Flood hazard and risk analysis in the southwest region of Bangladesh     

Tawatchai Tingsanchali  Mohammed Fazlul Karim 《水文研究》2005,19(10):2055-2069

Flood hazard and risk assessment was conducted to identify the priority areas in the southwest region of Bangladesh for flood mitigation. Simulation of flood flow through the Gorai and Arial Khan river system and its floodplains was done by using a hydrodynamic model. After model calibration and verification, the model was used to simulate the flood flow of 100‐year return period for a duration of four months. The maximum flooding depths at different locations in the rivers and floodplains were determined. The process in determining long flooding durations at every grid point in the hydrodynamic model is laborious and time‐consuming. Therefore the flood durations were determined by using satellite images of the observed flood in 1988, which has a return period close to 100 years. Flood hazard assessment was done considering flooding depth and duration. By dividing the study area into smaller land units for hazard assessment, the hazard index and the hazard factor for each land unit for depth and duration of flooding were determined. From the hazard factors of the land units, a flood hazard map, which indicates the locations of different categories of hazard zones, was developed. It was found that 54% of the study area was in the medium hazard zone, 26% in the higher hazard zone and 20% in the lower hazard zone. Due to lack of sufficient flood damage data, flood damage vulnerability is simply considered proportional to population density. The flood risk factor of each land unit was determined as the product of the flood hazard factor and the vulnerability factor. Knowing the flood risk factors for the land units, a flood risk map was developed based on the risk factors. These maps are very useful for the inhabitants and floodplain management authorities to minimize flood damage and loss of human lives. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

SHRIMP zircon age for an Early Cambrian dolerite dyke: An intrusive phase of the Antrim Plateau Volcanics of northern Australia     

L. M. Hanley  M. T. D. Wingate 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(6):1029-1040

The Antrim Plateau Volcanics, Australia's largest Phanerozoic flood‐basalt province, originally covered an area of at least 300 000 km² across northern Australia. Stratigraphic constraints indicate that the Antrim Plateau Volcanics are of Early Cambrian age (ca 545–509 Ma), although previous attempts to date the Antrim basalts by radiometric methods have been inconclusive. We present an ion microprobe U–Pb zircon age of 513 ± 12 Ma for the ～250 km‐long Milliwindi dolerite dyke in the west Kimberley. The dolerite is geochemically identical to basalts of the Antrim Plateau Volcanics, and was probably a feeder dyke for basalts that have since been eroded. It is suggested that the Antrim Plateau Volcanics extended hundreds of kilometres further to the west than recognised previously and may have once covered part of the Kimberley block.  相似文献   

长江倒灌鄱阳湖原因及发生条件的量化指标   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

王志寰  朱立俊  王建中  范红霞  陈槐  刘贝贝 《水科学进展》1990,31(2):203-213

江湖倒灌对鄱阳湖流域水动力变化和流域水环境保护等方面有重要影响,正确认识江湖倒灌原因和倒灌发生条件对明晰江湖倒灌作用机理、研究倒灌强度和倒灌影响范围等方面具有重要意义。在剖析江湖倒灌原因的基础上,从非恒定流洪水波传播的角度出发,结合鄱阳湖为"河相"、"湖相"时江湖倒灌的特点,提出了长江作用强度指标和鄱阳湖作用强度指标,在此基础上引入江湖作用综合强度函数,依据实测资料,分析研究了江湖作用综合强度函数的关系表达式、江湖倒灌发生条件及量化指标。经验证,所提出的江水倒灌量化指标可区分江湖顶托和江湖倒灌现象,可实现对鄱阳湖为"河相"、"湖相"时的江湖倒灌预测,且提高了预测江湖倒灌起止时间、总历时和年内发生次数的准确率,成果可用于江湖关系研究和鄱阳湖流域水资源综合利用工程实践中。  相似文献   

基于遥感空间信息的洪水风险识别与动态模拟研究进展          下载免费PDF全文

曾子悦  许继军  王永强 《水科学进展》1990,31(3):463-472

对地观测卫星遥感能够提供广泛可靠的空间信息，是洪水风险识别与动态模拟的重要支撑技术之一。为阐明卫星遥感技术对洪水研究的推动作用，回顾了洪水风险识别与动态模拟研究的发展历程及技术需求，以对地观测卫星遥感三大阶段的发展轨迹为主线，分析了遥感空间信息在洪水研究中的历史性贡献和阶段性效用，讨论总结了危险分区法、水文模型和微波遥感监测等3种洪水研究典型方法的应用进展。提出未来洪水风险识别与动态模拟研究的重点：遥感空间信息与模型算法的深度结合，遥感反演算法与系统的开发及应用，典型洪水研究方法集成系统的开发与应用，大数据方法与手段的应用。以期为提升洪水应急响应能力与灾害风险管理水平提供有效参考。  相似文献   

三峡水库汛期控制水位及运用条件   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王俊  郭生练 《水科学进展》1990,31(4):473-480

