Landslide susceptibility mapping for a landslide-prone area (Findikli,NE of Turkey) by likelihood-frequency ratio and weighted linear combination models   总被引：17，自引：0，他引：17  

Aykut Akgun  Serhat Dag  Fikri Bulut 《Environmental Geology》2008,54(6):1127-1143

Landslides are very common natural problems in the Black Sea Region of Turkey due to the steep topography, improper use of land cover and adverse climatic conditions for landslides. In the western part of region, many studies have been carried out especially in the last decade for landslide susceptibility mapping using different evaluation methods such as deterministic approach, landslide distribution, qualitative, statistical and distribution-free analyses. The purpose of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps of a landslide-prone area (Findikli district, Rize) located at the eastern part of the Black Sea Region of Turkey by likelihood frequency ratio (LRM) model and weighted linear combination (WLC) model and to compare the results obtained. For this purpose, landslide inventory map of the area were prepared for the years of 1983 and 1995 by detailed field surveys and aerial-photography studies. Slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, distance from drainage lines, distance from roads and the land-cover of the study area are considered as the landslide-conditioning parameters. The differences between the susceptibility maps derived by the LRM and the WLC models are relatively minor when broad-based classifications are taken into account. However, the WLC map showed more details but the other map produced by LRM model produced weak results. The reason for this result is considered to be the fact that the majority of pixels in the LRM map have high values than the WLC-derived susceptibility map. In order to validate the two susceptibility maps, both of them were compared with the landslide inventory map. Although the landslides do not exist in the very high susceptibility class of the both maps, 79% of the landslides fall into the high and very high susceptibility zones of the WLC map while this is 49% for the LRM map. This shows that the WLC model exhibited higher performance than the LRM model.  相似文献   

Development of a 3D GIS and its application to karst areas   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Qiang Wu  Hua Xu  Wanfang Zhou 《Environmental Geology》2008,54(5):1037-1045

There is a growing interest in modeling and analyzing karst phenomena in three dimensions. This paper integrates geology, groundwater hydrology, geographic information system (GIS), database management system (DBMS), visualization and data mining to study karst features in Huaibei, China. The 3D geo-objects retrieved from the karst area are analyzed and mapped into different abstract levels. The spatial relationships among the objects are constructed by a dual-linker. The shapes of the 3D objects and the topological models with attributes are stored and maintained in the DBMS. Spatial analysis was then used to integrate the data in the DBMS and the 3D model to form a virtual reality (VR) to provide analytical functions such as distribution analysis, correlation query, and probability assessment. The research successfully implements 3D modeling and analyses in the karst area, and meanwhile provides an efficient tool for government policy-makers to set out restrictions on water resource development in the area.  相似文献   

Multiple discriminant analysis of the Drava River alluvial plain sediments     

Zoran Peh  Robert Šajn  Josip Halamić  Lidija Galović 《Environmental Geology》2008,55(7):1519-1535

Three discriminant function models are raised and cross-compared in order to distinguish geochemical patterns characteristic for the Drava River floodplain sediments. Based on data representing total element concentrations in samples collected from alluvium (A), terrace (T), and unconsolidated bedrock (B) at the border of a floodplain, four element clusters emerged accounting for discrimination between the referred groups of sediments. The most prominent is contaminant/carbonate cluster characteristic for alluvium. The other two are: silicate cluster typical for unconsolidated geological substrate (Neogene sedimentary rocks); and naturally dispersed heavy metal cluster separating terrace from the former two groups. Models introducing depth intervals and single profiles as grouping criteria reveal identical sediment-heavy metal matrices. The second important issue of this paper is possibility of reclassification of samples originally assigned to one of the a priori defined groups of sediments, based on established geochemical pattern. The mapped geological units can be reconsidered by the post hoc assignments to a different group if geological border between alluvium and terrace or between terrace and bedrock can not be established geologically with absolute certainty.  相似文献   

Evaluation of rock-mass permeability tensor and prediction of tunnel inflows by means of geostructural surveys and finite element seepage analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

N. Coli  G. Pranzini  A. Alfi  V. Boerio 《Engineering Geology》2008,101(3-4):174-184

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Quantitative textural analysis of packings of elongate crystals     

John F. Rudge  Marian B. Holness  Graham C. Smith 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2008,156(4):413-429

The spatial distribution of grains in a solidifying igneous rock controls the physical properties of the crystal mush, and in turn is controlled by the rate of crystal growth and accumulation. A predominant non-spherical habit for igneous minerals brings into question the use of spherical particles in reference packings used for quantification of spatial distribution. Furthermore, variations of crystal clustering/ordering with length scale require spatial statistics which take into account the distribution of particles beyond nearest neighbours. Using random close packings of spherocylinders, we demonstrate the importance of aspect ratio for the aggregation index (usually known as R) and show that packings of spherical particles have more structure than packings of rods. The spatial distribution functions demonstrate that the plagioclase grains in the colonnade from the Holyoke basalt are clustered on a length scale of 0.5 mm. Understanding the controls on grain spatial distribution in igneous rocks will depend on the application of these techniques to well-understood environments.  相似文献   

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?     

