中国蓄滞洪区洪水管理与可持续发展途径          下载免费PDF全文

宋豫秦  张晓蕾 《水科学进展》2014,25(6):888-896

蓄滞洪区的行蓄洪启用频率和蓄水方式决定着洪水管理与可持续发展途径,影响流域经济社会的可持续发展.根据各大流域蓄滞洪区的设计启用频率,设置了未来35年内蓄滞洪区发展的3种情景:维持现状、部分水库化和部分湿地化,构建了涵盖防洪、社会经济和生态发展等因子的途径选择指标体系,运用数据包络分析法(DEA),识别了不同设计启用频率的蓄滞洪区洪水管理与可持续发展的最优途径.结果表明:① 不同设计启用频率的蓄滞洪区在建成35年内,部分湿地化情景是中国70%蓄滞洪区的最优发展途径.② 设计启用频率50年一遇是蓄滞洪区发展途径选择的边界值;当等于或低于50年一遇时,部分湿地化是其最优途径;当高于50年一遇时,维持其现状是最优途径.  相似文献   

EGM2008的高程拟合模型在广西区域的应用研究     

李运健 《北京测绘》2014,(3):113-116,140

利用广西2013年测量的部分二等水准测量成果,对EGM2008地球重力场模型1′×1′的模型进行检核,得到其在广西境内的高程异常差值为36.8cm。并选取了广西两个较有代表性区域的数据,使用多种G P S高程多项式拟合的方法以及基于EGM2008地球重力场模型的移去-恢复法进行实验研究,通过数据统计分析,最优拟合模型精度可达到5cm以内,对EGM2008地球重力场模型在广西的实际应用得到了一些非常有意义的结论。  相似文献   

多源遥感影像融合最佳波段选择及质量评价研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

许菡  燕琴  徐泮林  方荣新 《测绘科学》2007,32(3):72-74,87

本文选用了有蓝色波段和无蓝色波段两种遥感数据源,使用定量指标对各波段进行基本统计及分析,并计算各波段之间的联合熵、协方差、相关系数及最佳指数,确定四类遥感数据各自的最佳波段组合;并采用了几种融合方法将四种影像按照最佳波段组合融合,计算融合后影像与原始影像之间的相关系数,分析得到两类数据的最佳融合方法。  相似文献   

Exploring land use policy scenarios with the use of a cellular automata-based model: urban sprawl containment and sustainable development in Thessaloniki     

Apostolos Lagarias 《国际地球制图》2015,30(9):1033-1051

This study addresses the issue of urban sprawl through the application of a cellular automata (CA)-based model in the area of Thessaloniki, Greece. The model integrates a multiple regression model at the regional level with a CA model at the local level. New urban land is allocated in a disaggregated field of land units (cells) taking into account a wide range of data. Particular emphasis is placed on the way zoning regulations and land availability data are inserted into the model, so that alternative land use policy scenarios could be examined. Thessaloniki, a typical Mediterranean city, is used as a case study. The model is used to compare two scenarios of urban growth up to year 2030; the first one assuming a continuation of existing trends, whereas the second one assuming the enactment of various land use zoning regulations in order to contain urban sprawl.  相似文献   

城市地下管网普查物探方法分析与验证     

刘子嘉  薛晓轩 《测绘与空间地理信息》2015,(12)

地下管网是城市正常运转的基础设施,承载着城市各种物质流、能源流和信息流,保证了城市的有序运转和居民的正常生活。探测地下管线的主要设备是英国雷迪RD8000,但这种设备恰巧是测绘仪器检定的盲区。为保证探测精度,需对物探方法进行分析,对设备进行校验,对不同埋深、不同地电条件下金属管线探测的工作参数进行试验,对探测仪性能、方法、最佳收发距离进行综合评定,旨在最大限度地发挥探测仪的潜能,从而保证地下管网的探测精度。  相似文献   

全球气候变化中的人类活动视角:社会经济情景的演变     

姜彤  王艳君  苏布达  翟建青  陶辉  景丞  黄金龙  温珊珊  潘金玉 《南京气象学院学报》2020,12(1):68-80

社会经济情景的设定是全球气候变化研究的基础,也是气候变化影响评估的关键环节.本文回顾了社会经济情景的发展过程,阐述了共享社会经济路径的主要特点和最新发展趋势,介绍了区域社会经济情景的构建及在灾害风险领域中的应用,最后对共享社会经济路径的发展进行了展望.  相似文献   

