Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil‐mantled landscapes     

M. Casadei  W. E. Dietrich  N. L. Miller 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2003,28(9):925-950

The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km² catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

河北省粮食生产发展趋势及其地区差异   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8  

吴凯  袁璋  许越先 《地理科学进展》2003,22(5):499-506

河北省2002年粮食作物播种面积为6484.4千hm2,其中小麦占37.8%,玉米39.7%;粮食、棉花、油料的种植比例为15.9:1.0:1.6。北部四地市粮食播面占全省的23.3%,南部七地市76.7%。2002年粮食总产2435.8万t,为1949年的5.2倍;粮食单产3756kg/hm2,为1949年的5.8倍;人均粮食362kg,为1949年的2.4倍。北部地区粮食总产占全省的17.2%,南部地区82.8%。据回归分析与双向差分建模分析,2010年粮食总产可达3087.5万t,粮食单产4478kg/hm2,人均粮食460kg。据灰关联分析,影响粮食总产的主要因子有:粮食单产、农副产品收购价格总指数(1978年=100)、农业机械总动力、农村用电量、农田化肥施用量与有效灌溉面积等。根据笔者预测,若2010年农业机械总动力达8989万kw,农村用电量240.8亿kwh,农田化肥施用量356.1万t,有效灌面4549.2千hm2,则其粮食单产可达4664kg/hm2;若2010年仍保持2000年小麦播面所占比例(0.387),玉米播面所占比例达0.439,则其单产可达4387kg/hm2。  相似文献   

Use of Geomorphological Information in Indirect Landslide Susceptibility Assessment   总被引：31，自引：6，他引：31  

van Westen  C. J.  Rengers  N.  Soeters  R. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):399-419

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the importance of geomorphological expert knowledge in the generation of landslide susceptibility maps, using GIS supported indirect bivariate statistical analysis. For a test area in the Alpago region in Italy a dataset was generated at scale 1:5,000. Detailed geomorphological maps were generated, with legends at different levels of complexity. Other factor maps, that were considered relevant for the assessment of landslide susceptibility, were also collected, such as lithology, structural geology, surficial materials, slope classes, land use, distance from streams, roads and houses. The weights of evidence method was used to generate statistically derived weights for all classes of the factor maps. On the basis of these weights, the most relevant maps were selected for the combination into landslide susceptibility maps. Six different combinations of factor maps were evaluated, with varying geomorphological input. Success rates were used to classify the weight maps into three qualitative landslide susceptibility classes. The resulting six maps were compared with a direct susceptibility map, which was made by direct assignment of susceptibility classes in the field. The analysis indicated that the use of detailed geomorphological information in the bivariate statistical analysis raised the overall accuracy of the final susceptibility map considerably. However, even with the use of a detailed geomorphological factor map, the difference with the separately prepared direct susceptibility map is still significant, due to the generalisations that are inherent to the bivariate statistical analysis technique.  相似文献   

Effect of the chemical composition of the crust on the metamorphic evolution of orogenic wedges   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

B. Goffé  R. Bousquet  P. Henry  X. Le Pichon 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2003,21(2):123-141

Petrological data provide a good record of the thermal structure of deeply eroded orogens, and, in principle, might be used to relate the metamorphic structure of an orogen to its deformational history. In this paper, we present two‐dimensional thermal modelling of various subduction models taking into account varying wedge geometry as well as variation of density and topography with metamorphic reactions. The models clearly show that rock type accreted in the wedge has important effects on the thermal regime of orogenic wedges. The thermal regime is dominated by radiogenic heat production. Material having high radioactive heat production, like the granodioritic upper crust, produces high temperature metamorphism (amphibolitic conditions). Material with low radioactive heat production results in low temperature metamorphism of greenschist or blueschist types depending on the thickness of the wedge. Application of this model to seemingly unrelated areas of the Central Alps (Lepontine Dome, Grisons) and Eastern Alps (Tauern Window) explains the coexistence and succession of distinct Barrovian and blueschist facies metamorphic conditions as the result of a single, continuous tectonic process in which the main difference is the composition of the incoming material in the orogenic wedge. Accretion of the European upper continental crust in the Lepontine and Tauern Domes produces Barrovian type metamorphism while accretion of oceanic sediments results in blueschist facies metamorphism in the Valaisan domain.  相似文献   

A mathematical model of concentrate solids content for the wet drum magnetic separator     

John G. Rayner  T. J. Napier-Munn   《International Journal of Mineral Processing》2003,70(1-4):53-65

