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11.
Michael G. Loso Daniel F. Doak Robert S. Anderson 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2014,96(1):21-41
Contemporary variants of the lichenometric dating technique depend upon statistical correlations between surface age and maximum lichen sizes, rather than an understanding of lichen biology. To date three terminal moraines of an Alaskan glacier, we used a new lichenometric technique in which surfaces are dated by comparing lichen population distributions with the predictions of ecological demography models with explicit rules for the biological processes that govern lichen populations: colonization, growth, and survival. These rules were inferred from size–frequency distributions of lichens on calibration surfaces, but could be taken directly from biological studies. Working with two lichen taxa, we used multinomial‐based likelihood functions to compare model predictions with measured lichen populations, using only the thalli in the largest 25% of the size distribution. Joint likelihoods that combine the results of both species estimated moraine ages of ad 1938, 1917, and 1816. Ages predicted by Rhizocarpon alone were older than those of P. pubescens. Predicted ages are geologically plausible, and reveal glacier terminus retreat after a Little Ice Age maximum advance around ad 1816, with accelerated retreat starting in the early to mid twentieth century. Importantly, our technique permits calculation of prediction and model uncertainty. We attribute large confidence intervals for some dates to the use of the biologically variable Rhizocarpon subgenus, small sample sizes, and high inferred lichen mortality. We also suggest the need for improvement in demographic models. A primary advantage of our technique is that a process‐based approach to lichenometry will allow direct incorporation of ongoing advances in lichen biology. 相似文献
12.
BY GREGORY C. WILES DAVID J. BARCLAY NICOLÁS E. YOUNG 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2010,92(1):101-109
In Alaska, lichenometry continues to be an important technique for dating late Holocene moraines. Research completed during the 1970s through the early 1990s developed lichen dating curves for five regions in the Arctic and subarctic mountain ranges beyond altitudinal and latitudinal treelines. Although these dating curves are still in use across Alaska, little progress has been made in the past decade in updating or extending them or in developing new curves. Comparison of results from recent moraine-dating studies based on these five lichen dating curves with tree-ring based glacier histories from southern Alaska shows generally good agreement, albeit with greater scatter in the lichen-based ages. Cosmogenic surface-exposure dating of Holocene moraines has the potential to test some of the assumptions of the lichenometric technique and to facilitate the development of a new set of improved lichen dating curves for Alaska. 相似文献
13.
The occurrence of devastating floods in the British uplands during the first two decades of the twenty‐first century poses two key questions: (1) are recent events unprecedented in terms of their frequency and magnitude; and (2) is climate and/or land‐use change driving the apparent upturn in flooding? Conventional methods of analysing instrumental flow records cannot answer these questions because upland catchments are usually ungauged, and where records do exist they rarely provide more than 30–40 years of data. In this paper we analyse all lichen‐dated upland flood records in the United Kingdom (UK) to establish the longer‐term context and causes of recent severe flooding. Our new analysis of torrential sedimentary deposits shows that twenty‐first century floods are not unprecedented in terms of both their frequency (they were more frequent before 1960) and magnitude (the biggest events occurred during the seventeenth–nineteenth centuries). However, in some areas recent floods have either equalled or exceeded the largest historical events. The majority of recent floods have been triggered by torrential summer downpours related to a marked negative phase of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) between 2007 and 2012. It is of concern that historical data suggests there is far more capacity in the North Atlantic climate system to produce wetter and more prolonged flood‐rich periods than hitherto experienced in the twenty‐first century. Looking forwards, an increased likelihood of weather extremes due to climate change means that geomorphological based flood series extensions must be placed at the centre of flood risk assessment in the UK uplands and in similar areas worldwide. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
JOHN F. ORWIN KRISTA M. MCKINZEY MICHAEL A. STEPHENS ANDREW J. DUGMORE 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2008,90(2):151-164
Moraine ridges are commonly used to identify past glacier ice margins and so infer glacier mass balance changes in response to climatic variability. However, differences in the form of past ice margins and post-depositional modification of moraine surfaces can complicate these geomorphic records. As a result, simple relationships, such as distance from current ice margin, or linear alignments, may not necessarily indicate moraines deposited contemporaneously. These disturbances can also modify the size distribution of lichen populations, providing a distinctive signature for surfaces with similar histories and a means of identifying contemporaneous moraine surfaces. In this paper, statistical analysis of lichen size distributions is used to identify moraine surfaces with similar histories from complex suites of Little Ice Age moraine fragments in the proglacial areas of Skálafellsjökull (including Sultartungnajökull) and Heinabergsjökull, southeast Iceland. The analysis is based on a novel use of the goodness-of-fit statistic, Watson's U2 which provides a measure of 'closeness' between two sample distributions. Moraine fragments with similar histories are identified using cluster analysis of the U2 closeness values. The spatial pattern of the clustered moraines suggests three distinct phases of moraine deposition at Skálafellsjökull and Heinabergsjökull, four phases at Sultartungnajökull and a digitate planform margin at Heinabergsjökull. These spatial patterns are corroborated with tephrochronology. The success of the U2 statistical analysis in identifying surfaces with similar histories using lichen size distributions suggests that the technique may be useful in augmenting lichenometric surface dating as well as differentiating between other surfaces that support lichen populations, such as rock avalanche deposits. 相似文献
15.