随着长江上游梯级水库的陆续建成投运，三峡水库的水文情势和功能需求与设计条件相比发生了显著变化，仍维持固定的汛限水位运行已不能适应新形势需求。本文通过辨析三峡水库设计阶段汛限水位的设置条件，挖掘流域洪水特性和洪水遭遇规律，论证三峡水库汛期运行水位动态控制的可行性。结果表明：① 三峡水库设计推求的汛限水位145 m的适用条件是应对流域性大洪水，而流域性洪水发生概率小且特征明显，可以通过水文水情分析提前预判。② 根据流域洪水类型、洪水分期和遭遇规律，预判发生区域性大洪水时，三峡水库6月初至梅雨期结束汛限水位按145 m设置，从梅雨期结束后逐渐提高水位，8月20日后过渡到155 m。③ 在考虑上游水库群联合调度和气象水文预报的配合下，正常年份三峡水库汛期运行水位可在155 m上下浮动，并考虑提前蓄水。④ 三峡水库汛期运行水位动态控制，不会增加防洪风险和库区淤积风险，对中下游江湖关系和水文情势有利，可显著提高发电、航运、生态保护和供水等综合利用效益。  相似文献   

梯级水库运行期设计洪水理论和方法          下载免费PDF全文

郭生练  熊立华  熊丰  尹家波 《水科学进展》1990,31(5):734-745

人类活动和气候变化显著地改变了河川径流及洪水的时空分配过程，直接影响下游断面的设计洪水。本文综述水库对下游水文情势的影响，提出梯级水库运行期设计洪水理论方法和研究内容；重点探讨非一致性洪水频率分析和基于Copula函数的最可能地区洪水组成法，比较各种方法的实用性；推荐采用运行期设计洪水及汛控水位指导水库调度运行，建议进一步加强水库运行期设计洪水计算理论和方法研究。  相似文献   

矿山淹井中水位、水量的快速估算和预报     

尹春芳 《华东地质学院学报》1988,(3)

本文用数理统计方法,快速估算和预报矿山淹井中水住、最高水位,矿井水涌量、涌入矿区的总水量和需要排出水量。用简单易行的反推法确定淹井的涌水量,并推导出计算式,以供使用。该方法在某矿淹井中使用,效果良好。  相似文献   

Asymptotic Rayleigh instantaneous unit hydrograph     

B. M. Troutman  M. R. Karlinger 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1988,2(1):73-78

The instantaneous unit hydrograph for a channel network under general linear routing and conditioned on the network magnitude,N, tends asymptotically, asN grows large, to a Rayleigh probability density function. This behavior is identical to that of the width function of the network, and is proven under the assumption that the network link configuration is topologically random and the link hydraulic and geometric properties are independent and identically distributed random variables. The asymptotic distribution depends only on a scale factor, , where is a mean link wave travel time.  相似文献   

Areal extent of the 1988 flood in Bangladesh: How much did the satellite imagery show?     

Harun Rasid  M. A. H. Pramanik 《Natural Hazards》1993,8(2):189-200

This paper presents the methods and results of visual interpretation of satellite imagery for estimating areal extent of the 1988 flood in Bangladesh. The main limitation of this method was that cloud-free images were not available for the peak flood period in the first week of September. Relatively cloud-free images on three selected dates in the last three weeks of September showed that areas of inundation on those dates ranged from 44000 to 60000 km² ± 5% (31 to 42% of Bangladesh). The Government of Bangladesh official estimates of the areal extent of flooding were tentative in nature, since these were based on a choropleth map of relative proportions (percentages) of flooding in different parts of the country. The official estimate of the maximum extent of flooding was 82000 km² (57% of Bangladesh), i.e. 15 to 26% larger than the area shown on satellite imagery. The actual extent of flooding was certainly larger than the estimates from satellite imagery but, perhaps, smaller than the official estimates, since a reduction of 15 to 26% of flood area in one to three weeks seemed unlikely. An alternative method of mapping flood-affected areas by using newspaper-interpreted data was attempted, but the method had limited values because of reporting bias.  相似文献   

长江流域旱涝典型年大气水汽输送   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

高国栋  翟盘茂 《水科学进展》1993,4(1):10-16

利用我国125个探空站一日两次自地面至100hpa共11个层次上的观测资料,对长江流域典型夏涝年(1980年)和夏旱年(1985年)我国大气中水汽总输送场、涡动输送场及散度场进行了计算分析。结果表明:当水汽总输送场从西北、西南和东南三支气流携带的水汽交汇于长江流域,且整个水汽输送场稳定持久,则在水汽辐合带附近导致大量降水,形成洪涝;反之,当三支气流微弱不稳定,不能形成水汽辐合带条件,则形成干旱。涡动输送亦反映出类似的特征。稳定且强盛的西南气流水汽输送是形成降水的主要条件和原因。  相似文献