Risk assessment of the impact of pyroclastic currents on the towns located around Vesuvio: a non-linear structural inverse analysis   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

L.?NunzianteEmail author  M.?Fraldi  L.?Lirer  P.?Petrosino  S.?Scotellaro  C.?Cicirelli 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2003,65(8):547-561

In a.d. 79, the catastrophic eruption of Vesuvio, which later was described in two famous letters by Pliny the Younger to Tacitus the Historian, destroyed Pompeii, Hercolaneum, Oplontis and Stabiae, resulting in many thousand of victims. After a few hours of the eruption, the several-kilometre-high volcanic column began to collapse, provoking strong air shocks as well as destructive pyroclastic density currents, which travelled down the volcano slopes. In 2000, an archaeological excavation survey, which was performed on the east slope of the volcano in the Terzigno–Vesuvio area at a distance of about 5 km from the vent, brought to light the ruins of several Roman villas that were completely destroyed by these currents during the a.d. 79 eruption. The present paper proposes a new structural analysis, which starts from the study of the damage produced on partially collapsed masonry walls, and determines the dynamic pressures of the currents that overran this site. The non-linear structural analysis, which is based on strength values obtained by means of experimental tests, is of the 'inverse type' and takes into account the limit behaviour of the ancient Roman masonry. The values of the dynamic pressures that were capable of producing the collapse of the masonry walls were obtained by utilising a modern limit analysis theory. The obtained results show that dynamic pressures of a few kPa (1–5) were able to cause masonry buildings to collapse. These values are consistent with those proposed in some of the latest volcanological studies made by numerical simulations of pyroclastic flow propagation. It is shown here that these dynamic pressures are even able to determine the collapse of both modern reinforced concrete and masonry wall buildings that are largely present in the area. Therefore, in possible future eruptions, dynamic pressures of this magnitude would flatten a large urbanised area, where ~700,000 people are currently living. The obtained results give a better definition of both the risk to pyroclastic currents in possible Vesuvio eruptions and provide new guidelines for construction in the neighbouring zones.Editorial responsibility: A. Woods  相似文献   

Evolution mechanism of the western Pacific subtropical high   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

曹杰  黄荣辉  谢应齐  陶云 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2003,46(3):257-268

Ever since Charney et al.[1] studied the multiple equilibrium states in atmosphere with highly truncated spectral method in 1979, many Chinese researchers, such as Li Maicun et al. (1983)[2], Liu Chongjian et al. (1983)[3], Miu Jinhai et al. (1985)[4] and…  相似文献   

Conditioning mean steady state flow on hydraulic head and conductivity through geostatistical inversion   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

A. F.?Hernandez  S. P.?NeumanEmail author  A.?Guadagnini  J.?Carrera 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2003,17(5):329-338

Nonlocal moment equations allow one to render deterministically optimum predictions of flow in randomly heterogeneous media and to assess predictive uncertainty conditional on measured values of medium properties. We present a geostatistical inverse algorithm for steady-state flow that makes it possible to further condition such predictions and assessments on measured values of hydraulic head (and/or flux). Our algorithm is based on recursive finite-element approximations of exact first and second conditional moment equations. Hydraulic conductivity is parameterized via universal kriging based on unknown values at pilot points and (optionally) measured values at other discrete locations. Optimum unbiased inverse estimates of natural log hydraulic conductivity, head and flux are obtained by minimizing a residual criterion using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. We illustrate the method for superimposed mean uniform and convergent flows in a bounded two-dimensional domain. Our examples illustrate how conductivity and head data act separately or jointly to reduce parameter estimation errors and model predictive uncertainty.This work is supported in part by NSF/ITR Grant EAR-0110289. The first author was additionally supported by scholarships from CONACYT and Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas of Mexico. Additional support was provided by the European Commission under Contract EVK1-CT-1999-00041 (W-SAHaRA-Stochastic Analysis of Well Head Protection and Risk Assessment).  相似文献   

GIS-based hazard mapping and zonation of debris flows in Xiaojiang Basin,southwestern China   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

Y.?P.?HeEmail author  H.?Xie  P.?Cui  F.?Q.?Wei  D.?L.?Zhong  J.?S.?Gardner 《Environmental Geology》2003,45(2):286-293

Debris flow sites were identified at 140 locations in the Xiaojiang Basin in Yunnan province, southwestern China. Their spatial distribution and catchment characteristics are described in detail on the basis of previous research, air photo interpretation, field investigation and mapping using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Using a statistical approach, a quantitative model of hazards assessment and zonation was developed through synthesis analysis of basin areas, gradients, and the relative reliefs of these debris flow sites. In terms of debris flow hazard assessment, areas within the Xiaojiang Basin can be classified as severe, heavy and light hazard regions.  相似文献   

大地热流对中国西部环境与生态演变的影响及其研究意义   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