In Iceland, there are numerous examples of glacier advances dated to the latter half of the last century. However, in marked contrast to the Alps and northern Europe, the record of historical-age moraines before ca. 1850 is rather sparse. This paper examines to what extent this pattern reflects the actual history of glacier fluctuations, and to what extent it could be a function of preservation and dating of the geomorphological record. Measurements of Rhizocarpon geographicum sp. lichen thalli on ice-marginal moraines and sandur form the basis for the late "Little Ice Age" glacial chronology in south Iceland. Recent studies have converged on the view of a maximum glacier extent in the late nineteenth century, and not during earlier and possibly colder parts of the "Little Ice Age". Here, results of independent dating of moraine ridges and a jökulhlaup deposit demonstrate that conventional lichenometric techniques tend to cluster dates of these landforms to the 1860s-1880s, underestimating tephrochronological dates on the same landforms by >100 yr in some cases. A mid-eighteenth century glacial maximum may be better represented in the landform record than hitherto thought, with implications for reconstruction of North Atlantic circulation patterns. 相似文献
16.
The Retreat of Tien Shan Glaciers (Kyrgyzstan) Since the Little Ice Age Estimated from Aerial Photographs, Lichenometric and Historical Data 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Olga Solomina Roger Barry Maria Bodnya 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2004,86(2):205-215
The retreat of 293 glaciers in the Tien Shan Mountains (Kyrgyz Republic) from their maximum extent during the Little Ice Age (LIA) is estimated using aerial photographs from 1980 to 1985 and maps at a scale of 1:25000, constructed during period 1956–1990. Two indices of changes are used: the linear distance from the glacier terminus to its Little Ice Age moraine and the difference in absolute elevation of the terminus and the moraine. Historical information about the front positions of glaciers in the 1880s to the 1930s was used as an indirect control of remote sensing data. The age of moraines in key regions was estimated by lichenometry. On average, Tien Shan glaciers have retreated by 989 ± 540 m since the LIA maximum. Their front elevations (dh) rose by 151 ± 105 m. These changes are similar to changes observed in the Alps and western Norway, Pamir‐Alay and Koryak plateau, but greater than in east Siberia over the same interval. Differences between four regions in Tien Shan (northern, western, inner, central) are generally small, though in the northern Tien Shan the glacier retreat and frontal rise are more prominent (1065 ± 479 m and 215 ± 140 m, respectively). 相似文献
17.
Recent work by McCarroll (1993, 1994) suggests that a new approach to lichenometry can be used to date diachronous surfaces. Size–frequency distributions of largest lichens obtained from the diachronous surfaces of avalanche boulder ramparts comprise two elements: an equilibrium population growing on boulders deposited throughout the Holocene, and overlapping populations growing on groups of boulders deposited by events during the last 300 years. In this study, almost 10000 lichens were measured on two groups of closely similar ramparts. The number of very large lichens is used to predict the form of the equilibrium distribution, which is then removed, leaving a corrected distribution which reflects the age-frequency of surface boulders deposited during the ‘Little Ice Age’. The results confirm that maximum avalanche activity occurred during the 19th century, but a minor peak at one site suggests that avalanche activity was enhanced during the mid-18th century. 相似文献
18.
