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151.
基于灰色模型的诸多优点,作者选用GM(1,1)模型分析和预报形变监测序列。然而直接应用GM(1,1)灰色模型分析和预报具有季节性的监测序列时往往精度不高。因此,作者提出运用基于季节指数的“去季节波动”法与GM(1,1)混合建模,对监测资料进行分析与预报。基于均方差和平均绝对误差两个精度准则,作者对此方法与周期函数拟合模型进行了比较。结果表明,此方法提高了具有季节性波动监测序列的预报精度,且建模方法简便、快捷。 相似文献
152.
开封大雾气候特征及预报 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用1961~2000年气象资料,分析了开封市大雾天气分布规律、天气特征,并总结出大雾产生的几种天气形势,找出预报指标。 相似文献
153.
154.
The Application of ARGO Data to the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Operational System of NCC 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
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1. Introduction It is well-known that the state of ocean plays very important role in the climate change. But there is a paucity of the ocean observation data. The data distri- bution in the space, time and different components is very inhomogeneous, even in some areas, there are no any observation data. Hence, it brings some diffcul- ties to the scientists to study many problems relevant to ocean. This situation has been being changed since ARGO (Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanogra-… 相似文献
155.
Jonathan D. Phillips 《The Professional geographer》2005,57(1):83-93
Spatial systems are typically characterized by multiple controlling factors and processes operating at different spatial and temporal scales (multiple scale causality [MSC]). An entropy decomposition‐based approach to MSC is presented here in two contexts. First, given maps or distributions of an observed phenomenon at two or more scales, the contribution at more local or global (relative to the primary scale of observation) controls to the observed entropy can be estimated. Second, a theoretical treatment of the entropy decomposition equations shows that as the range of scale is increased by broadening or narrowing resolutions or by incorporating more controls, the influence of larger or smaller‐scale influences not only changes, but may change qualitatively, e.g., in terms of having positive (entropy‐increasing) or negative (information‐increasing) effects. Such qualitative causal shifts have implications for efforts to use any single causal explanation across the molecular to planetary spatial and instantaneous to geological range of scales relevant to physical geography. The entropy decomposition method is illustrated with an application to soil landscapes in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas. 相似文献
156.
Recent research has highlighted the value of employing the idea of networks to describe the interrelatedness of today's globalizing economy. Networks facilitate flows of knowledge, ideas, managerial techniques and capital between firms both within and across political borders. This paper argues that the reconstruction of social connections through which information is created, given value and exchanged is fundamental to an understanding of not only contemporary but also historical patterns of economic globalization. We focus on the networks of the capitalist elite running 12 major multinational enterprises, active across British imperial territories, between c .1900 and c .1930. An examination is made of the economic and spatial interlocks between firms created by board members who were multiple directors. Social underpinnings of multiple directorates are examined by exploring the common, overlapping social spheres within which individuals engaged. A clearer grasp of the ways in which corporate activity operated in the early 1900s can provide a better understanding of the social context of global economic operations. 相似文献
157.
Xiaofeng Li Chunzeng Wang Jingwen Mao Renmin Hua Yarning Liu Qinghong Xu 《Resource Geology》2005,55(4):397-404
Abstract. The Yinshan polymetallic deposit is a hydrothermal vein-type deposit closely related to Late Jurassic felsic-inter-mediate volcanic-subvolcanic activity in Jiangxi Province, South China. Illite is a major alteration mineral observed in the deposit. Our study shows that the Kübler index of the illite has a close relation to ore-forming fluids of different stages of hydrothermal alteration and mineralization. The early Pb-Zn-Ag mineralization dated at 130–136 Ma is characterized by relatively low water/rock ratios and diffusive fluid movement within phyllite, whereas the later Cu-Au-S mineralization at 122 -125 Ma was accompanied by higher water/rock ratios and localized fluid flow through fractures and channels. Illite formed in the early Pb-Zn-Ag mineralization stage contains swelling layers while the illite formed in the later Cu-Au-S mineralization stage has no swelling layers but was associated with intensive chloritization. The last stage of mineralization (at 104 Ma) was minor and did not produce significant amounts of illite. 相似文献
158.