Jens-Uwe Klügel   《Earth》2008,88(1-2):1-32

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.  相似文献   

Controls on porphyroblast size along a regional metamorphic field gradient     

David M. Hirsch 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2008,155(4):401-415

Garnet-bearing schists from the Waterville Formation of south-central Maine provide an opportunity to examine the factors governing porphyroblast size over a range of metamorphic grade. Three-dimensional sizes and locations for all garnet porphyroblasts were determined for three samples along the metamorphic field gradient spanning lowest garnet through sillimanite grade, using high-resolution X-ray computed tomography. Comparison of crystal size distributions to previous data sets obtained by stereological methods for the same samples reveals significant differences in mode, mean, and shape of the distributions. Quantitative textural analysis shows that the garnets in each rock crystallized in a diffusion-controlled nucleation and growth regime. In contrast to the typical observation of a correlation between porphyroblast size and position along a metamorphic field gradient, porphyroblast size of the lowest-grade specimen is intermediate between the high- and middle-grade specimens’ sizes. Mean porphyroblast size does not correlate with peak temperatures from garnet-biotite Fe-Mg exchange thermometry, nor is post-crystallization annealing (Ostwald Ripening) required to produce the observed textures, as was previously proposed for these rocks. Robust pseudosection calculations fail to reproduce the observed garnet core compositions for two specimens, suggesting that these calc-pelites experienced metasomatism. For each of these two specimens, Monte Carlo calculations suggest potential pre-metasomatism bulk compositions that replicate garnet core compositions. Pseudosection analyses allow the estimation of the critical temperatures for garnet growth: ∼481, ∼477, and ∼485°C for the lowest-garnet-zone, middle-garnet-zone, and sillimanite-zone specimens, respectively. Porphyroblast size appears to be determined in this case by a combination of the heating rate during garnet crystallization, the critical temperature for the garnet-forming reaction and the kinetics of nucleation. Numerical simulations of thermally accelerated, diffusion-controlled nucleation, and growth for the three samples closely match measured crystal size distributions. These observations and simulations suggest that previous hypotheses linking the garnet size primarily to the temperature at the onset of porphyroblast nucleation can only partially explain the observed textures. Also important in determining porphyroblast size are the heating rate and the distribution of favorable nucleation sites.  相似文献   

Framing in geographical analysis of environmental conflicts: Theory, methodology and three case studies     

Deborah F. Shmueli 《Geoforum》2008,39(6):2048-2061

When applied to environmental concerns, framing offers a rigorous conceptual and analytic approach with potentially practical significance for dealing with complex issues relevant to geography. The purpose of this article is to introduce framing concepts, typology and modes of analysis to address issues which geographers commonly treat: disputes over land ownership and uses, competition for water resources, cultural clashes over control of territory and resources and the impact of spatial patterns and structures when siting noxious sites. Framing analysis is applied to three cases of environmental conflict in Israel and, more generally, for understanding conflicts revolving around the management of human habitats in relation to the physical environment.  相似文献   

Correlation of the Jurassic-Cretaceous siliceous-volcanogenic sediments in northwestern surroundings of the Pacific (Koryak Upland)     

V. S. Vishnevskaya  N. I. Filatova 《Stratigraphy and Geological Correlation》2008,16(6):618-638

In distribution areas of the Pekul’neiveem and Chirynai formations customary distinguishable in the Koryak Upland, complicated tectonostratigraphic units are composed of alternating thrust sheets of different lithologic composition and age, which are juxtaposed because of widespread thrust faulting, as is proved by the radiolarian analysis. Nineteen radiolarian assemblages of different age are first established here in the Lower Jurassic-Hauterivian succession of siliceous-volcanogenic sediments. In the Lower Jurassic interval, the lower and upper Hettangian, lower and upper Sinemurian, and Pliensbachian beds are recognized. Paleontological characterization is also presented for the Aalenian (or Toarcian?-Aalenian), upper Bajocian, lower and upper Bathonian, and Callovian beds of the Middle Jurassic. Within the Upper Jurassic, the Oxfordian-early Kimmeridgian, late Kimmeridgian-early Tithonian, Tithonian, and late Tithonian-early Berriasian radiolarian assemblages are distinguished. The late Berriasian-early Valanginian, middle-late Valanginian, and Hauterivian radiolarian assemblages are first recognized or compositionally revised. Radiolarians and lithofacies data are used to correlate the tectonostratigraphic units and individualize the jasper-alkali basaltic (lower Hettangian), chert-terrigenous (Hettangian-Sinemurian), jasper-cherty (Pliensbachian-Aalenian), jasper (Bajocian-Hauterivian), jasper-basaltic (upper Bajocian-Valanginian), Fe-Ti basaltic (upper Bajocian-Bathonian), tuffitejasper-basaltic (Bathonian-Hauterivian), and terrigenous-volcanogenic (Bajocian-Valanginian) sequences. The correlation results are extrapolated into other continental areas flanking the Pacific, i.e., to the western Kamchatka, northern and northwestern coastal areas of the Sea of Okhotsk, where the analogous radiolarian assemblages are characteristic of comparable allochthonous units of terrigenous-siliceous-volcanogenic sediments.  相似文献   

Feasibility of pre-earthquake strengthening of buildings based on cost-benefit and life-cycle cost analysis, with the aid of fragility curves   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Andreas J. Kappos  E. G. Dimitrakopoulos 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(1):33-54

There are two fundamental questions this article aims to deal with. First, whether a pre-earthquake strengthening of a large and heterogeneous building stock (the emphasis here is on building types common in S. Europe), is economically feasible or not, and second what is the optimal retrofit level for mitigating the seismic risk. To this purpose contemporary decision making tools, namely cost-benefit and life-cycle cost analyses, are tailored to the needs of the present study, and implemented with the aid of an ad-hoc developed new software application (COBE06). A method for estimating the reduction in structural vulnerability due to retrofit is proposed, as well as a methodology to determine the optimum retrofit level using the fragility curve approach. Finally, the proposed methodology is used in a pilot application that concerns the city of Thessaloniki, and results are drawn for the feasibility of strengthening the reinforced concrete building stock in this city.  相似文献