Development of a skill assessment tool for the Korea operational oceanographic system   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

CHO Kyoung-Ho  CHOI Jin-Yong  JEONG Sang-Hun  CHOI Jung-Woon  KWON Jae-Il  PARK Kwang-Soon 《海洋学报(英文版)》2013,32(9):74-81

A standard skill assessment(SA) tool was developed and implemented to evaluate the performance of operational forecast models in the Korea operational oceanographic system.The SA tool provided a robust way to assess model skill in the system by comparing predictions and observations,and involved the computation of multiple skill metrics including correlation and error skills.User-and system-based acceptance criteria of skill metrics were applied to determine whether predictions were acceptable for the system.To achieve this,the tool produced a time series comparison plot,a skill score table,and an advanced summarized diagram to effectively demonstrate the multiple skill scores.Moreover,the SA was conducted to evaluate both atmospheric and hydrodynamic forecast variables.For the atmospheric variables,acceptable error criteria were preferable to acceptable correlation criteria over short timescales,since the mean square error overwhelmed the observation variance.Conversely,for the hydrodynamic variables,acceptable root mean square percentage error(e.g.,p erms) criteria were preferable to acceptable error(e.g.,erms) criteria owing to the spatially variable tidal intensity around the Korean Peninsula.Furthermore,the SA indicated that predetermined acceptance error criteria were appropriate to satisfy a target central frequency(fc) for which errors fell within the specified limits(i.e.,the fc equals 70%).  相似文献   

德州气候变化与建筑物防腐   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

石慧兰  周圣军  陈松 《气象科技》2007,35(6):882-885

利用德州11县市1951～2005年温度、降水资料,计算气候干燥度,1981～2005年与1951～1980年相比全市干燥度由1.45增大到1.64,已由原来的半湿润气候变化为半干旱气候。各县市降水量呈减少趋势,平均每10年减少19.64mm;气温呈上升趋势,平均每10年升高0.11℃,冬季升高0.30℃,冬季增温显著,北部县市已由原来的冰冻区变化为微冻区,全市均为微冻区。由于气候条件变化,相应场地环境类别与腐蚀介质指标的调整系数标准应作调整改变,场地环境类别由Ⅱ类转变为Ⅰ类,腐蚀介质指标的调整系数均取0.9。  相似文献   

冰雹天气过程的综合分析   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4  

宋晓辉  柴东红  蔡守新  张功文  王海峰 《气象科技》2007,35(3):330-334

选取发生在邯郸辖区内的5次冰雹天气过程,应用常规观测资料并结合雷达回波资料,从天气形势、物理量场和雷达回波演变特征等几方面进行了综合分析。结果表明:冰雹天气出现在对流性不稳定层结条件下,中高层干冷低层暖湿,地面有中尺度辐合切变线配合,0℃层、-20℃层和强垂直风切变的高度适宜。多普勒雷达能很好地监测中尺度天气系统的发展演变过程,回波强度和回波顶高度的变化、速度对和逆风区的出现、1 h降水累积值和垂直积分液态水含量的急剧增加等都对冰雹的出现具有指示意义。  相似文献   

地面气象站环境变化对气温序列均一性影响   总被引：12，自引：3，他引：9  

吴利红  康丽莉  陈海燕  马仙妹 《气象科技》2007,35(1):152-156

为研究浙江省地面气象站环境变化对气温序列均一性的影响程度,采用测站历史沿革资料,对全省测站环境的时空演变进行了分析。采用距平累加、偏差界限值、F值检验法,对36个代表站的年平均气温序列进行均一性检验,并对非均一性产生的原因进行分析。结果表明:1971~2004年,浙江省测站的地理环境有显著改变;36站中有39%的测站为非均一性,产生非均一性的测站中,迁站原因占57%,环境恶化占36%;测站迁站引起的非均一性多发生在1980年以后;测站迁站时,新旧站址海拔高度差大且地理环境差异显著是造成气温序列非均一性的主要原因,迁站后气温序列较旧址存在偏高或偏低现象,其值对累年平均值有影响。指出了测站在迁移或环境变化过程中应注意的事项,以助于减少气温序列非均一性。  相似文献   

Occurrence and fate of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the coastal surface microlayer   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Guitart C  García-Flor N  Bayona JM  Albaigés J 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(2):186-194

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were measured in the coastal sea surface microlayer (SML), the sub-surface waters (SSW) and the overlying atmosphere in order to investigate the influence of the SML on contaminant enrichment and air-sea exchange. Samples were collected at two contrasting locations of the NW Mediterranean, one urban influenced (off Barcelona, Spain) and another comparatively clean (off Banyuls-sur-Mer, France). Statistical data analysis confirmed the accumulation of PAHs in the SML with respect to the SSW (20.3+/-9.1 vs. 13.1+/-10.0 ng L(-1) in the dissolved phase; 709+/-207 vs. 158+/-111 ng g(-1) in the particulate phase). This accumulation was higher at the contaminated location (Barcelona station) compared with the more pristine one, with PAH enrichments 1.5 and 4.5 times higher for the dissolved and particulate phases, respectively, indicating that the enrichment of PAHs in the SML is dominated by particle transport processes.  相似文献   

Variability in invasion risk for ballast water exchange on the Scotian Shelf of eastern Canada     