Low concentrate density from wet drum magnetic separators in dense medium circuits can cause operating difficulties due to inability to obtain the required circulating medium density and, indirectly, high medium solids losses. The literature is almost silent on the processes controlling concentrate density. However, the common name for the region through which concentrate is discharged—the squeeze pan gap—implies that some extrusion process is thought to be at work. There is no model of magnetics recovery in a wet drum magnetic separator, which includes as inputs all significant machine and operating variables.A series of trials, in both factorial experiments and in single variable experiments, was done using a purpose built rig which featured a small industrial scale (700 mm lip length, 900 mm diameter) wet drum magnetic separator. A substantial data set of 191 trials was generated in this work. The results of the factorial experiments were used to identify the variables having a significant effect on magnetics recovery.It is proposed, based both on the experimental observations of the present work and on observations reported in the literature, that the process controlling magnetic separator concentrate density is one of drainage. Such a process should be able to be defined by an initial moisture, a drainage rate and a drainage time, the latter being defined by the volumetric flowrate and the volume within the drainage zone. The magnetics can be characterised by an experimentally derived ultimate drainage moisture. A model based on these concepts and containing adjustable parameters was developed. This model was then fitted to a randomly chosen 80% of the data, and validated by application to the remaining 20%. The model is shown to be a good fit to data over concentrate solids content values from 40% solids to 80% solids and for both magnetite and ferrosilicon feeds.  相似文献   

Generalized Coarse Graining Procedures for Flow in Porous Media     

Sabine Attinger 《Computational Geosciences》2003,7(4):253-273

This paper focuses on heterogeneous soil conductivities and on the impact their resolution has on a solution of the piezometric head equation: owing to spatial variations of the conductivity, the flow properties at larger scales differ from those found for experiments performed at smaller scales. The method of coarse graining is proposed in order to upscale the piezometric head equation on arbitrary intermediate scales. At intermediate scales large scale fluctuations of the conductivities are resolved, whereas small scale fluctuations are smoothed by a partialy spatial filtering procedure. The filtering procedure is performed in Fourier space with the aid of a low-frequency cut-off function. We derive the partially upscaled head equations. In these equations, the impact of the small scale variability is modeled by scale dependent effective conductivities which are determined by additional differential equations. Explicit results for the scale dependent conductivity values are presented in lowest order perturbation theory. The perturbation theory contributions are summed up with using a renormalisation group analysis yielding explicit results for the effective conductivity in isotropic media. Therefore, the results are also valid for highly heterogeneous media. The results are compared with numerical simulations performed by Dykaar and Kitanidis (1992). The method of coarse graining combined by a renormalisation group analysis offers a tool to derive exact and explicit expressions for resolution dependent conductivity values. It is, e.g., relevant for the interpretation of measurement data on different scales and for reduction of grid-block resolution in numerical modeling. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

时间域航空电磁法一维正演研究   总被引：15，自引：6，他引：15       下载免费PDF全文

罗延钟  张胜业  王卫平 《地球物理学报》2003,46(5):719-724

基于电磁勘探理论，导出了层状大地条件下时间域航空电磁法（偶极-偶极装置）的正演计算公式和算法，编制了相应的计算机程序，对若干典型地电断面作了正演计算. 计算结果说明时间域航空电磁法的探测能力和探测条件，进而为时间域直升机航空电磁系统的设计方案提供了依据.  相似文献   

A Case Study Of An On-Ice Air Flow Over The Arctic Marginal Sea-Ice Zone     

Timo Vihma  Jörg Hartmann  Christof Lüpkes 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2003,107(1):189-217

A case study of warm air advection over the Arctic marginalsea-ice zone is presented, based on aircraft observations with direct flux measurements carriedout in early spring, 1998. A shallow atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) was observed, which wasgradually cooling with distance downwind of the ice edge. This process was mainly connected with astrong stable stratification and downward turbulent heat fluxes of about 10–20 W m^-2, but wasalso due to radiative cooling. Two mesoscale models, one hydrostatic and the other non-hydrostatic,having different turbulence closures, were applied. Despite these fundamental differences betweenthe models, the results of both agreed well with the observed data. Various closure assumptions had amore crucial influence on the results than the differences between the models.Such an assumption was, for example,the parameterization of the surface roughness for momentum (z₀) and heat (z_T). This stronglyaffected the wind and temperature fields not only close to the surface but also within and abovethe temperature inversion layer. The best results were achieved using a formulation for z₀ that took intoaccount the form drag effect of sea-ice ridges together withz_T = 0.1z₀. The stability within theelevated inversion strongly depended on the minimum eddy diffusivity K_min. A simple ad hocparameterization seems applicable, where K_min is calculated as 0.005 timesthe neutral eddy diffusivity. Although the longwave radiative cooling was largest within the ABL, theapplication of a radiation scheme was less important there than above the ABL. This was related to theinteraction of the turbulent and radiative fluxes. To reproduce the strong inversion, it wasnecessary to use vertical and horizontal resolutions higher than those applied in most regional andlarge-scale atmospheric models.  相似文献   

