Palaeoflood activity and climate change over the last 1400 years recorded by lake sediments in the north‐west European Alps     

B. Wilhelm  F. Arnaud  P. Sabatier  O. Magand  E. Chapron  T. Courp  K. Tachikawa  B. Fanget  E. Malet  C. Pignol  E. Bard  J. J. Delannoy 《第四纪科学杂志》2013,28(2):189-199

A high‐resolution sedimentological and geochemical study of a high‐altitude proglacial lake (Lake Blanc, Aiguilles Rouges, 2352 m a.s.l.) revealed 195 turbidites, 190 of which are related to flood events over the last 1400 years. We used the coarsest sediment fraction of each turbidite as a proxy for the intensity of each flood event. Because most flood events at this locality are triggered by localized summer convective precipitation events, the reconstructed sedimentary record reveals changes in the frequency and intensity of such events over the last millennium. Comparisons with other temperature, palaeohydrological and glacier reconstructions in the region suggest that the most intense events occurred during the warmest periods, i.e. during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (AD 800–1300) and the current period of global warming. On a multi‐decadal time scale, almost all the flood frequency peaks seem to correspond to warmer periods, whereas multi‐centennial variations in flood frequency appear to follow the regional precipitation pattern. Consequently, this new Alpine flood record provides further evidence of a link between climate warming and an increase in the frequency and intensity of flooding on a multi‐decadal time scale, whereas the centennial variability in flood frequencies is related to regional precipitation patterns. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Characteristics of canopy interception loss in Moso bamboo forests of Japan     

Yoshinori Shinohara  Kohei Kuramoto  Kyoichi Otsuki 《水文研究》2013,27(14):2041-2047

In recent years, Moso bamboo (Phyllostachys pubescens) forests have rapidly expanded in Japan by replacing surrounding coniferous and/or broadleaved forests. To evaluate the change in water yield from forested areas because of this replacement, it is necessary to examine evapotranspiration for Moso bamboo forests. However, canopy interception loss, one of the major components of evapotranspiration in forested areas, has been observed in only two Moso bamboo forests in Japan with relatively high stem density (~7000 stems/ha). There are, in fact, many Moso bamboo forests with much lower stem density. Thus, we made precipitation (Pr), throughfall (Tf) and stemflow (Sf) observations for 1 year in a Moso bamboo forest with stem density of 3611 stems/ha and quantified canopy interception loss (Ic). Pr and Ic for the experimental period were 1636 and 166 mm, respectively, and Ic/Pr was 10%. The value was approximately the same as values for the other two Moso bamboo forests and lower than values for coniferous and broadleaved forests. On the other hand, Tf/Pr and Sf/Pr for our forest (86% and 4%, respectively) were approximately 10% of Pr larger and smaller than values for the other two Moso bamboo forests. These results suggest that the difference in stem density greatly affects precipitation partitioning (i.e. Tf/Pr and Sf/Pr) but does not greatly change Ic/Pr. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Climate justice and global cities: Mapping the emerging discourses     

Harriet Bulkeley  JoAnn Carmin  Vanesa Castán Broto  Gareth A.S. Edwards  Sara Fuller 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):914-925

Ever since climate change came to be a matter of political concern, questions of justice have been at the forefront of academic and policy debates in the international arena. Curiously, as attention has shifted to other sites and scales of climate change politics matters of justice have tended to be neglected. In this paper, we examine how discourses of justice are emerging within urban responses to climate change. Drawing on a database of initiatives taking place in 100 global cities and qualitative case-study research in Philadelphia, Quito and Toronto, we examine how notions of distributive and procedural justice are articulated in climate change projects and plans in relation to both adaptation and mitigation. We find that there is limited explicit concern with justice at the urban level. However, where discourses of justice are evident there are important differences emerging between urban responses to adaptation and mitigation, and between those in the north and in the south. Adaptation responses tend to stress the distribution of ‘rights’ to protection, although those in the South also stress the importance of procedural justice. Mitigation responses also stress ‘rights’ to the benefits of responding to climate change, with limited concern for ‘responsibilities’ or for procedural justice. Intriguingly, while adaptation responses tend to stress the rights of individuals, we also find discourses of collective rights emerging in relation to mitigation.  相似文献   

Identifying effects of local and nonlocal factors of soil water storage using cyclical correlation analysis     

