Fingerprinting the 8.2 ka event climate response in a coupled climate model     

Ane P. Wiersma  Didier M. Roche  Hans Renssen 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(1):118-127

Using results from coupled climate model simulations of the 8.2 ka climate event that produced a cold period over Greenland in agreement with the reconstructed cooling from ice cores, we investigate the typical pattern of climate anomalies (fingerprint) to provide a framework for the interpretation of global proxy data for the 8.2 ka climate event. For this purpose we developed an analysis method that isolates the forced temperature response and provides information on spatial variations in magnitude, timing and duration that characterise the detectable climate event in proxy archives. Our analysis shows that delays in the temperature response to the freshwater forcing are present, mostly in the order of decades (30 a over central Greenland). The North Atlantic Ocean initially cools in response to the freshwater perturbation, followed in certain parts by a warm response. This delay, occurring more than 200 a after the freshwater pulse, hints at an overshoot in the recovery from the freshwater perturbation. The South Atlantic and the Southern Ocean show a warm response reflecting the bipolar seesaw effect. The duration of the simulated event varies for different areas, and the highest probability of recording the event in proxy archives is in the North Atlantic Ocean area north of 40° N. Our results may facilitate the interpretation of proxy archives recording the 8.2 ka event, as they show that timing and duration cannot be assumed to correspond with the timing and duration of the event as recorded in Greenland ice cores. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Effect of loading duration on uncertainty in creep analysis of clay          下载免费PDF全文

Fang Tan  Wan‐Huan Zhou  Ka‐Veng Yuen 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(11):1235-1254

Some studies suggest that creep parameters should be determined using a greater quantity of creep test data to provide more reliable prediction regarding the deformation of soft soils. This study aims to investigate the effect of loading duration on model updating. One‐dimensional consolidation data of intact Vanttila clay under different loading durations collected from the literature is used for demonstration. The Bayesian probabilistic method is used to identify all unknown parameters based on the consolidation data during the entire consolidation process, and their uncertainty can be quantified through the obtained posterior probability density functions. Additionally, the optimal models are also determined from among 9 model candidates. The analyses indicate that the optimal models can describe the creep behavior of intact soft soils under different loading durations, and the adopted method can evaluate the effect of loading duration on uncertainty in the creep analysis. The uncertainty of a specific model and its model parameters decreases as more creep data are involved in the updating process, and the updated models that use more creep data can better capture the deformation behavior of an intact sample. The proposed method can provide quantified uncertainty in the process of model updating and assist engineers to decide whether the creep test data are sufficient for the creep analysis.  相似文献   

1981-2015年西藏全区气候季节的变化   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

史继清  甘臣龙  边多  除多  豆永丽  普布次仁  郭艺楠 《冰川冻土》2018,40(6):1110-1119

利用1981-2015年西藏全区39个气象观测站的观测资料,采用修订气候季节划分方法,分析了39站季节起始日与季节长度,代表站的季节极端日期、极端长度、季节早晚、季节长短等级变化趋势及其对农牧业、旅游业的影响。结果表明：西藏近35年来,春、夏、秋、冬季平均起始日分别为2月25日、5月31日、9月15日和11月28日,平均长度分别为99 d、106 d、73 d和87 d,且区域差异比较明显。波密、加查、尼木、狮泉河、申扎站春季的起始日在提前,分别为-5.8、-1.2、-3.3、-2.5、-2.3 d·（10a）^-1;秋冬季的开始日在推迟,分别为1.4（1.5）、2.1（4.2）、1.9（4.4）、1.0（2.5）、1.2（4.0）d·（10a）^-1。春（夏、秋）季持续时间在延长,分别为7.0（1.3、0.1）、0.04（3.3、2.1）、1.0（4.6、2.5）、0.1（3.4、1.6）、1.7（1.8、2.8）d·（10a）^-1;冬季持续时间在缩短,分别为-8.5、-5.4、-7.8、-5.1、-6.2 d·（10a）^-1。春季的提前与季节长度的延长,使作物播种期与牧草返青期提早;秋季的推迟与季节长度的缩短使得作物复种机会大;同时对农作物的种植结构、作物品种熟性布局以及旅游业都有一定的影响。  相似文献   

汛期短历时强降水过程的闪电特征     

王秀玲  曹晓霞  朱靖民 《气象科技》2014,42(1):140-144

对2011年3次短历时强降水天气过程的闪电特征分析结果表明:①3次短时强降水都以负闪为主,负闪占总闪电的比例都在92﹪以上;②小时闪电频数峰值超前降雨峰值1h或同相;③5min闪电频数超前雨量峰值5~60min;④负闪电密集区主要发生在40dBZ以上的回波区,偶尔发生的正闪一般在较弱回波处;闪电大部分发生在回波顶高大于5km以上的区域;多分布在速度不均匀场附近;闪电密集区与VIL大值区对应关系不太好;⑤不同云体,闪电特征不尽相同,闪电频数高峰有的发生在强回波阶段,有的并不是回波最强阶段,而是减弱阶段。强回波前沿出现闪电密集区或前方无回波处发生闪电,预示未来强回波移动的方向;有的云体发展、成熟阶段闪电分布密集,负闪电主要集中在强回波中心附近,云体减弱阶段闪电分散,集中在单体的不同部位。  相似文献   

