Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea     

P. Sebastio  C. Guedes Soares 《Ocean Engineering》2007,34(3-4):576-584

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.  相似文献   

Simulation of Pollutant Transport in Marmaris Bay     

Lale BALAS 《中国海洋工程》2001,(4):565-578

The circulation pattern and the pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay are simulated by the developed three-dimensional baroclinic model. The Marmaris Bay is located at the Mediterranean Sea coast of Turkey. Since the sp ring tidal range is typically 20- 30 cm, the dominant forcing for the circulation and water exchange is due to the wind action. In the Marmaris Bay, there is sea outfall discharging directly into the bay. and that threats the bay water quality significantly. The current patterns in the vicinity of the outfall have been observed by tracking drogues which are moved by currents at different water depths. In the simulations of pollutant transport, the coliforms-counts is used as the tracer. The model provides realistic predictions for the circulation and pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay. The transport model component predictions well agree with the results of a laboratory model study.  相似文献   

Temporal variations in benthic communities and their response to physicochemical forcing: a numerical approach   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Triantafyllou  G.; Petihakis  G.; Dounas  C.; Koutsoubas  D.; Arvanitidis  C.; Eleftheriou  A. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2000,57(5):1507-1516

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Probabilistic methods for marine ecological risk assessment     

Schobben  H. P. M.; Scholten  M. C. Th. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1993,50(4):349-358

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Evaluating fishery impacts using metrics of community structure   总被引：8，自引：14，他引：8  

Rice  Jake C. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2000,57(3):682-688

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贡湖及其相关水域风生流模拟研究   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

姜加虎 《海洋湖沼通报》1997,(4):1-7

在太湖风生流的数值模拟研究的基础上，设计模拟贡湖及其相关水域风生流的套网格数值模式。应用该模式研究不同风情下，梅梁湖，太湖主体湖水对贡湖的影响。  相似文献   

雾水的D和¹⁸O同位素研究进展   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孙自永  程国栋  马瑞  甘义群 《地球科学进展》2008,23(8):794-802

凝结水的D、¹⁸O同位素研究目前主要集中在雾水方面,露水和土壤吸附水的相关研究仍属空白。由于形成时的温度较高,大多数雾水的D、¹⁸O同位素较当地雨水富集,但不同类型雾的同位素特征存在差异。平流式海洋雾为单级的蒸发—冷凝封闭循环系统的首次凝结,D、¹⁸O同位素较当地雨水显著富集;热带云雾林中的地形雾与降雨同时发生,且水分源于同一云团,δD、δ¹⁸O值差异较小;内陆辐射雾因部分水汽源于当地水分的再循环,过量氘和δD、δ¹⁸O值高于降雨。目前有少量研究用D、¹⁸O同位素指示雾水对植被、地下水和地表径流的补给作用,但以定性分析为主,基于端元混合模型的定量评价极少。露水和土壤吸附水的稳定同位素研究是干旱区凝结水研究的重要方向;D、¹⁸O同位素与其它同位素或化学指标的结合有助于促进凝结水生态水文效应的研究进展;短间隔、高密度的长期观测和用于稳定同位素分析的凝结水采样器的设计是需要进一步开展的工作。  相似文献   

From 2D TO 3D Through Modelling Based On A Single Image     

Diego  Gonzalez-Aguilera  Javier  Gomez-Lahoz 《The Photogrammetric Record》2008,23(122):208-227

Three-dimensional modelling from single images remains an interesting topic of investigation in the research community, even though range sensors are becoming a common alternative for the generation of 3D information. The interest in single-image-based modelling is motivated by a wide spectrum of applications such as cultural heritage, civil engineering, urban planning and even criminology. In this paper a complete new production flowline is presented for modelling based on a single image. The modelling process consists of a series of familiar steps in photogrammetry and computer vision: feature extraction, vanishing point computation, camera self-calibration, 3D reconstruction and dimensional analysis. In particular, the methodology developed for single-image-based modelling takes a scientific approach combining several proven techniques with robust estimators. Finally, in order to demonstrate its capabilities, the reported examples include several real situations applied in different contexts.  相似文献   

A data-driven approach to local gravity field modelling using spherical radial basis functions   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

R. Klees  R. Tenzer  I. Prutkin  T. Wittwer 《Journal of Geodesy》2008,82(8):457-471

We propose a methodology for local gravity field modelling from gravity data using spherical radial basis functions. The methodology comprises two steps: in step 1, gravity data (gravity anomalies and/or gravity disturbances) are used to estimate the disturbing potential using least-squares techniques. The latter is represented as a linear combination of spherical radial basis functions (SRBFs). A data-adaptive strategy is used to select the optimal number, location, and depths of the SRBFs using generalized cross validation. Variance component estimation is used to determine the optimal regularization parameter and to properly weight the different data sets. In the second step, the gravimetric height anomalies are combined with observed differences between global positioning system (GPS) ellipsoidal heights and normal heights. The data combination is written as the solution of a Cauchy boundary-value problem for the Laplace equation. This allows removal of the non-uniqueness of the problem of local gravity field modelling from terrestrial gravity data. At the same time, existing systematic distortions in the gravimetric and geometric height anomalies are also absorbed into the combination. The approach is used to compute a height reference surface for the Netherlands. The solution is compared with NLGEO2004, the official Dutch height reference surface, which has been computed using the same data but a Stokes-based approach with kernel modification and a geometric six-parameter “corrector surface” to fit the gravimetric solution to the GPS-levelling points. A direct comparison of both height reference surfaces shows an RMS difference of 0.6 cm; the maximum difference is 2.1 cm. A test at independent GPS-levelling control points, confirms that our solution is in no way inferior to NLGEO2004.  相似文献   

城区水文循环机制与改善策略分析          下载免费PDF全文

廖朝轩  詹丽梅  陈家梁  邱奕儒 《水科学进展》2008,19(1):49-53

在城区化过程中,由于人口快速成长且集中,随之而来的建筑物、道路等不透水面密度增加,导致地下水补给减少及破坏水文循环。为了解土地利用方式改变对长期水文量影响,建立一个适宜的城区水循环模式是非常重要的。选定台湾台北的六馆抽水站集水区进行分析,模式参数经过敏感度分析、率定与验证。采用改变不同透水铺面设置比例的方案,评估其对径流量、入渗量、蒸发散量的改变。并分析设置不同比例屋顶雨水贮集系统对地表径流量及供水量的改变。所建立的城区水循环模式是评估土地利用改变造成水文量的改变的一个有效工具,并可提供决策者做为城区土地利用决策的参考。  相似文献