Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island     

L. B. Chubarov  Yu. I. Shokin  K. V. Simonov 《Natural Hazards》1992,5(3):293-318

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.  相似文献   

成都城市发展对热岛强度影响的主成份回归分析     

石凤云  唐佑民 《成都信息工程学院学报》1991,(Z1)

本文对成都市总人口、建成区面积等11个因子、作了主成份回归L-S估计和M-估计,讨论了成都城市发展对“热岛”强度的主要影响因子。结果表明,城区房屋建筑面积及总人口数是影响城市气候(气温)的主要因子,其次为城市人口总户数、建成面积等。 文中,对回归方程进行了拟合计算,回归效果比较满意(尤其是稳健回归)。  相似文献   

Comparison of structural and least-squares lines for estimating geologic relations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Garnett P. Williams  Brent M. Troutman 《Mathematical Geology》1990,22(8):1027-1049

Two different goals in fitting straight lines to data are to estimate a true linear relation (physical law) and to predict values of the dependent variable with the smallest possible error. Regarding the first goal, a Monte Carlo study indicated that the structural-analysis (SA) method of fitting straight lines to data is superior to the ordinary least-squares (OLS) method for estimating true straight-line relations. Number of data points, slope and intercept of the true relation, and variances of the errors associated with the independent (X) and dependent (Y) variables influence the degree of agreement. For example, differences between the two line-fitting methods decrease as error in X becomes small relative to error in Y. Regarding the second goal—predicting the dependent variable—OLS is better than SA. Again, the difference diminishes as X takes on less error relative to Y. With respect to estimation of slope and intercept and prediction of Y, agreement between Monte Carlo results and large-sample theory was very good for sample sizes of 100, and fair to good for sample sizes of 20. The procedures and error measures are illustrated with two geologic examples.  相似文献   

Analysis on the sources of mercury in soils in the Chengdu Basin, China     

Limin REN Bing QIN Wenchun TANG Zhendong MA Yikeng HU 《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):10-10

Mercury is a pollutant of concern due to its toxic and bioaccumulative properties. Studies on the distribution and hazard of mercury in the environment are mainly focused on its forms, toxicity and the environment standard, and progresses and results have been achieved. But these studies in the past were concentrated on the scales of laboratory or smaller districts merely, such as a small unit of mineral area, vegetable base, paddy field, lake, etc. Multi-target regional geochemical survey carried out by China Geological Survey from the 1990s to now is a fundamental and commonweal geological survey, large-scale and systematical inquisition and research were conducted in 19 provinces （or municipalities directly under the Central Government） in the eastern overlay region of China, and the purpose is to provide the basic geochemical data for national economic construction, adjustment of industrial and agricultural structures and sustainable social development. Geochemical studies aim at investigating soils in these regions and 52 elements have been tested, producing a great amount of data at the same time. Methods： based on the data from 3061 samples of surface soil and 832 samples of deep soil from the project of multi-purpose geochemical survey in the Chengdu Basin, Sichuan, China, this paper describes the correlation relationship between Hg and other 48 elements and their spatial distribution in surface and deep soils of these areas by applying the method of linear regression and factor analysis.  相似文献   

Water temperature behaviour in the River Loire since 1976 and 1881     

Florentina Moatar  Joël Gailhard 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2006,338(5):319-328

Analysis of monthly mean river temperatures, recorded on an hourly basis in the middle reaches of the Loire since 1976, allows reconstruction by multiple linear regression of the annual, spring and summer water temperatures from equivalent information on air temperatures and river discharge. Since 1881, the average annual and summer temperatures of the Loire have risen by approximately 0.8?°C, this increase accelerating since the late 1980s due to the rise in air temperature and also to lower discharge rates. In addition, the thermal regime in the Orleans to Blois reach is considerably affected by the inflow of groundwater from the Calcaires de Beauce aquifer, as shown by the summer energy balance. To cite this article: F. Moatar, J. Gailhard, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).  相似文献   

塔里木河源区冰川系统变化趋势预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王欣  谢自楚  刘时银  上官冬辉  陶建军  阳岳龙 《山地学报》2006,24(6):641-646

塔里木河源区是我国冰川分布最集中的地区之一,总面积达17 745.51 km2,占全国冰川总面积的30%;同时本区又属于我国升温幅度最大的地区之一。应用冰川系统变化的功能模型,对塔里木河源区冰川系统在本世纪对气候变化的趋势进行预测。结果表明:到2050年,如气温比1961~1990年高出1.9~2.3℃,本区冰川面积将减少4%~6%,冰川径流将增加22%~34%,零平衡线将上升62~94 m;如此升温率持续到本世纪末,则本区冰川面积将减少10%~16%,冰川径流将会回落,但仍比本世纪初多11%~13%,零平衡线将上升156~233 m。  相似文献   

Hydrogeology of thermal waters in Viterbo area, central Italy     

V. Piscopo  M. Barbieri  V. Monetti  G. Pagano  S. Pistoni  E. Ruggi  D. Stanzione 《Hydrogeology Journal》2006,14(8):1508-1521

A conceptual hydrogeological model of the Viterbo thermal area (central Italy) has been developed. Though numerous studies have been conducted on its geological, geochemical and geothermal features, there is no generalized picture defining the origin and yield of the hydrothermal system. These latter aspects have therefore become the objectives of this research, which is based on new hydrogeological and geochemical investigations. The geological setting results in the coexistence of overlapped interacting aquifers. The shallow volcanic aquifer, characterized by fresh waters, is fed from the area around the Cimini Mountains and is limited at its base by the semiconfining marly-calcareous-arenaceous complex and low-permeability clays. To the west of Viterbo, vertical upflows of thermal waters of the sulphate-chloride-alkaline-earth type with higher gas contents, are due to the locally uplifted carbonate reservoir, the reduced thickness of the semiconfining layer and the high local geothermal gradient. The hot waters (30–60°C) are the result of deep circulation within the carbonate rocks (0.5–1.8 km) and have the same recharge area as the volcanic aquifer. The upward flow in the Viterbo thermal area is at least 0.1 m³/s. This flow feeds springs and deep wells, also recharging the volcanic aquifer from below.  相似文献   

New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data     

G. Grünthal  R. Wahlström 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):159-176

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.  相似文献   

T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1     

Jo R?islien  Henning Omre 《Mathematical Geology》2006,38(7):821-849

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.  相似文献   

Projecting land-use change processes in the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca, Mexico     

Leticia Gmez-Mendoza  Ernesto Vega-Pea  M. Isabel Ramírez  Jos Luis Palacio-Prieto  Leopoldo Galicia 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2006,26(3-4):276-290

The objective of study was to explore short-term trends of processes that determine land-use change in Sierra Norte of Oaxaca (SNO), Mexico. Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) were estimated in a complex mosaic of vegetation in the SNO from 1980 to 2000, and projected them to 2020 through a Markovian model. SNO is highly vulnerable to climatic change according to a 2050 GCM scenario. However, 3% annual rate of tropical and temperate forest deforestation from agriculture and livestock encroachment, suggest the threat from land-use change is higher than that from climatic change for this study site. Productive land-use strategies are needed to reduce such high deforestation rates for tropical regions. Controlling deforestation would also reduce short-term effects of CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. Because of the necessity to evaluate anthropogenic ecosystem changes, it is imperative to separate short-term influences such as deforestation, from long-term influences such as climatic change.  相似文献