Brickman D  Smith PC 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(7):863-874

A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for dispersion of ballast water organisms in shelf seas is applied to the Scotian Shelf region of eastern Canada. The ballast water exchange process is simulated as the dispersion of tracer released into the surface layer of an ocean circulation model of the region. Circulation model variability is driven by wind stress from a cyclical year of forcing representing climatological storminess. Dispersion metrics related to invasion risk are developed and incorporated into a risk equation that computes the relative overall risk of invasion for ballast water exchange segments along vessel tracks crossing the shelf. Three hundred and sixty dispersion simulations are done for each segment of each of six tracks. Because the flow fields represent climatological variability in shelf circulation, the application of the risk assessment model captures the expected variability in invasion risk. Model results indicate that more than an order of magnitude variation in risk can exist along a given vessel track, and that tracks with offshelf segments provide a lower risk option compared to onshelf tracks. The model provides quantitative guidance to regulators regarding what is an acceptable trip diversion and can aid in numerous other management decisions.  相似文献   

Marine debris review for Latin America and the wider Caribbean region: from the 1970s until now, and where do we go from here?   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ivar do Sul JA  Costa MF 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(8):1087-1104

The available literature on marine debris from Latin America and the Wider Caribbean Region was collected and linked, reviewing their methodologies and principal results (quantities, composition and spatial-temporal patterns). The study region comprises 52 coastal countries of which only 14 had registers of works on marine debris. A total of 70 works were available and 69 had their full contents accessed. Brazil dominated the available literature with 70% of the documents. Beaches were the most studied environment, and plastics the prevalent form of contamination in the whole region. The exposure of marine biota (species, type of contact, consequences) was highlighted. The studied region, although still little exploited by this sort of research, shows the same contamination patterns observed world-wide. We also contacted 40 researchers in the area, collecting scientific contributions, opinions and suggestions for improvement of this research field. Further advances and new (urgently needed) lines of research are also discussed.  相似文献   

贵州猫场铝土矿成矿环境分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

陈华  邓超 《贵州地质》2010,27(3):198-201

黔中隆起后的碳酸盐岩及粘土岩类在长期物理、化学作用下,首先形成红粘土;红粘土进一步风化,而后分解成Al、Fe的氧化物、氢氧化物,在溶坑和溶蚀凹地内初步富集成零星分散的致密状和土状喀斯特型铝土矿,因地形改变再度进入分解破碎,为猫场最终铝土矿的形成提供物质来源—铝土矿碎屑。这些铝土矿碎屑和Al、Fe的氧化物、氢氧化物被地表和地下水以不同形式搬运到猫场十溶蚀湖中,按碎屑、化学、生物沉积规律形成猫场古溶蚀湖沉积铝土矿床。  相似文献   

内蒙古雅布赖盆地红柳沟中侏罗统沉积相及沉积环境研究     

钟福平  钟建华  由伟丰  王勇  张磊  边强  艾合买提江·阿不都热和曼  高玉飞  王金华 《西安地质学院学报》2010,(2):149-154

野外考察发现,雅布赖盆地红柳沟发育一套较完整的中侏罗统扇三角洲沉积地层。其中沉积亚相有扇三角洲平原、扇三角洲前缘及前扇三角洲亚相;沉积微相包括辫状河道、天然堤、决口、沼泽、水下分流河道、水下分流河道间、河口坝、席状砂等沉积微相。从沉积构造特征分析可以看出,河道沉积发育于水动力条件较强的沉积环境,扇三角洲前缘河口坝沉积发育于强与弱水动力条件交替出现的沉积环境,而前扇三角洲则在比较稳定的水动力条件下沉积。对野外6个泥岩样品的微量元素化验结果用蜘蛛图解分析处理,得到样品所含微量元素V、Sr、Rb、B相对富集,而Zr、Cr、Ni相对亏损。通过对该地区样品w（Fe^2＋）/w（Fe^3＋）及气候指数计算表明,当时为弱氧化、半干旱的沉积环境。  相似文献   

冀北宽城中元古界杨庄组地球化学特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李家华  旷红伟  彭楠  杜玉明  姚江荣 《岩石矿物学杂志》2010,29(3):289-297

为分析碳酸盐岩地球化学特征对地层及层序界线、沉积环境的影响,选取冀北宽城中元古界杨庄组剖面进行了实测。冀北宽城中元古界杨庄组常量、微量元素和碳、氧同位素在纵向上具有特征的演变规律,特别是在岩石地层界线与层序界面附近变化明显。CaO含量从杨庄组一段到二段为21.07%～16.45%,从二段至三段则为16.45%～24.21%,Sr、Ba含量分别从杨庄组底部向上由44.59×10-6突变至98.16×10-6和0.51×10-6至10.45×10-6,δ13C值在0‰～-1.5‰之间变化,δ18O在-3.5‰～-8.5‰之间变化。上述常量、微量元素及碳、氧同位素组成、变化与同时期海平面变化基本一致,表明地球化学特征可作为划分地层界面或层序界面的标志,特别是可以优化地层界线或层序界线。杨庄组CaO/MgO、Sr/Ba及V、Rb、Be、B等组成和演化研究表明,杨庄组形成于干热气候下的近岸浅水环境。  相似文献