Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland     

Erik Rüttener  Juan José Egozcue  Dieter Mayer-Rosa  Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.  相似文献   

RATIONAL UTILIZATION OF MOUNTAIN SOILS IN SOUTHEAST QINGHAI-XIZANG (TIBETAN)PLATEAU     

Li Mingsen 《地理学报(英文版)》1996,(4)

ISoil-fo~gEnvironmentandMainSoilTrocsThesoLItheastQinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)PlateauwheretheHengduanMoUnains,eastempartoftheThmalayanandNyainqentanglhamoUnainsarelocatedextendsfrom25'to34"Nand92'to1O5'Ewithanareaof5OO,OOOkm',oraboutone-fiffooftheentireQinghai-XiZangPlateau.ItisatransitionalzoneofdeePdisseCtedmoUntainseXtendingsoutheastWardpenpherallowlandsandwichedin-betWeenSichuanBasinandcentralYunnanPlateau.Whletheterrainofthesmponinclinestosoutheast,thealtitudeofthevaIleysraises…  相似文献   

黄河影响下开封城市的历史演变   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李润田  丁圣彦  李志恒 《地域研究与开发》2006,25(6):1-7

河流对城市的形成和发展起着重要的作用,古人形象地把其比喻为“城市之血脉”。文章从不同的历史时期黄河及其分支对开封城市演变的影响进行分析,得出黄河与开封城市的关系存在着利与害的统一。开封城市的历史发展,即得益于黄河充足的水源,又受害于其频繁的决溢、泛滥、改道。因此,要采用先进的科学技术对黄河进行综合治理开发,使其恢复它应有的美好环境,更好地造福于人民。  相似文献   

中国古代常规日食记录的整理分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

刘次沅 《时间频率学报》2006,29(2):151-160

收集并分析了公元前8世纪到公元15世纪的中国古代密集、简略而公式化的日食记录。基于这些记录整理成一个包括938条日食记录的计算机可读形式的“常规日食记录表”。该表给出每次记录的原日期、公历日期、当时首都、所属朝代以及一部分记录所载的进一步详情。对该表的构成作了介绍,并对这些历史记录进行了初步的分析和归纳。  相似文献   

湘阴县氏族移民地理研究（121¹735年）     

龚胜生  于颖 《地理研究》2006,25(6):1096-1106

历史人口迁移是历史时期区域人地关系演变的最直接的动力。通过对121¹375年间湘阴县外来氏族移民过程与空间分布的分析,发现:他们无论是直接迁入还是辗转迁入,绝大多数都是为了土地和生存而来;67.2%的氏族祖籍江西,地缘上的亲和力和血缘上的凝聚力导致了氏族移民迁出地的邻近性和入居地的集聚性;69.6%的外来氏族在明代迁入,后唐同光年间,元末明初,明末清初为三个氏族移民高峰期;不同时期有着不同的氏族移民来源地,不同时期的氏族移民入居到不同的地理空间。随着时间的推移,湘阴县氏族移民入居地从丘陵平原向河湖滩地拓展的演变,反映了湘阴县域乃至整个洞庭湖区从丘陵到平原再到湖区的区域开发过程。  相似文献   

山区生态县区域协调发展的机制构建--以粤北始兴县为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

税伟  陈烈  唐常春 《山地学报》2006,24(1):70-78

区域协调机制在不同类型地域和一种类型地域的不同的发展阶段是不同的。始兴县作为一个典型的山区生态县,工业进入加速发展时期,在此经济发展阶段的区域协调问题主要表现在:与外部区域经济、社会发展差距拉大,工业化与流域生态环境保护的矛盾已开始凸现,县政府协调区域发展的财政能力较低,区域协调机制不健全等。由此对始兴县的区域协调机制进行建构:建立健全多层次的区域协调机构;加大纵向和横向政府财政转移支付的力度;加强与相邻相关地区的协调;实施区域空间管治协调,保护城乡生态环境;科学合理选择产业,大力发展循环经济;全县推行绿色GDP考核等。  相似文献   

Lichen-dominated soil crusts as arthropod habitat in warm deserts   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

