Modelling observed and future runoff from a glacierized tropical catchment (Cordillera Blanca, Perú)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Irmgard Juen  Georg Kaser  Christian Georges 《Global and Planetary Change》2007,59(1-4):37

Monthly runoff from the 34.3% glacierized tropical catchment of Llanganuco in the tropical Cordillera Blanca, Perú, is successfully simulated and compared with a measured 44 year time series. In the investigation area, the climate is characterized by all-year round homogenous temperature conditions and a strong variability in air humidity and moisture content of the atmosphere. Thus, contrary to the mid latitudes, the seasonal variation in glacier melt strongly depends on moisture-related variables, rather than on air temperature. The here presented ITGG-2.0-R model aims for these requirements. The lack of moisture-related input data other than precipitation demands for an intermediate calibration step. Net shortwave radiation, the emissivity of the atmosphere and a sublimation/melt ratio are related to precipitation amounts. Runoff is well simulated and correlates with the measured record with r² = 0.76. Seasonally obtained r² are only slightly smaller. On a long-term, the cumulative deviation is minor, and the mean annual cycle of runoff is reproduced rather well (r² = 0.99). Based on four different IPCC climate change scenarios, future runoff is simulated. All runoff scenarios are modelled for the respective steady-state glacier extent. This leads to a reduction in the glacier size and a decreased amount of glacier melt. On the other hand, direct runoff increases due to larger glacier free areas. Consequently, mean annual runoff remains almost unchanged, but the seasonality intensifies considerably with more runoff during the wet and less runoff during the dry season.  相似文献   

Lateral flow thresholds for aspen forested hillslopes on the Western Boreal Plain,Alberta, Canada     

T. E. Redding  K. J. Devito 《水文研究》2008,22(21):4287-4300

To predict the long‐term sustainability of water resources on the Boreal Plain region of northern Alberta, it is critical to understand when hillslopes generate runoff and connect with surface waters. The sub‐humid climate (P ≤ ET) and deep glacial sediments of this region result in large available soil storage capacity relative to moisture surpluses or deficits, leading to threshold‐dependent rainfall‐runoff relationships. Rainfall simulation experiments were conducted using large magnitude and high intensity applications to examine the thresholds in precipitation and soil moisture that are necessary to generate lateral flow from hillslope runoff plots representative of Luvisolic soils and an aspen canopy. Two adjacent plots (areas of 2·95 and 3·4 m²) of contrasting antecedent moisture conditions were examined; one had tree root uptake excluded for two months to increase soil moisture content, while the second plot allowed tree uptake over the growing season resulting in drier soils. Vertical flow as drainage and soil moisture storage dominated the water balances of both plots. Greater lateral flow occurred from the plot with higher antecedent moisture content. Results indicate that a minimum of 15–20 mm of rainfall is required to generate lateral flow, and only after the soils have been wetted to a depth of 0·75 m (C‐horizon). The depth and intensity of rainfall events that generated runoff > 1 mm have return periods of 25 years or greater and, when combined with the need for wet antecendent conditions, indicate that lateral flow generation on these hillslopes will occur infrequently. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Subglacial drainage system structure and morphology of Brewster Glacier,New Zealand     

Ian Willis  Wendy Lawson  Ian Owens  Bob Jacobel  Jenny Autridge 《水文研究》2009,23(3):384-396

A global positioning system and ground penetrating radar surveys is used to produce digital elevation models of the surface and bed of Brewster Glacier. These are used to derive maps of subglacial hydraulic potential and drainage system structure using three different assumptions about the subglacial water pressure (P_w): (i) P_w = ice overburden; (ii) P_w = half ice overburden; (iii) P_w = atmospheric. Additionally, 16 dye‐tracing experiments at 12 locations were performed through a summer melt season. Dye return curve shape, together with calculations of transit velocity, dispersivity and storage, are used to infer the likely morphology of the subglacial drainage system. Taken together, the data indicate that the glacier is underlain by a channelised but hydraulically inefficient drainage system in the early summer in which water pressures are close to ice overburden. By mid‐summer, water pressures are closer to half‐ice overburden and the channelised drainage system is more hydraulically efficient. Surface streams that enter the glacier close to the location of major subglacial drainage pathways are routed quickly to the channels and then to the glacier snout. Streams that enter the glacier further away from the drainage pathways are routed slowly to the channels and then to the snout because they first flow through a distributed drainage system. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