袭港热带气旋持续时间长期频率分析     

陶山山  宋佳玲  廖振焜  董胜 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2020,(2):135-141

香港经常受到西北太平洋热带气旋的影响,对该地区热带气旋持续时间的研究有助于经济社会的稳定发展。按照气象和天文台警告信号,热带气旋分为不同的强度等级。建立热带气旋持续时间的Poisson-Weibull复合分布模型,相应获得持续时间重现值的求解公式,分别用于不同热带气旋分类下持续时间多年一遇重现值的计算中。基于1987-2016年袭港热带气旋数据的分析结果表明,Poisson-Weibull分布适用于不同的持续时间分类样本;强的热带气旋经常会伴随较长的持续时间,这将会对该地区造成更为严重的破坏,这可为防灾减灾提供参考。  相似文献   

1961—2017年新疆积雪期时空变化特征及其与气象因子的关系   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

王慧  王梅霞  王胜利  余行杰 《冰川冻土》2021,43(1):61-69

利用新疆89个地面站逐日积雪深度观测资料,研究探讨了1961—2017年新疆区域积雪期、积雪初日、积雪终日的时空变化规律,分析了北疆和天山山区积雪期的年代际和周期变化特征及其与气温、降水的关系.结果表明:新疆各地积雪期、积雪初日和终日存在明显的差异,积雪期以天山为界北多南少;从空间分布看,天山山区和新疆北部阿勒泰、塔城...  相似文献   

基于DEM的山地地理可照时数空间分布估算统计模型——以重庆为例     

李军  赵玉竹  邓梅 《山地学报》2019,(2):284-294

为了建立合理、准确且便于估算和应用的山地地理可照时数空间分布模型,本文以重庆为例,首先利用分布式模型估算了30 a平均年和各月可照时数,并利用基于气象行业标准得到的理论值进行了验证;其次,以栅格单元为统计样本,建立了基于地形尺度的可照时数估算的统计模型。结果表明:(1)基于分布式模型的模拟结果具有较高可信度,除10月外,其他各月和年的相对误差均小于10%,且东北和东南部的相对误差较中西部高。(2)西部方山丘陵区的可照时数高,中部平行岭谷区次之,东北和东南部低。冬季可照时数的空间异质性最大,夏季次之,春秋季接近,均较小。(3)各月和年可照时数与主要地理和地形因子之间的相关关系均表现为极显著性,各月复相关系数在0.7929~0.8277,年复相关系数为0.8522。(4)重庆可照时数估算统计模型在一定程度上简化了分布式模型的计算步骤和计算量,便于其应用,并可为其他地区估算可照时数提供方法参考。  相似文献   

Characteristics of developing waves as a function of atmospheric conditions,water properties,fetch and duration     

J.P. Le Roux 《Coastal Engineering》2009

For any specific wind speed, waves grow in period, height and length as a function of the wind duration and fetch until maximum values are reached, at which point the waves are considered to be fully developed. Although equations and nomograms exist to predict the parameters of developing waves for shorter fetch or duration conditions at different wind speeds, these either do not incorporate important variables such as the air and water temperature, or do not consider the combined effect of fetch and duration. Here, the wind conditions required for a fully developed sea are calculated from maximum wave heights as determined from the wind speed, together with a published growth law based on the friction velocity. This allows the parameters of developing waves to be estimated for any combination of wind velocity, fetch and duration, while also taking account of atmospheric conditions and water properties.  相似文献   

地热异常的水槽模型实验     

魏文博  魏新发 《地球科学》1988,(3)

作为地球物理场的一个分支,地温场在理论和应用研究方面与其它地球物理场一样,也主要是依靠数学方法和物理模型实验的方法来进行的。本文讨论了地热异常水槽模型实验的理论原理;介绍了实验方法技术、实验结果和实际应用效果。  相似文献   

Comparative evaluation of Poisson partial duration models for mixed flood populations     

Senarath T. Ekanayake  J. F. Cruise 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1994,8(3):207-218

Simple homogeneous formulations of two extreme value partial duration flood models are compared to more sophisticated compound formulations in terms of asymptotic performance of quantile estimates. The compound model formulations were developed to model flood series resulting from mixed climatological processes. It was found that only in the case of marked nonhomogeneity in the data samples did the compound formulation of the models offer significant advantages in terms of variance of quantile estimates. However, the estimates from the homogeneous model were significantly biased in the negative direction. This negative bias of quantile estimates from the simple model was even more pronounced when the more sophisticated Weibull model was used as the base.  相似文献