重庆多历时极值降水的概率型优选及应用     

王颖  刘晓冉  程炳岩  孙佳 《气象科学》2020,40(4):560-568

基于重庆34个国家气象站1981—2016年5 min,24 h至3 d的过程最大雨量共18个年极值降水序列,利用线性矩法计算6种常用概率分布函数的模型参数,通过备选最优模型筛选法客观选取各站各历时极值降水的最优概率模型,并将优选结果应用于重庆不同历时百年重现期降水的计算。结果表明:模型优选方法得到的重庆各站不同历时极值降水的最优线型略有差异,广义极值分布占比最大,三参数Weibull分布次之,三参数对数正态分布第三,皮尔逊Ⅲ型和Gumbel分布相当,指数分布最差。最优线型计算的重庆不同历时百年重现期降水的空间分布大值区由短历时的点状分布向长历时的片状分布转变,渝东北的大值中心受地形影响不断向北移动。基于线性矩法的概率模型参数估计及客观的线型优选过程具有较强的可操作性和适应性,可应用于其他工程气象参数的推算中。  相似文献   

Statistical downscaling of summer temperature extremes in northern China     

范丽军  符淙斌  严中伟 《大气科学进展》2013,30(4):1085-1095

Two approaches of statistical downscaling were applied to indices of temperature extremes based on percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at Beijing station in summer during 1960-2008. One was to downscale daily maximum and minimum temperatures by using EOF analysis and stepwise linear regression at first, then to calculate the indices of extremes; the other was to directly downscale the percentile-based indices by using seasonal large-scale temperature and geo-potential height records. The cross-validation results showed that the latter approach has a better performance than the former. Then, the latter approach was applied to 48 meteorological stations in northern China. The cross-validation results for all 48 stations showed close correlation between the percentile-based indices and the seasonal large-scale variables. Finally, future scenarios of indices of temperature extremes in northern China were projected by applying the statistical downscaling to Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) scenario of the Fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). The results showed that the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperatures will increase by about 1.5℃, and the 10th of daily minimum temperatures will increase by about 2℃ during the period 2011-35 relative to 1980-99.  相似文献   

Role of renewable energy in climate mitigation: a synthesis of recent scenarios     

Volker Krey 《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):1131-1158

The role of renewable energy in climate change mitigation is explored through a review of 162 recent medium- to long-term scenarios from 15 large-scale, energy-economic and integrated assessment models. The current state of knowledge from this community is assessed and its implications drawn for the strategic context in which policymakers and other decision-makers might consider renewable energy. The scenario set is distinguished from previous ones in that it contains more detailed information on renewable deployment levels. All the scenarios in this study were published during or after 2006. Within the context of a large-scale assessment, the analysis is guided primarily by four questions. What sorts of future levels of renewable energy deployment are consistent with different CO₂ concentration goals? Which classes of renewable energy will be the most prominent energy producers and how quickly might they expand production? Where might an expansion in renewable energy occur? What is the linkage between the costs of mitigation and an expansion of renewable energy?  相似文献   

Top-down and bottom-up modelling to support low-carbon scenarios: climate policy implications     

Patricia Fortes  Sofia Simões  Júlia Seixas  Denise Van Regemorter  Francisco Ferreira 《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):285-304

Bottom-up and top-down models are used to support climate policies, to identify the options required to meet GHG abatement targets and to evaluate their economic impact. Some studies have shown that the GHG mitigation options provided by economic top-down and technological bottom-up models tend to vary. One reason for this is that these models tend to use different baseline scenarios. The bottom-up TIMES_PT and the top-down computable general equilibrium GEM-E3_PT models are examined using a common baseline scenario to calibrate them, and the extend of their different mitigation options and its relevant to domestic policy making are assessed. Three low-carbon scenarios for Portugal until 2050 are generated, each with different GHG reduction targets. Both models suggest close mitigation options and locate the largest mitigation potential to energy supply. However, the models suggest different mitigation options for the end-use sectors: GEM-E3_PT focuses more on energy efficiency, while TIMES_PT relies on decrease carbon intensity due to a shift to electricity. Although a common baseline scenario cannot be ignored, the models’ inherent characteristics are the main factor for the different outcomes, thereby highlighting different mitigation options.

Policy relevance

The relevance of modelling tools used to support the design of domestic climate policies is assessed by evaluating the mitigation options suggested by a bottom-up and a top-down model. The different outcomes of each model are significant for climate policy design since each suggest different mitigation options like end-use energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon technologies. Policy makers should carefully select the modelling tool used to support their policies. The specific modelling structures of each model make them more appropriate to address certain policy questions than others. Using both modelling approaches for policy support can therefore bring added value and result in more robust climate policy design. Although the results are specific for Portugal, the insights provided by the analysis of both models can be extended to, and used in the climate policy decisions of, other countries.  相似文献