南渡江河口洪、枯季节水文泥沙变化特征及台风“海鸥”对入海水沙的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈斌  高飞  印萍  刘金庆 《海洋与湖沼》2015,46(6):1279-1291

基于2014年最新的洪、枯季节实测资料,分析了南渡江河口海域水文泥沙的季节性变化特征,借助台风"海鸥"过境期间的河道监测数据,研究了台风天气造成的洪水事件对河流入海水沙通量的影响。研究结果表明:(1)洪、枯季节河口海域的水体层化作用不强,洪季的水温高于枯季,但盐度低于枯季。水温呈现向海递减的趋势,而盐度整体分布较为均匀;(2)河口水体含沙量近岸大于远岸,枯季河口三角洲泥沙向西输运。洪季含沙量明显高于枯季,大量泥沙在台风季节被冲刷入海,而后向海或向西输运扩散;(3)河口海域为不规则全日潮,呈现东西向往复流特征。温度、盐度和浊度均呈现较强的潮汐性变化特征;(4)枯季河道内存在明显的盐水楔,锋面处的垂向梯度很大,在口门向陆大约12—15 km以远的河道水体不再受潮汐影响;(5)台风"海鸥"影响下,南渡江洪峰期间的径流量和含沙量均远远超过多年平均值,反映了南渡江河口地区"台风季节"的特点。  相似文献   

试论气候变化对我国水资源的影响     

范伶俐 《气象研究与应用》2002,23(4):43-44

从水文系统的降水、蒸发、径流和土壤水分及水资源系统供水、需水和水资源管理等方面综述了区域水文水资源对气候变化的响应,提出了作者的看法。  相似文献   

Capturing temporal variability for estimates of annual hydrochemical export from a first‐order agricultural catchment in southern Ontario,Canada     

M. L. Macrae  M. C. English  S. L. Schiff  M. Stone 《水文研究》2007,21(13):1651-1663

This 2‐year study (2000, 2001) reports annual nutrient (phosphorus, nitrate) export from a first‐order agricultural watershed in southern Ontario based on an intensive monitoring programme. The importance of storm and melt events in annual export estimates is demonstrated and the temporal variability in nutrient loading during events is related to processes occurring within the catchment. The feasibility of predicting event‐related nutrient export from hydrometric data is explored. The importance of sampling frequency throughout events is also shown. Export of total phosphorus (TP), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and nitrate ( ) for 2000 and 2001 averaged 0·35 kg ha^?1 year^?1, 0·09 kg ha^?1 year^?1, and 35 kg ha^?1 year^?1 (as N) respectively. Approximately 75% of annual TP export, 80% of annual SRP export and 70% of annual export occurred during 28 events per year. A small number of large‐magnitude events (>34 mm) accounted for 18–42% of annual TP export, 0–61% of annual SRP export and 13–33% of annual NO export. Our results show that temporal variability in nutrient export is largely governed by discharge in this basin, and export can be predicted from discharge. SRP and TP export can also be predicted from discharge, but only for events that are not large in magnitude. The sampling interval throughout events is important in obtaining precise estimates of nutrient export, as infrequent sampling intervals may over‐ or under‐estimate nutrient export by ± 45% per event for P. This study improves our understanding of and P export patterns and our ability to predict or model them by relating temporal variability in event nutrient export to discharge and processes occurring within the basin, and also by exploring the significance of sampling interval in the context of the importance of individual events, season and temporal variability during events. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sediment records as archives of the Late Pleistocene-Holocene hydrological change in the alluvial Narmada River basin, western India     

Alpa Sridhar  L.S. Chamyal 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2010,121(2):195-202

The rivers of western India are monsoon dominated and have been so throughout the late Quaternary. Sediment accumulation in these river basins has been controlled by climatic and tectonic changes over a time span from the Late Pleistocene to the recent. The lithofacies assemblages associated with the various sediment archives in the Narmada basin range from the boulders of the alluvial fans to overbank fines on the alluvial plains. Estimates, based on clast size, of stream power and competence, bed shear stress and discharge reveal that hydrological conditions during the Late Pleistocene (∼90 ka) were comparable to the present day. The size of the transported clasts and the thickness of the accumulated sediment indicate the influence of basin subsidence rather than an increase in discharge. Discharge estimates based on sedimentary structures preserved in the alluvial-plain facies suggest that the channel had a persistent flow, with a low width-depth ratio and large meander wavelength. The hydrological changes during the Holocene are more pronounced where the early Holocene is marked by a high-intensity hydrological regime that induced erosion and incision of the earlier sediments. The mid-Holocene stream channel was less sinuous and had a higher width-depth ratio and a higher meander amplitude in comparison with the present-day channel. Palaeo-fluvial reconstructions based on the sediment archives in the alluvial reach of the river basin are important tools in understanding the long-term hydrological changes and the intricate fluvial architecture preserved in the Narmada River basin ensures scope for detailed studies to identify phases of weak and enhanced hydrological regimes.  相似文献   