J.S. Lalley  H.A. Viles  J.R. Henschel  V. Lalley 《Journal of Arid Environments》2006,67(4):579-593

Soil crust lichens can be the dominant vegetation in arid lands, yet their importance as habitat to secondary producers is relatively unknown. This study examines the distribution of arthropod communities in the northern Namib Desert to evaluate whether a lichen-rich area is more or less productive than adjacent habitats in terms of the consumers each supports. Arthropods are diverse and highly endemic in the Namib Desert and lichens dominate this desert's extensive gravel plains. We sampled lichen-rich, dwarf shrub, and unvegetated sites and found distinct arthropod assemblages in the lichen-dominated sites, including species unique to lichen sites. Arthropod assemblages in two of the lichen sites were similar to those found in the dwarf shrub site. In a canonical correspondence analysis, crustose lichens and overall lichen cover were key in driving the variance in arthropod assemblages within the lichen sites. Furthermore, lichen morphotypes, overall lichen cover and species richness, were significantly correlated with the representation of arthropod subgroups and arthropod species richness. These findings provide evidence that lichen-dominated soil crusts in the Namib Desert are important supporters of secondary production, warranting more in-depth studies into the ecology and conservation of this lichen-rich habitat in warm deserts.  相似文献   

Integrated Approaches,Multiple Scales: Snag Dynamics in Burned Versus Unburned Landscapes*     

Joy Nystrom Mast  Carol L. Chambers 《The Professional geographer》2006,58(4):397-405

By studying landscape form and patterns, we can study processes at multiple scales and determine how collectively those processes inform us about function(s). Integrating landscape ecology from a biogeographical perspective with geographic information science (GIScience) practices offers new ways to study how landscapes change over time and space, including how they can be measured, analyzed, and modeled for management needs. This article presents methodologies and selected results of analyzing spatial patterns from field data across multiple scales by examining standing dead tree (snag) processes across wildfire‐disturbed landscapes in Arizona. Our primary motivation was to illustrate a particular type of work benefiting from the coalescing of landscape ecology and GIScience, functioning at the methodological and practical overlap of these two contributing fields. Our management goals were to (1) describe spatial patterns and characteristics of snags in pairs of burned and unburned ponderosa pine forests of Arizona in four recent (within the past ten years) wildfires, (2) document bird response to wildfires by combining landscape ecology and GIScience methods, and (3) link these patterns to snag monitoring plots and cavity‐nesting bird use to predict the probability of snag use by birds and cavity nesters based on snag characteristics (snag use model). The methods and results demonstrate how integration of landscape ecology with both GIS and GIScience improves the ways to study landscapes and land management issues, in this case offering guidelines for retention of snags that provide habitat for wildlife.  相似文献   

Kaleidoscoping Landscapes,Shifting Perspectives     

Kenneth R. Young  Richard Aspinall 《The Professional geographer》2006,58(4):436-447

Landscapes change in complex ways, creating surface patterns reminiscent of forms seen through a kaleidoscope. On the Earth's surface, those forms are linked to, and caused by, processes that originate with bedrock‐soil‐vegetation‐atmosphere interactions. Human‐caused alterations to landscapes are additionally tied to socioeconomic processes. Evaluation of landscape‐level processes can benefit from examining (1) the influence of disturbance regimes in altering landscape patterns, (2) the importance of considering surficial processes, (3) the subtle and cryptic spatial relations that may be present, (4) the reciprocal relationships among local processes and regional consequences, (5) the increased likelihood of some land cover transitions compared to others, and (6) the special case of landscapes with long histories of human use. These are all examples of potential fruitful arenas for interactions and represent a path for expansion of landscape ecology through accommodation of a broad range of content covered by the international GIScience community.  相似文献   

Historical Auckland on foot     

Gordon M. Winder  Matthew Henry 《New Zealand geographer》2006,62(1):84-88

Abstract:  This paper discusses three walking tour guides prepared for the 12th International Conference of Historical Geographers. It argues that the guides are innovative in terms of format, content and ironic sensibility. It construes them as devices for re-imagining Auckland's urban heritage.  相似文献