Asim Biswas  Bing Cheng Si 《水文研究》2012,26(24):3669-3677

There are various factors governing the spatial and temporal variability of soil water storage including soil properties, topography and vegetation. Some factors act locally, whereas others act nonlocally, which means that a factor measured at one location has effect on soil water storage at another location. The objective of this study was to examine the effects of local and nonlocal controls of soil water storage in a hummocky landscape using cyclical correlation analysis. Soil water storage, soil properties and terrain indices were measured along a 128‐point transect of 576 m long from the semiarid, hummocky, prairie pothole region of North America. There are large coefficients of determination (r²) between soil water storage and sand content (r² = 0.32–0.53), organic carbon content (r² = 0.22–0.56), depth to carbonate layer (r² = 0.13–0.63), wetness index (r² = 0.25–0.45) and other variables at the measurement scale at different times, indicating strong local effects from these variables. The correlation coefficients were also calculated by physically shifting the spatial series of soil water storage with respect to that of controlling factors. The shifting improves the correlation between the spatial series, and the length of shifting indicated the difference in the response of soil water to its controlling factors. For example, the value of r² increased more than eightfold (r² = 0.47–0.64) after shifting the spatial series of soil water storage by 54 m, almost equal to the average length of existing slope, compared with the very weak correlation (r² = 0.02–0.08) at the measurement scale. This indicated the nonlocal effect from the relative elevation. The identification of nonlocal effects from factors improves the prediction of soil water storage. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydrological response of a Brazilian semi‐arid catchment to different land use and climate change scenarios: a modelling study     

A. Montenegro  R. Ragab 《水文研究》2010,24(19):2705-2723

Brazilian semi‐arid regions are characterized by water scarcity, vulnerability to desertification, and climate variability. The investigation of hydrological processes in this region is of major interest not only for water planning strategies but also to address the possible impact of future climate and land‐use changes on water resources. A hydrological distributed catchment‐scale model (DiCaSM) has been applied to simulate hydrological processes in a small representative catchment of the Brazilian northeast semi‐arid region, and also to investigate the impact of climate and land‐use changes, as well as changes associated with biofuel/energy crops production. The catchment is part of the Brazilian network for semi‐arid hydrology, established by the Brazilian Federal Government. Estimating and modelling streamflow (STF) and recharge in semi‐arid areas is a challenging task, mainly because of limitation in in situ measurements, and also due to the local nature of some processes. Direct recharge measurements are very difficult in semi‐arid catchments and contain a high level of uncertainty. The latter is usually addressed by short‐ and long‐time‐scale calibration and validation at catchment scale, as well as by examining the model sensitivity to the physical parameters responsible for the recharge. The DiCaSM model was run from 2000 to 2008, and streamflow was successfully simulated, with a Nash–Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency coefficient of 0·73, and R² of 0·79. On the basis of a range of climate change scenarios for the region, the DiCaSM model forecasted a reduction by 35%, 68%, and 77%, in groundwater recharge (GWR), and by 34%, 65%, and 72%, in streamflow, for the time spans 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099, respectively, could take place for a dry future climate scenario. These reductions would produce severe impact on water availability in the region. Introducing castor beans to the catchment would increase the GWR and streamflow, mainly if the caatinga areas would be converted into castor beans production. Changing an area of 1000 ha from caatinga to castor beans would increase the GWR by 46% and streamflow by 3%. If the same area of pasture is converted into castor beans, there would be an increase in GWR and streamflow by 24% and 5%, respectively. Such results are expected to contribute towards environmental policies for north‐east Brazil (NEB), and to biofuel production perspectives in the region. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

SWAT‐simulated hydrological impact of land‐use change in the Zanjanrood basin,Northwest Iran     

Golaleh Ghaffari  Saskia Keesstra  Jamal Ghodousi  Hassan Ahmadi 《水文研究》2010,24(7):892-903

Understanding the impacts of land‐use changes on hydrology at the watershed scale can facilitate development of sustainable water resource strategies. This paper investigates the hydrological effects of land‐use change in Zanjanrood basin, Iran. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AVSWAT2000). Model calibration and uncertainty analysis were performed with sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI‐2). Simulation results from January 1998 to December 2002 were used for parameter calibration, and then the model was validated for the period of January 2003 to December 2004. The predicted monthly streamflow matched the observed values: during calibration the correlation coefficient was 0·86 and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient 0·79, compared with 0·80 and 0·79, respectively, during validation. The model was used to simulate the main components of the hydrological cycle, in order to study the effects of land‐use changes in 1967, 1994 and 2007. The study reveals that during 1967 a 34·5% decrease of grassland with concurrent increases of shrubland (13·9%), rain‐fed agriculture (12·1%), bare ground (5·5%) irrigated agriculture (2·2%), and urban area (0·7%) led to a 33% increase in the amount of surface runoff and a 22% decrease in the groundwater recharge. Furthermore, the area of sub‐basins that was influenced by high runoff (14–28 mm) increased. The results indicate that the hydrological response to overgrazing and the replacing of rangelands (grassland and shrubland) with rain‐fed agriculture and bare ground (badlands) is nonlinear and exhibits a threshold effect. The runoff rises dramatically when more than 60% of the rangeland is removed. For groundwater this threshold lies at an 80% decrease in rangeland. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Perceptions and responses to climate policy risks among California farmers     