“海翼号”水下滑翔机盐度数据的热滞后效应偏差订正方法探讨          下载免费PDF全文

杨得厚  靖春生  黄奖 《应用海洋学学报》2022,41(1):156-165

水下滑翔机可以高效地观测海水的温度、盐度和压强等海洋参数,但由于热滞后效应,盐度数据,特别是在温度梯度较大的温跃层,会出现一定程度的偏差。本研究选取了3种目前常用的盐度热滞后订正方法,对带泵的“海翼号”水下滑翔机,于2019年8月在中北太平洋所观测的盐度数据因热滞后效应引起的偏差进行订正处理,与船载911型温盐深测量仪(Instrument for Measuring Conductivity Temperature and Depth,CTD)观测盐度进行对比,在比较了3种方法对滑翔机盐度订正前后下降和上升剖面偏差的减少程度、订正后剖面与船载CTD观测剖面的偏差大小和下降上升温盐曲线(T-S曲线)的一致程度后,得出了水下滑翔机盐度订正的最优方法,即在订正电导池中实际温度的前提下,采用计算机图形分割方法,最小化滑翔机机载CTD测得的下降和上升两个剖面T-S曲线围成面积所确定的目标函数,来确定合适的热滞后修正振幅和时间常数,从而修正下降和上升两个剖面之间盐度偏差。  相似文献   

水下滑翔机在识别水团新结构中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

田永青  陈航宇  周喜武  潘爱军  邱云 《应用海洋学学报》2022,41(2):240-248

本研究基于中国科学院沈阳自动化研究所自主研发的水下滑翔机在热带东太平洋观测获取的连续剖面温盐数据,并通过与多套不同数据的比测,证实国产水下滑翔机观测的温盐数据准确可靠,未来可大范围应用于深海大洋。观测结果首次发现该海域北太平洋中央水（NPCW）（50~100 m）的60~80 m层分布着中间层低盐水,分析认为该低盐水来源于水团下方的加利福尼亚流系水（CCS）,中间层低盐水形成的动力机制主要受跃层附近的内波控制,并与内波强度密切相关,同时受上层（20~60 m）障碍层的影响,该中间层低盐水仅仅出现在60~80 m。本研究发现内波与障碍层能够通过影响动能与热能的传输进而促进水团新结构的形成,相关成果丰富了内波与障碍层对上层海洋响应的研究,具有重要的科学价值。  相似文献   

降雨径流与洪水淹没模型耦合的应用研究     

沈泽宇  丁永生  孔乔 《地球信息科学学报》2021,23(8):1473-1483

洪水研究包括径流与淹没两种模式。为了探究流域降雨产汇流与淹没情况、提高洪水预报精度,本研究在传统流域水文模型的基础上耦合二维水动力学模型,建立水文-水动力耦合模型。以我国吉林温德河流域为研究实例,模拟了2017年“7·13”洪水在下游口前镇所处子流域洪水淹没过程。首先对基础数据进行预处理,建立HEC-HMS水文模型并进行参数优化后,最终获得流量过程水文结果作为水动力学模型边界条件,之后建立HEC-RAS二维水动力学模型对重要子流域进行淹没模拟。耦合模型计算结果显示,水文模型经多参数优化流量模拟的NSE系数为0.988,水动力计算最大淹没水深达9.3 m相对误差为-5.2%。从泛洪模拟结果来看,子流域上游部分的农田大量被淹,淹没水深范围在0.5~2.0 m,平均流速基本在1 m/s以下。下游口前镇内最大淹没水深接近1 m,水流速度0.2 m/s至1.5 m/s,与实际的淹没情况相吻合。研究表明,所建水文水动力耦合模型模拟计算的结果准确率较高,对具有复杂水文、水力条件的流域的洪水预报具有重要的指导意义。  相似文献