析解误差产生的原因,为应用浸润线解析解解决实际问题提供依据。  相似文献   

典型岩溶槽谷区地下河水文动态响应研究——以重庆青木关地下河为例   总被引：8，自引：3，他引：5  

刘仙  蒋勇军  叶明阳  杨平恒  扈志勇  李元庆 《中国岩溶》2009,28(2):149-154

为了更好地掌握重庆青木关地下河水文动态变化规律,2007年5月至2008年6月利用WGZ-1型光电数字水位计和水质监测仪(CTDP300型在线水质分析仪）,对降雨量和地下河水位、水温、pH及电导率进行了连续自动监测,并采用水文动态曲线线型分析法分析了该地下河水文动态变化对降水事件的响应。结果表明,地下河水文动态对降雨响应迅速,水位流量过程曲线线型呈不对称尖峰型,尤其在2007年7月17日出现的大暴雨事件中,最高水位为1.175m,滞后最大雨强6h10min,最大流量为2.5781m3/s,而观测中该地下河最小流量仅为0.0189 m3/s,反映出该岩溶地下河发育强烈,赋水空间较单一、含水层对水资源调蓄能力较弱。电导率、pH和水温对降雨同样快速响应,电导率由602.7μs/cm降到462.09μs/cm,pH由7.23降到7.01,水温由18.9℃上升到19.5℃,各指标滞后不超过15h。   相似文献   

An integrated model for predicting rainfall-induced landslides   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Kang-Tsung Chang  Shou-Hao Chiang 《Geomorphology》2009,105(3-4):366-373

This study proposes a novel method that combines a deterministic slope stability model and a statistical model for predicting rainfall-induced landslides. The method first uses the deterministic model to derive the rainfall rate critical to induce slope failure for each land unit. Then it calculates the difference between the critical rainfall threshold and estimated rainfall intensity. Using the difference and estimated rainfall duration as explanatory variables, the method derives a logit (integrated) model to compute landslide occurrence probabilities. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this method, the study used radar rainfall estimates and landslides associated with a typhoon (tropical cyclone) to develop the integrated model and the same types of data associated with another typhoon to validate the model. The model had a modified success rate of 84.0% for predicting landslides and stable areas, and model validation yielded a modified success rate of 87.4%. Both rates were better than those from the critical rainfall model. The main advantage of the integrated model lies in its use of rainfall variables that are not included in calculating the critical rainfall. Also, as a probabilistic model, the integrated model is better suited for decision-making in watershed management. This study has advanced the method for predicting rainfall-triggered landslides.  相似文献   

边坡离心模型试验中的降雨模拟研究     

张敏  吴宏伟 《岩土力学》2007,28(Z1):53-57

为了在离心机试验中模拟降雨引起的滑坡,设计和使用了一套降雨模拟系统。这套系统的构成主要是针对离心试验的特殊要求进行设计的。所采用的特殊技术可以均匀分配雨水,将雨滴的尺寸效益和科氏加速度引起的雨滴偏移最小化,实现了不同强度和历时的降雨模拟。通过一个降雨条件下砂土边坡的离心模型试验,成功应用了该套降雨模拟系统,研究了边坡中的降雨入渗过程。  相似文献   

考虑降雨入渗的有密集排水孔幕渗流场分析   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

陈建余 《岩土力学》2005,26(1):150-154

有复杂边界面的渗流场求解问题经常会同时涉及降雨入渗边界和密集排水孔边界,这一般是一个非饱和渗流问题,因此传统的稳定饱和排水子结构模型不能适用。根据2类不同的排水孔,给出了排水子结构典型网格划分型式,提出了相应的非饱和排水子结构水力学模型,并引入传统模型中未考虑的降雨入渗等其它边界,使得模型更全面和完善。  相似文献   

降雨入渗条件下非饱和土边坡稳定分析   总被引：25，自引：0，他引：25  

徐晗  朱以文  蔡元奇  朱方敏 《岩土力学》2005,26(12):1957-1962

针对降雨入渗土坡的稳定问题,建立一个考虑水力渗透系数特征曲线、土-水特征曲线以及修正的Mohr-Coulomb破坏准则的非饱和土流固耦合有限元计算模型,进行雨水入渗下非饱和土边坡渗流场和应力场耦合的数值模拟,得到非饱和土边坡变形与应力的若干重要规律。研究成果为降雨入渗条件下非饱和土边坡的稳定分析提供了基础。  相似文献   

生物结皮恢复过程中土壤生态因子分异特征   总被引：19，自引：14，他引：5  

吴楠  张元明  张静  王红玲  聂华丽  陈荣毅 《中国沙漠》2007,27(3):397-404

对新疆古尔班通古特沙漠生物结皮恢复过程中土壤因子的动态变化进行关联性测度、方差分析、相关性分析相结合的定量研究,着重分析结皮恢复年限对土壤微生物数量、养分、盐分、土壤酶的影响,有机质与土壤盐分、pH值、土壤酶的线性关系及土壤生态因子间的相关性。结果表明：相对于土层深度,有机养分、土壤酶等生态因子与生物结皮恢复年限的联系更加紧密。结皮恢复年限对全P、全K、有机质、脲酶、真菌的影响极显著（P<0.01）;对速效P、速效K、全N、总盐、中性碱性磷酸酶、蛋白酶的影响显著(P<0.05)。随结皮恢复年限的增加,结皮层和结皮以下土层中有机养分、土壤酶均有不同程度的增加,逐步具备较高的生物学活性,沙土性状变化较快,渐渐形成抗风蚀、抗干扰能力较强的地衣苔藓结皮。结皮恢复过程中pH值与有机质呈显著线性负相关（R2＝0.701,P<0.05）,土壤盐分与有机质存在线性正相关（R2＝0.653）,但显著性不强（P>0.05）。电导率、脲酶、碱性磷酸酶、中性磷酸酶、蛋白酶与有机质存在极为显著的线性正相关（R2分别为0.888、0.993、0.958、0.948、0.911,P<0.01）,土壤生态因子的协调发展和紧密配合促进了生物结皮的恢复。  相似文献