Meredith T. Niles  Mark Lubell  Van R. Haden 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1752-1760

This paper considers how farmers perceive and respond to climate change policy risks, and suggests that understanding these risk responses is as important as understanding responses to biophysical climate change impacts. Based on a survey of 162 farmers in California, we test three hypotheses regarding climate policy risk: (1) that perceived climate change risks will have a direct impact on farmer's responses to climate policy risks, (2) that previous climate change experiences will influence farmer's climate change perceptions and climate policy risk responses, and (3) that past experiences with environmental policies will more strongly affect a farmer's climate change beliefs, risks, and climate policy risk responses. Using a structural equation model we find support for all three hypotheses and furthermore show that farmers’ negative past policy experiences do not make them less likely to respond to climate policy risks through participation in a government incentive program. We discuss how future research and climate policies can be structured to garner greater agricultural participation. This work highlights that understanding climate policy risk responses and other social, economic and policy perspectives is a vital component of understanding climate change beliefs, risks and behaviors and should be more thoroughly considered in future work.  相似文献   

Multivariate analysis of flood characteristics in a climate change context of the watershed of the Baskatong reservoir,Province of Québec,Canada     

M.‐A. Ben Aissia  F. Chebana  T. B. M. J. Ouarda  L. Roy  G. Desrochers  I. Chartier  É. Robichaud 《水文研究》2012,26(1):130-142

The analysis of the impact of climate change (CC) on flood peaks has been the subject of several studies. However, a flood is characterized not only by its peak, but also by other characteristics such as its volume and duration. Little effort has been directed towards the study of the impact of CC on these characteristics. The aim of the present study is to evaluate and compare flood characteristics in a CC context, in the watershed of the Baskatong reservoir (Province of Québec, Canada). Comparisons are based on observed flow data and simulated flow series obtained from hydrological models using meteorological data from a regional climate model for a reference period (1971–2000) and a future period (2041–2070). To this end, two hydrological models HSAMI and HYDROTEL are considered. Correlations, stationarity, change‐points, and the multivariate behaviour of flood series were studied. The results show that, at various levels, all flood characteristics could be affected by CC. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Effects of Drought on Winter Wheat Yield in North China During 2012-2100     

SONG Yanling  ZHAO Yanxia 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2012,26(4):516-528

Winter wheat is one of China's most important staple food crops, and its production is strongly influenced by weather, especially droughts. As a result, the impact of drought on the production of winter wheat is associated with the food security of China. Simulations of future climate for scenarios A2 and A1B provided by GFDL_CM2, MPI_ECHAM5, MRI_CGCM2, NCAR_CCSM3, and UKMO_HADCM3 during 2001- 2100 are used to project the influence of drought on winter wheat yields in North China. Winter wheat yields are simulated using the crop model WOFOST (WOrld FOod STudies). Future changes in temperature and precipitation are analyzed. Temperature is projected to increase by 3.9-5.5℃ ? for scenario A2 and by 2.9-5.1℃ ? for scenario A1B, with fairly large interannual variability. Mean precipitation during the growing season is projected to increase by 16.7 and 8.6 mm (10 yr)-1, with spring precipitation increasing by 9.3 and 4.8 mm (10 yr)-1 from 2012-2100 for scenarios A2 and A1B, respectively. For the next 10-30 years (2012- 2040), neither the growing season precipitation nor the spring precipitation over North China is projected to increase by either scenario. Assuming constant winter wheat varieties and agricultural practices, the influence of drought induced by short rain on winter wheat yields in North China is simulated using the WOFOST crop model. The drought index is projected to decrease by 9.7% according to scenario A2 and by 10.3% according to scenario A1B during 2012-2100. This indicates that the drought influence on winter wheat yields may be relieved over that period by projected increases in rain and temperature as well as changes in the growth stage of winter wheat. However, drought may be more severe in the near future, as indicated by the results for the next 10-30 years.  相似文献   

A 200-year precipitation index for the central English Lake District / Un indice de précipitation de 200 ans pour la Région des Lacs en Angleterre     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)

Abstract

Abstract The geographical context and hydroclimatology of the English Lake District means that the region is an important monitor of changes to nationally significant environmental assets. Using monthly rainfall series for sites in and around the central Lake District, a continuous ~200-year precipitation index was constructed for a representative station close to Grasmere. The bridged series shows a significant decline in summer rainfall since the 1960s, offset by increases in winter and spring that are strongly linked to North Atlantic forcing. Over longer time periods, the index exhibits several notable dry (1850s, 1880s, 1890s, 1930s, 1970s) and wet (1820s, 1870s, 1920s, 1940s, 1990s) decades. These patterns are strongly reflected by reservoir inflow series and by indicators of the biological status of the region’s freshwater lakes. It is argued that long-term climate indices will become increasingly important as managers seek to evaluate recent and project environmental changes within the context of long-term natural variability.  相似文献