匡耀求  黄宁生  吴志峰  胡振宇  孙波  刘承帅 《地球科学进展》2003,18(1):22-029

中国西部地区生态环境的优劣与大地热流的高低有良好的对应关系。大地热流较高的西南地区生态环境优良,孕育了我国最好的生物多样性;而大地热流较低的西北地区环境恶劣,生态脆弱,荒漠化严重。大地热流的脉动影响区域大气系统下垫面的热力背景和气流运动,从而影响降水的分布和区域气候的干湿程度;大地热流的高低决定了一个地区地表生态系统能量供给的下限,是生态系统演变过程中一个重要的物种限制因子,制约了一些地区生态系统物种的多样性,进而影响到区域生态系统的稳健性。对大地热流影响生态系统发育和演变机理的研究将为人类科学干预地表生态系统的演化、恢复与重建退化生态系统提供科学依据与技术方案。提出了西部生态环境整治的一些新的思路。  相似文献   

塔里木与扬子新元古代热-构造事件特征、序列和时代——扬子与塔里木连接(YZ-TAR)假设     

仵彦卿  边农方 《地学前缘》2003,10(4):0-0

淄博市大武水源地是中国北方罕见的特大型岩溶-裂隙地下水水源地,地下水开采量为52×10~4m~3/d。为了对岩溶地下水进行有效监测,需要建立最优的地下水监测网。文中在对岩溶地下水流系统分析的基础上,建立了地下水流系统确定性-随机性数学模型,运用有限元与卡尔曼滤波耦合的模拟递推算法,对大武水源地地下水监测网进行了优化设计,结果显示:现有地下水位动态监测网难以达到监测目标,最优地下水位监测网由14个监测井,每月监测一次的监测频率组成,比现有地下水位监测网减少了2个监测井。  相似文献   

CLOBAL CHARM OF THE CHANGJIANG RIVER DELTA     

CHEN Shu-peng  ZHOU Cheng-hu  CHEN Qiu-xiao 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,(4)

1SPLENDOROFHISTORICALCULTURE InChina,theChangjiang(Yangtze)RiverDelta①gen-erallymeansanadvancedproductivityandculture,whichaffectsdeeplynotonlythewholeChinabutal-sotheAsian-Pacificregion,evenEuropeandAfrica. 1.1CradlefortheCommunicationandPropagationofCivilization ThedevelopmentcourseoftheChangjiangRiverDelta'scultureisdevious,buttheNeolithicHemuduCultureexcavatedinYuyaoCityofZhejiangProvinceindicatestheadvancedpaddyriceculture;MajiabangCulture5000aB.P.andEastBridgeRuin…  相似文献   

Application of swat model in the upstream watershed of the Luohe River   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

ZHANG Xue-song  HAO Fang-hua  CHENG Hong-guang  LI Dao-feng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(4):334-339

1INTRODUCTIONIntheHuanghe(Yellow) Riverbasin, soilerosionisaseriousproblem,whilerunoffandsedimentyieldsim-ulation hasnotbeenextensivelystudiedonthebasisofGIS(GeographicInformationSystem) and dis-tributedhydrologicalmodel.Inthisstudy,theLushiwatershed,whichislocatedattheupstreamoftheLushiHydrologicalStationintheLuoheRiver—thebiggesttributary oftheHuanghe Riveranddown-streamofXiaolangdiDam,isselectedasthestudyarea.ThelevelofsoilerosioninLushiwatershedismoderatein theHuangheRiverbas…  相似文献   

厦门旧城建设步行街区的初步研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈玉慧 《地域研究与开发》2003,22(1):44-49

以厦门旧城区西南部为例,对商业街土地利用和商服业现状作了详尽的调查和分析,在阐述旧城区商业街存在总体地位下降,以服装店为主的零售商业功能过于突出,购物环境容量不足等现实问题的基础上,提出以“步行街区”作为厦门旧城商业街更新发展的对策,并据此对步行街区建设涉及到的部分问题进行了探讨。  相似文献   

泥石流风险及沟谷泥石流风险度评价   总被引：28，自引：4，他引：24  

刘希林  莫多闻 《工程地质学报》2002,10(3):266-273

风险一词虽然已经广泛被科学家和经济学家所使用 ,但涉及到自然灾害的风险研究则还是 2 0世纪 80年代中后期的事。国内有关泥石流风险的探讨 ,更是 2 0世纪 90年代才初见端倪。国际上 ,泥石流风险评价至今仍然是前沿探索性领域和新兴的研究课题。基于联合国对自然灾害风险的定义及其定量表达 ,本文给出了泥石流风险度 =危险度易损度这一数学命题的近似解。讨论了风险分级和不同风险等级的分布概率以及风险指南。以云南东川因民矿区黑山沟泥石流为例 ,对单沟泥石流风险度评价模型进行了示范应用  相似文献