Modelling of the OASIS Energy Flux Measurements Using Two Canopy Concepts     

K. Finkele  J.J. Katzfey  E.A. Kowalczyk  J.L. McGregor  L. Zhang  M.R. Raupach 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2003,107(1):49-79

Two land surface schemes, SCAM and CSIRO9, were used to model the measured energy fluxes during the OASIS (Observations At Several Interacting Scales) field program. The measurements were taken at six sites along a 100 km rainfall gradient. Two types of simulations were conducted: (1) offline simulations forced with measured atmospheric input data at each of the six sites, and (2) regional simulations with the two land surface schemes coupled to the regional climate model DARLAM.The two land surface schemes employ two different canopy modelling concepts: in SCAM the vegetation is conceptually above the ground surface, while CSIRO9 employs the more commonly used `horizontally tiled' approach in which the vegetation cover is modelled by conceptually placing it beside bare ground. Both schemes utilize the same below-ground components (soil hydrological and thermal models) to reduce the comparison to canopy processes only. However, the ground heat flux, soil evaporation and evapotranspiration are parameterised by the two canopy treatments somewhat differently.Both canopy concepts reproduce the measured energy fluxes. SCAM has a slightly higher root-mean standard error in the model-measurement comparison for the ground heat flux. The mean surface radiative temperature simulated by SCAM is approximately 1K lower than in the CSIRO9 simulations. However, the soil and vegetation temperatures (which contribute to the radiative temperature) varied more in the CSIRO9 simulations. These larger variations are due to the absence of a representation of the aerodynamic interactions between vegetation and ground.  相似文献   

Rapid cooling and exhumation of eclogitic rocks from the Great Caucasus, Russia   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

A. PERCHUK  & P. PHILIPPOT 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》1997,15(3):299-310

Diffusion modelling of growth-zoned garnet is used in combination with standard geothermometric and geobarometric techniques to estimate cooling and denudation rates from the mafic eclogites of the Red Cliff area, Great Caucasus, Russia. Euhedral garnet porphyroblasts exhibit different degrees of prograde growth zoning depending on the size of the grain (100 μm to several mm in diameter). Zoning patterns are mainly expressed in terms of Fe–Mg exchange, with 100*Mg/(Mg+Fe) increasing from 18–20 to 33–37 from core to rim. Geothermobarometry yields conditions of 680±40 °C and a minimum of 1.6±0.2 GPa and of 660±40 °C and 0.8±0.2 GPa for the high-pressure and retrograde stages of equilibration, respectively. A temperature of 600±40 °C has been recorded for the late-stage metamorphic overprint in the mica schists surrounding the eclogites. Relaxation of garnet zoning profiles was modelled for three different hypothetical P–T –t trajectories, all with an initial temperature of 680 °C and a pressure change of 0.8 GPa. The first two trajectories involve decompression associated with regular cooling down to 660 °C (near isothermal) and 600 °C. The third path is a two-step trajectory comprising near-isobaric cooling down to 600 °C followed by isothermal decompression to 0.8 GPa. These P–T trajectories cover as wide a range of pressure and temperature changes endured by the rocks as possible, thus representing extreme cases for calculating cooling and exhumation rates. Calculations indicate that the zoning pattern of the smallest garnet (i.e. garnet for which the zoning is most easily eliminated during post-growth processes) along the different paths can be preserved for the following average exhumation and cooling rates: path 1, 143 mm a^?1 and 102 °C Ma^?1; path 2, 60 mm a^?1 and 171 °C Ma^?1; path 3, 11–30 mm a^?1 and 200–400 °C Ma^?1. These results are discussed in light of theoretical P–T–t paths extracted from thermal models of regions of thickened crust, and from analogue models of accretionary wedge and continental lithosphere subduction.  相似文献