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41.
42.
震灾保险研究融会着自然科学与社会科学的紧密结合和相互渗透,基于这一认识,本文联系震灾保险的社会属性,分析并指出这一险种的非强制性质;保护应用的权益与责任;对社会不规范投保行为的制约;正确理解“与国际惯例接轨”、地震系统的协作模式、政府部门的政策导向等等带有根本性的问题,以启示人们把握研究的大方向,从而加快我国该项研究的实用化进程。 相似文献
43.
The dynamics and thermodynamics of large ash flows 总被引:6,自引:6,他引:0
Ash flow deposits, containing up to 1000 km3 of material, have been produced by some of the largest volcanic eruptions known. Ash flows propagate several tens of kilometres
from their source vents, produce extensive blankets of ash and are able to surmount topographic barriers hundreds of metres
high. We present and test a new model of the motion of such flows as they propagate over a near horizontal surface from a
collapsing fountain above a volcanic vent. The model predicts that for a given eruption rate, either a slow (10–100 m/s) and
deep (1000–3000 m) subcritical flow or a fast (100–200 m/s) and shallow (500–1000 m) supercritical flow may develop. Subcritical
ash flows propagate with a nearly constant volume flux, whereas supercritical flows entrain air and become progressively more
voluminous. The run-out distance of such ash flows is controlled largely by the mass of air mixed into the collapsing fountain,
the degree of fragmentation and the associated rate of loss of material into an underlying concentrated depositional system,
and the mass eruption rate. However, in supercritical flows, the continued entrainment of air exerts a further important control
on the flow evolution. Model predictions show that the run-out distance decreases with the mass of air entrained into the
flow. Also, the mass of ash which may ascend from the flow into a buoyant coignimbrite cloud increases as more air is entrained
into the flow. As a result, supercritical ash flows typically have shorter runout distances and more ash is elutriated into
the associated coignimbrite eruption columns. We also show that one-dimensional, channellized ash flows typically propagate
further than their radially spreading counterparts.
As a Plinian eruption proceeds, the erupted mass flux often increases, leading to column collapse and the formation of pumiceous
ash flows. Near the critical conditions for eruption column collapse, the flows are shed from high fountains which entrain
large quantities of air per unit mass. Our model suggests that this will lead to relatively short ash flows with much of the
erupted material being elutriated into the coignimbrite column. However, if the mass flux subseqently increases, then less
air per unit mass is entrained into the collapsing fountain, and progressively larger flows, which propagate further from
the vent, will develop.
Our model is consistent with observations of a number of pyroclastic flow deposits, including the 1912 eruption of Katmai
and the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo. The model suggests that many extensive flow sheets were emplaced from eruptions with mass
fluxes of 109–1010 kg/s over periods of 103–105 s, and that some indicators of flow "mobility" may need to be reinterpreted. Furthermore, in accordance with observations,
the model predicts that the coignimbrite eruption columns produced from such ash flows rose between 20 and 40 km.
Received: 25 August 1995 / Accepted: 3 April 1996 相似文献
44.
Erik Rüttener Juan José Egozcue Dieter Mayer-Rosa Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178
Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law. 相似文献
45.
Li Mingsen 《地理学报(英文版)》1996,(4)
ISoil-fo~gEnvironmentandMainSoilTrocsThesoLItheastQinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)PlateauwheretheHengduanMoUnains,eastempartoftheThmalayanandNyainqentanglhamoUnainsarelocatedextendsfrom25'to34"Nand92'to1O5'Ewithanareaof5OO,OOOkm',oraboutone-fiffooftheentireQinghai-XiZangPlateau.ItisatransitionalzoneofdeePdisseCtedmoUntainseXtendingsoutheastWardpenpherallowlandsandwichedin-betWeenSichuanBasinandcentralYunnanPlateau.Whletheterrainofthesmponinclinestosoutheast,thealtitudeofthevaIleysraises… 相似文献
46.
Seismic hazard of Egypt 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude,M
max, annual activity rate,, andb value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude 3 from the time interval 320–1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt.b-values of 1.2 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 ± 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 ± 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 ± 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 ± 0.3 for a time span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas. 相似文献
47.
新疆第四纪盐类矿产的形成和控制因素——兼论“高山深盆”成盐模式 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
根据袁见齐教授“高山深盆”成盐模式,探讨新疆天山对第四纪盐类矿床的形成和控制作用,阐述了天山地貌、气候、水文特征与盐类矿产的分布规律和特征。认为“高山深盆”并非一定是四周环山的深盆,可以是某一高山与其间深盆或两侧盆地的有机组合。高山的屏障作用造成了垂直的气候分带,在潮湿多雨的山区利于成盐组份的析出并迁移到干旱少雨的闭流深盆中,形成盐类矿床。 相似文献
48.
Ewa GłOwacka 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(2):121-132
Stress concentrations produced by rock deformation due to extraction in underground mines induce seismicity that can take the shape of violent and quite dangerous rockbursts.The hazard evaluation presented in this paper is based on a Bayesian probabilistic synthesis of information determined from mining situations during excavation, with previous and present data from microseismicity and seismoacustics.The method proposed in this study is an example of time-dependent on-line seismic hazard evaluation. All results presented were obtained retrospectiely for different underground coal mines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 01-452 Warszawa, ul. Ksiecia Janusza 64, Poland. 相似文献
49.
Environmental geology problems in the Tyrrhenian coastal area of Santa Marinella, province of Rome, central Italy 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
U. Chiocchini G. Gisotti A. Macioce F. Manna A. Bolasco C. Lucarini G. M. Patrizi 《Environmental Geology》1997,32(1):1-8
The Tyrrhenian resort of S. Marinella (central Italy) is subjected to significant anthropogenic pressures during the summer
vacation period, a common situation all along the Italian coast. Located 65 km NW of Rome on the southern slopes of the Tolfa
Mountains, S. Marinella is built on a gently sloping, E–W trending belt which is cut by 14 N–S oriented ephemeral streams
that discharge into the Tyrrhenian Sea. The low to medium permeability turbiditic sandstones which outcrop along this belt
belong to the Late Cretaceous Pietraforte unit. Three environmental problems are addressed in this study. The first problem
is related to the high water supply demand during the summer months which has forced local residents to dig a large number
of wells. Extensive pumping from these wells has caused salt-water intrusion into the Pietraforte, thus compromising the domestic
use of the groundwater. The second problem consists of the illegal dumping of urban solid waste, material that represents
a hazard during significant rain events as well as a possible cause of groundwater contamination. The final issue addressed
concerns the flooding potential of the 14 ephemeral streams that cross the inhabited area of S. Marinella, a risk which is
highlighted by the disastrous flood which occurred on 2 October 1981 and during the period of the Roman Emperor Settimio Severo
(205 A.D.). Some suggestions are proposed to mitigate and contain the effects of these problems.
Received: 7 November 1995 / Accepted: 5 December 1996 相似文献
50.
Abdallah I. Husein Malkawi Robert Y. Liang Jamal H. Nusairat Azm S. Al-Homoud 《Natural Hazards》1995,12(2):139-151
Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate
4 and the upper bound magnitudem
1 are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures. 相似文献