The 17 March 2005 Kuzulu landslide (Sivas, Turkey) and landslide-susceptibility map of its near vicinity 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Landslides are common natural hazards in the seismically active North Anatolian Fault Zone of Turkey. Although seismic activity, heavy rainfall, channel incisions, and anthropogenic effects are commonly the main triggers of landslides, on March 17, 2005, a catastrophic large landslide in Sivas, northeastern of Turkey, the Kuzulu landslide, was triggered by snowmelt without any other precursor. The initial failure of the Kuzulu landslide was rotational. Following the rotational failure, the earth material in the zone of accumulation exhibited an extremely rapid flow caused by steep gradient and high water content. The Agnus Creek valley, where Kuzulu village is located, was filled by the earth-flow material and a landslide dam was formed on the upper part of Agnus Creek. The distance from the toe of the rotational failure down to the toe of the earth flow measured more than 1800 m, with about 12.5 million m3 of displaced earth material. The velocity of the Kuzulu landslide was extremely fast, approximately 6 m/s. The main purposes of this study are to describe the mechanism and the factors conditioning the Kuzulu landslide, to present its environmental impacts, and to produce landslide-susceptibility maps of the Kuzulu landslide area and its near vicinity. For this purpose, a detailed landslide inventory map was prepared and geology, slope, aspect, elevation, topographic-wetness index and stream-power index were considered as conditioning factors. During the susceptibility analyses, the conditional probability approach was used and a landslide-susceptibility map was produced. The landslide-susceptibility map will help decision makers in site selection and the site-planning process. The map may also be accepted as a basis for landslide risk-management studies to be applied in the study area. 相似文献
159.
本文利用2001-2003年南极中山站175天全天空摄像机观测,对午后多重极光弧的出现率及其与Kp指数的关系进行了统计分析,结果表明午后多重极光弧出现率呈一单峰分布,最大发生率出现在1445UT(1645MLT),其位置在1500MLT极光热点(1300-1700MLT)近夜侧的部分。与地磁活动指数Kp的相关统计分析表明,Kp值为2-3之间时多重极光弧有较大的出现率,这说明中等地磁活动情形下午后多重极光弧有较高的出现率。事件分析表明多重极光弧的强度变化与地磁Pc5脉动具有较高的相关性,并且有类似的频谱特征,这说明午后多重极光弧可能与同时出现的Pc5地磁脉动有关。 相似文献
160.
Development of a soil moisture‐based distributed hydrologic model for determining hydrologically based critical source areas
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A simple grid cell‐based distributed hydrologic model was developed to provide spatial information on hydrologic components for determining hydrologically based critical source areas. The model represents the critical process (soil moisture variation) to run‐off generation accounting for both local and global water balance. In this way, it simulates both infiltration excess run‐off and saturation excess run‐off. The model was tested by multisite and multivariable evaluation on the 50‐km2 Little River Experimental Watershed I in Georgia, U.S. and 2 smaller nested subwatersheds. Water balance, hydrograph, and soil moisture were simulated and compared to observed data. For streamflow calibration, the daily Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.78 at the watershed outlet and 0.56 and 0.75 at the 2 nested subwatersheds. For the validation period, the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.79 at the watershed outlet and 0.85 and 0.83 at the 2 subwatersheds. The per cent bias was less than 15% for all sites. For soil moisture, the model also predicted the rising and declining trends at 4 of the 5 measurement sites. The spatial distribution of surface run‐off simulated by the model was mainly controlled by local characteristics (precipitation, soil properties, and land cover) on dry days and by global watershed characteristics (relative position within the watershed and hydrologic connectivity) on wet days when saturation excess run‐off was simulated. The spatial details of run‐off generation and travel time along flow paths provided by the model are helpful for watershed managers to further identify critical source areas of non‐point source pollution and develop best management practices. 相似文献