Stability of an immersed tunnel in offshore conditions under deep water wave impact     

T. Kasper  J.S. Steenfelt  L.M. Pedersen  P.G. Jackson  R.W.M.G. Heijmans 《Coastal Engineering》2008

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A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Matthew J. Purvis  Paul D. Bates  Christopher M. Hayes 《Coastal Engineering》2008,55(12):1062-1073

In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities.  相似文献   

Predicting suitable habitat for the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa (Scleractinia)     

Andrew J. Davies  Max Wisshak  James C. Orr  J. Murray Roberts   《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2008,55(8):1048-1062

Ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) was applied to the reef framework-forming cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa. The environmental tolerances of this species were assessed using readily available oceanographic data, including physical, chemical, and biological variables. L. pertusa was found at mean depths of 468 and 480 m on the regional and global scales and occupied a niche that included higher than average current speed and productivity, supporting the theory that their limited food supply is locally enhanced by currents. Most records occurred in areas with a salinity of 35, mean temperatures of 6.2–6.7  °C and dissolved oxygen levels of 6.0–6.2 ml l⁻¹. The majority of records were found in areas that were saturated with aragonite but had low concentration of nutrients (silicate, phosphate, and nitrate). Suitable habitat for L. pertusa was predicted using ENFA on a global and a regional scale that incorporated the north-east Atlantic Ocean. Regional prediction was reliable due to numerous presence points throughout the area, whereas global prediction was less reliable due to the paucity of presence data outside of the north-east Atlantic. However, the species niche was supported at each spatial scale. Predicted maps at the global scale reinforced the general consensus that the North Atlantic Ocean is a key region in the worldwide distribution of L. pertusa. Predictive modelling is an approach that can be applied to cold-water coral species to locate areas of suitable habitat for further study. It may also prove a useful tool to assist spatial planning of offshore marine protected areas. However, issues with eco-geographical datasets, including their coarse resolution and limited geographical coverage, currently restrict the scope of this approach.  相似文献   

Mapping large, shallow inlets and bays: modelling a Natura 2000 habitat with digital terrain and wave-exposure models     

Bekkby  Trine; Isaeus  Martin 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2008,65(2):238-241

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Developing a conceptual model of marine farming in New Zealand     

Hamish G. Rennie  Roger White  Lars Brabyn 《Marine Policy》2009

Survey and Geographic Information System (GIS) data analysis describes the relative influence of biophysical and human variables on site choices made by marine farmers in New Zealand. Community conflicts have grown in importance in determining farm location and different government planning strategies leave distinct signature patterns. Recent legislation empowers local governments to choose among three strategies for future regional aquaculture development. This paper suggests each strategy could result in different spatial outcomes. Simulation modelling of the type described here can provide a better understanding of farmer responses to management approaches and the range of futures that could result from planning choices made today.  相似文献   

Long-term numerical evolution of the nitrogen bulk content in the Mediterranean Sea     

G. Crispi  M. Pacciaroni 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009

The behavior of the Mediterranean ecosystem in response to realistic riverine inputs and dissolved matter exchange is investigated. The strategy is to evaluate the stability of the ecosystem subjected to various atmospheric inputs.  相似文献   

Resolving physically and biologically driven suspended particulate matter dynamics in a tidal basin with a distribution-based model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Joeran Maerz  Kai Wirtz 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009

Understanding suspended particulate matter (SPM) dynamics in coastal waters is crucial to assess changes in coastal sediment budgets and biogeochemical fluxes. SPM dynamics are subject to various physical and biological factors and processes such as, e.g. tidal currents and aggregation which can be enhanced by extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) that are produced by algae and bacteria. It is still unclear how the different factors and processes interact and together determine SPM dynamics. To unravel the interacting processes and factors, we propose a new distribution-based modeling approach. Based on the derivation of explicit equations for size distribution characteristics of SPM such as the average radius, we derived a model of reduced complexity characterized by low initialization and parameterization effort as well as low computational cost. The proposed 0D model includes the processes of aggregation and fragmentation due to shear, aggregation due to differential settling, deposition, resuspension and tidal exchange, and describes the evolution of the SPM concentration in the water column linked by the settling velocity to the change of the mass average radius of the aggregate distribution. A systematic parameter variation for critical bottom shear stress of erosion, the size of resuspended aggregates, the fractal dimension, the collision efficiency, and the aggregate strength has been performed and compared to observations in the back-barrier basin of Spiekeroog Island in the German Wadden Sea. This analysis confirms the hypothesis that in winter biological influences on SPM dynamics are smaller compared to summer. This is mainly reflected by a significant shift in the various parameters. We hence conclude that biological control mechanisms have a much more quantitative relevance for SPM dynamics than currently represented by state-of-the-art SPM transport models.  相似文献   

Impacts of maintenance channel dredging in a northern Adriatic coastal lagoon. I: Effects on sediment properties,contamination and toxicity     

Roberta Guerra  Andrea PasterisMassimo Ponti 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009

Conservation and management of coastal lagoons envisage direct human intervention. To prevent siltation and to preserve the hydrodynamics features of the lagoon system, the inner channels undergo regular maintenance dredging.  相似文献   

Identification of CO₂ disposal locations in an ocean general circulation model of the North Pacific     

XU Yongfu  AOKI Shigeaki  HARADA Koh 《海洋学报(英文版)》2009,28(1):15-24

A basinwide ocean general circulation model of the North Pacific is used to identify which location is more efficient for ocean CO2 sequestration in the North Pacific. Four injection depths at each one of fifteen locations are chosen. In terms of effectiveness index (EI) and escape factor (EF), it is clear that the effectiveness increases with increasing latitude at the end of the 50 a injection period. Sitebysite differences in the EI can be over 9% for the 1 000 m injection depth in the western North Pacific at the end of 50 a of continuous injection. The difference is much larger for the 500 m injection. The difference decreases with increasing injection depth. However, the sitebysite difference is small for the injection in the eastern North Pacific. The sequestration is more efficient for the injection in the east than in the west. For the 500 m injection depth, the difference in effectiveness between the west and the east is over 10% at the end of 50 a injection period. The largest concentration of sequestered CO2 increases with increasing injection depth. For the injection in both the western and central North Pacific, the largest exchange flux always appears to be at about 42°N, 150°E, whereas for the injection in the eastern area the large flux appears to be in the equatorial region (120°W).  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地塔巴庙地区上古生界源岩热演化特征     

戴世立  杨智  李弘  杨姣 《海洋地质译丛》2009,(1):15-20

鄂尔多斯盆地北部主力气源岩太原组、山西组煤系地层热成熟史的研究对本区天然气充注过程和有利目标区预测具有重要的参考价值。在对研究区烃源岩评价和一维、二维地质建模研究的基础上。利用BasinMod盆地模拟软件对单井以及研究区内二维剖面、平面进行了煤系烃源岩热演化史模拟研究。研究结果表明：（1）该区在中三叠世进入生烃门限,中侏罗世以后,烃源岩持续埋深,早白垩世末期至最大埋深（4000m左右）,绝大多数的天然气都在这一阶段生成,早白垩世末构造抬升以后只有少量天然气生成;（2）研究区上古生界太原组和山西组煤系源岩最大累积生烃强度可达到2200×10^8m^3／km^2,对现今天然气的分布具有较强的控制作用。  相似文献