云南山区日照时数的垂直分布     

王宇 《山地学报》1993,(1)

根据云南省内若干山区气象资料,研究云南山区日照时效的垂直分布规律,得出一些有意义的结论:日照时数垂直分布有抛物线型、线性型、缓变型等;日照时数年内变化有冬大夏小型、春大夏小型、夏大冬小型3种;山区日照时数坡向差异明显,各山区不尽相同。  相似文献   

On the distribution of flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena     

V. Choulakian  N. El-Jabi  J. Moussi 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1990,4(3):217-226

A methodology based on the theory of stochastic processes is applied to the analysis of floods. The approach will be based on some results of the theory of extreme values over a threshold. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the distribution of the flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena, by using a bivariate exponential distribution of discharge exceedances and durations over a base level.  相似文献   

Evaluation of risk concepts in partial duration series     

P. F. Rasmussen  D. Rosbjerg 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1991,5(1):1-16

Conventional design practice aims at obtaining optimal estimates of floods with specified exceedance probabilities. Such estimates are, however, known on the average to be exceeded more frequently than expected. Alternatively, methods focusing on the expected exceedance probability can be used. Two different methods are considered here; the first is based on the sample distribution of true exceedance probabilities. The second is a Bayesian analogue using the likelihood function and a noninformative prior to describe the variability of exceedance probabilities. Appropriate analytical solutions are presented in both cases using the partial duration series approach.  相似文献   

Improving the accuracy of tipping-bucket rain records using disaggregation techniques   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. Molini  L.G. Lanza  P. La Barbera 《Atmospheric Research》2005,77(1-4):203

We present a methodology able to infer the influence of rainfall measurement errors on the reliability of extreme rainfall statistics. We especially focus on systematic mechanical errors affecting the most popular rain intensity measurement instrument, namely the tipping-bucket rain-gauge (TBR). Such uncertainty strongly depends on the measured rainfall intensity (RI) with systematic underestimation of high RIs, leading to a biased estimation of extreme rain rates statistics. Furthermore, since intense rain-rates are usually recorded over short intervals in time, any possible correction strongly depends on the time resolution of the recorded data sets. We propose a simple procedure for the correction of low resolution data series after disaggregation at a suitable scale, so that the assessment of the influence of systematic errors on rainfall statistics become possible. The disaggregation procedure is applied to a 40-year long rain-depth dataset recorded at hourly resolution by using the IRP (Iterated Random Pulse) algorithm. A set of extreme statistics, commonly used in urban hydrology practice, have been extracted from simulated data and compared with the ones obtained after direct correction of a 12-year high resolution (1 min) RI series. In particular, the depth–duration–frequency curves derived from the original and corrected data sets have been compared in order to quantify the impact of non-corrected rain intensity measurements on design rainfall and the related statistical parameters. Preliminary results suggest that the IRP model, due to its skill in reproducing extreme rainfall intensities at fine resolution in time, is well suited in supporting rainfall intensity correction techniques.  相似文献   

Evidence of the dominance of higher-mode surface waves in the lake-bed zone of the Valley of Mexico     

N. M. Shapiro  S. K. Singh  D. Almora  M. Ayala 《Geophysical Journal International》2001,147(3):517-527

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甘肃河东地区降雨特征分析研究   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11       下载免费PDF全文

彭素琴  杨兴国 《水科学进展》1996,7(1):73-78

用甘肃河东地区19个气象站近15年雨量自记资料,分析了该区6月～9月各降雨持续时间和降雨强度下的雨量及其出现次数的分布特征,并初步分析了持续时间和雨强对雨量的综合作用。  相似文献   

Optimal operation model of a single reservoir with drought duration explicitly concerned     

H. Tatano  N. Okada  H. Kawai 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1992,6(2):123-134

In this paper, a new model for a single reservoir operation optimization is proposed. The proposed model can design the optimal operation policy of a reservoir with explicit consideration of drought duration. The authors model this problem by formulating a single-stage loss function as a function of both the reservoir release and drought duration. Thereby the expected loss per period which is calculated based on the above extended single-stage loss function is minimized in infinite time horizon on the basis of Markov decision process (MDP) theory. The reliability indices are estimated as expected loss per period for specified extended loss functions. Finally, the features of the proposed model are illustrated through numerical analysis.  相似文献   

我国日照时数和总辐射的空间分布场     

文传甲 《山地学报》1992,(4)

运用多项式回归分析和双随机样本检验,模拟日照时数和总辐射及其影响因子(可照时间、总云量和天文辐射、日照百分率)年值和1月值、7月值的三度空间分布场,取得了满意结果。这可应用在无测站地区,仅凭经纬度和海拔估算出上述气候要素值,估算的平均相对误差大多在5％以下(最好的达0.3‰)。  相似文献   

新疆北天山地区中强震前单台地震波参数异常特征研究     

杨欣  曲延军 《内陆地震》1999,13(3):221-232

强地震的孕育过程也是孕震介质的形成过程,在强震前震源附近小地震的地震波运动学,动力学特征的变化过程,则反映了孕震介质的变化过程,为研究地震的孕育,发展和发生的过程,采用单台地震波振幅比,尾波持续时间比,尾波衰减系数这３项地震波参数作为地震学短期前兆指标,分析其震兆特征,从而达到监测孕震介质变化的目的,研究结果表明,单台地震波参数能够有效地发现地震的前兆,但地震波参数的前兆图像复杂多变,不具有统一的  相似文献   

红河州中低海拔日照时数对烟叶品质的影响   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

尹文有  谢敬明 《气象》2006,32(5):116-120

通过对不同海拔高度烤烟生长状况与气象因子的平行调查，采用相关分析，揭示了烤烟大田生长期与日照时数的相关关系，表明烤烟不同生长时段要求日照时数不同。用二次曲线模拟了日照时数随海拔高度的变化情况，指出生产优质烟的适宜海拔界限和品质形成最佳时段，为优质烟生产提供科学依据。  相似文献