This paper highlights the importance for dating accuracy of initial studies of delay before colonization for both trees and lichens and tree age below core height, particularly in recently deglaciated terrain where colonization and growth rates may vary widely due to differences in micro-environment. It demonstrates, for the first time, how dendrochronology and lichenometry can be used together in an assessment of each other's colonization and growth rates, and then cross-correlated to provide a supportive dating framework. The method described for estimating tree age below core height is also new. The results show that on the east side of the North Patagonian Icefield in the Arco and Colonia valleys, Nothofagus age below a core height of 112 cm can vary from 5 to 41 years and delay before colonization may range from a maximum of 22 years near water to a minimum of 93 years on the exposed flanks of the Arenales and Colonia Glaciers. Tree age plus colonization delay supplied a maximum growth rate of 4.7 mm/year for the lichen Placopsis perrugosa and lichen colonization is estimated to take from 2.5 to approximately 13 years. A minimum lichenometric date of 1883 was estimated for an ice-formed trimline at the junction of the Arenales and Colonia glaciers and a maximum dendrochronological date of 1881 for a water-formed trimline in the Arco valley. Tree and lichen ages around the valley suggest that a glacial outburst drained the 1881 high level lake releasing approximately 265 million cubic metres of water. Repeated flooding, with a minimum of 38 high lake levels, is suggested by horizontal sediment lines on the Arco valley walls and moraine flanks. Dating confirmed diminishing flood levels with a last minor flood in 1963. The wider significance of the work is that it should produce more accurate dating of recent glacier fluctuations around the North Patagonia Icefield, an area where dated reference surfaces are extremely scarce. 相似文献
19.
The chronology and the hydrometeorology of catastrophic floods on Dartmoor,South West England 
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下载免费PDF全文 Extreme floods are the most widespread and often the most fatal type of natural hazard experienced in Europe, particularly in upland and mountainous areas. These ‘flash flood’ type events are particularly dangerous because extreme rainfall totals in a short space of time can lead to very high flow velocities and little or no time for flood warning. Given the danger posed by extreme floods, there are concerns that catastrophic hydrometeorological events could become more frequent in a warming world. However, analysis of longer term flood frequency is often limited by the use of short instrumental flow records (last 30–40 years) that do not adequately cover alternating flood‐rich and flood‐poor periods over the last 2 to 3 centuries. In contrast, this research extends the upland flood series of South West England (Dartmoor) back to ca AD 1800 using lichenometry. Results show that the period 1820 to mid‐1940s was characterized by widespread flooding, with particularly large and frequent events in the mid‐to‐late 19th and early 20th centuries. Since ca 1850 to 1900, there has been a general decline in flood magnitude that was particularly marked after the 1930s/mid‐1940s. Local meteorological records show that: (1) historical flood‐rich periods on Dartmoor were associated with high annual, seasonal and daily rainfall totals in the last quarter of the 19th century and between 1910 and 1946, related to sub‐decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and receipt of cyclonic and southerly weather types over the southwest peninsula; and (2) the incidence of heavy daily rainfall declined notably after 1946, similar to sedimentary archives of flooding. The peak period of flooding on Dartmoor predates the beginning of gauged flow records, which has practical implications for understanding and managing flood risk on rivers that drain Dartmoor. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Michael A. O'Neal Nicholas T. Legg Brian Hanson Daniel J. Morgan Allison Rothgeb 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2013,95(3):241-248
This study presents a growth curve developed from direct and indirect growth rates of Rhizocarpon geographicum lichens from study sites on Mounts Baker, Rainier, Adams, and Hood in the northern Cascade Range of the western USA. Our observations of direct growth rates are based on 31 measurements of 11 lichens growing on different surfaces. This direct growth rate dataset is complemented by indirect growth rates based on measurements of the largest lichen observed on 20 different surfaces over 24–33‐yr periods. The direct and indirect datasets produce statistically indistinguishable mean radial growth rates of 0.48 and 0.50 mm yr?1, respectively. Statistical analysis of zero and first order fits of our growth rate data suggests that lichen growth is best characterized by the average of our mean growth rate (zero order) models at 0.49 mm yr?1. Our revised growth curve for the study area extends the applicable range for dating rock surface in the study area to the seventeenth century, approximately 175 years longer than previous calibrated curves. 相似文献