Estimation of tail dependence coefficient in rainfall accumulation fields     

Amir Aghakouchak  Grzegorz Ciach  Emad Habib 《Advances in water resources》2010

Extreme rainfall events are of particular importance due to their severe impacts on the economy, the environment and the society. Characterization and quantification of extremes and their spatial dependence structure may lead to a better understanding of extreme events. An important concept in statistical modeling is the tail dependence coefficient (TDC) that describes the degree of association between concurrent rainfall extremes at different locations. Accurate knowledge of the spatial characteristics of the TDC can help improve on the existing models of the occurrence probability of extreme storms. In this study, efficient estimation of the TDC in rainfall is investigated using a dense network of rain gauges located in south Louisiana, USA. The inter-gauge distances in this network range from about 1 km to 9 km. Four different nonparametric TDC estimators are implemented on samples of the rain gauge data and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Three averaging time-scales are considered: 1 h, 2 h and 3 h. The results indicate that a significant tail dependency may exist that cannot be ignored for realistic modeling of multivariate rainfall fields. Presence of a strong dependence among extremes contradicts with the assumption of joint normality, commonly used in hydrologic applications.  相似文献   

Health, sexuality and place: the different geographies of HIV-positive gay men in Auckland, New Zealand     

Myers J 《New Zealand geographer》2010,66(3):218-227

This paper employs interview narratives alongside participant-led photography and caption writing to examine the different daily geographies of 15 HIV-positive gay men in Auckland, New Zealand. Difference for these men is rooted in both their HIV status and their sexuality, and this difference has implications for their engagement with the world at a range of spatial and temporal scales. Giving voice to such experiences begins to answer calls for geographers to consider more deeply the connections between health, sexuality and place.  相似文献   

Seasonal Dependence of the North Pacific and North Atlantic SST Predictability and Forecast Skill     

Rong Xinyao  Liu Zhengyu  Liu Yun  Duan Wansuo 《地球科学进展》2017,32(4):382-395

In this paper, the decadal predictability and forecast skill of the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean were investigated by conducting three sets of perfect model forecast experiments using a global coupled general circulation model. The results show that the annual mean SSTA in the North Pacific is less predictable on decadal time scale, with the forecast skill notably weaker than that of the North Atlantic. By analyzing the predictability and forecast skill of seasonal mean SSTA, it is found that the decadal predictability and forecast skill of the winter mean (JFM) SSTA in the central and western North Pacific are significantly higher than those of other seasons, and the magnitude is comparable with that of the North Atlantic. The predictability and forecast skill of the North Atlantic SSTA also show seasonal variations. Further analysis indicates that the seasonal dependence of the SSTA decadal predictability and forecast skill in the North Pacific is due to the winter-to-winter reemergence mechanism of SSTA in the North Pacific, which results from the seasonal variation of the mixed layer depth of the North Pacific Ocean. While the seasonal dependence of the North Atlantic SSTA predictability and forecast skill might be related to seasonal variations of other processes, such as the Atlantic Decadal Oscillation. The results of this paper suggest that for decadal climate prediction, if the forecast skill of the seasonal mean is taken into account, we might obtain higher than annual mean forecast skill for some seasons.  相似文献   

Capturing channelized reservoir connectivity uncertainty with amalgamation curves     

《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2017

During reservoir characterization all the geological uncertainties affecting the quantity and distribution of hydrocarbons should be captured to assess the risks affecting final recovery.In a typical modeling workflow the geological uncertainties are accounted for through the construction of a sufficiently large set of 3-D static models. Out of this set, a few representative models are selected and dynamically simulated so as to correlate the geological characteristics of the reservoir with its dynamic performance and to propagate the uncertainty onto the final recovery factors, yet maintaining the computational run time acceptable. In channelized depositional environments, which are strongly heterogeneous, the selection approach must also account for channel connectivity, which plays a key role in the possibility of efficiently draining the reservoir for a reasonable number of wells.This study can be seen as a step forward in the assessment of the risks associated to the development of channelized reservoirs under the assumption that a way to express the concept of channel connectivity is channel amalgamation. Channel amalgamation is here defined through amalgamation curves which are numerically described using a set of indexes whose combination provide spatial information of channel intersections. These indexes were calculated for a full set of 3-D geological models and used to steer the selection of a representative model sub-set for subsequent fluid flow simulations.The validity of the index-based selection was verified on different sets of synthetic reservoir models through the evaluation of the representativeness of the model sub-set in reproducing the uncertainty of the original dataset. Eventually, the existence of a strong correlation between channel amalgamation and production performance was proved. From a practical perspective, the possibility to include channel amalgamation in the assessment of the geological models can considerably improve the representativeness of the selected models for uncertainty propagation thus reducing significantly the number of geological models to be considered.  相似文献   

考虑时间效应的滑坡风险评估和管理   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

李典庆  吴帅兵 《岩土力学》2006,27(12):2239-2245

提出了考虑时间效应的滑坡风险评估和管理方法。以香港地区近20年的16 000个切破的观测资料为基础,从统计学的角度提出了边坡的时变可靠性分析方法。推导了新建边坡在未来服役时间内的年失效概率的计算公式,并对现役边坡在未来服役时间内的年失效概率进行了预测。确定了基于年死亡人数的滑坡风险接受准则,并分析了基于滑坡时变风险的边坡加固时间。结果表明,考虑时间效应的滑坡风险评估和管理方法能够更加真实地反映滑坡随时间变化的特性。新建边坡的年失效概率随边坡服役时间逐渐增大,尤其是当边坡服役超过10年时,每年发生滑坡的概率急剧增大。现役边坡的年失效概率基本与继续服役时间呈线形关系。此外,香港斜坡维修指南规定的边坡加固时间能够有效地将滑坡风险降低到ALARP区或可接受的风险区。  相似文献   

BOOK REVIEWS     

《The Professional geographer》1984,36(4):498-530

Book reviewed is the article: Small-State Security in the Balkans . Aurel Braun. South American Development: A Geographical Introduction . Rosemary D. F. Bromley and Ray Bromley. Interregional Migration, National Policy and Social Justice . Gordon L. Clark. Marketing Architectural and Engineering Services . Weld Coxe. A Geography of the Third World . J. P. Dickenson, C. G. Clarke, W. T. S. Gould, R. M. Prothero, D. J. Siddle, C. T. Smith, E. M. Thomas-Hope, and A. G. Hodgkiss. Wildlife and Man in Texas: Environmental Change and Conservation . Robin W. Doughty. At the Sea's Edge . William T. Fox. Englewood Cliffs Geography and Ecology . I. P. Gerasimov. Urbanization in Contemporary Latin America. Critical Approaches to the Analysis of Urban Issues . Alan Gilbert in association with Jorge E. Hardoy and Ronaldo Ramírez, eds. The Coming of the Transactional City . Jean Gottmann. College Park Visions of City and Country: Prints and Photographs of Nineteenth-Century France . Bonnie L. Grad and Timothy A. Riggs. Worcester Soviet Geography Today: Physical Geography . N. A. Gvozdetskiy, ed. Adaptive Responses of Native Amazonians . Raymond B. Hames and William T. Vickers, eds. Urban and Regional Industrial Research: The Changing UK Data Base . Michael Healey, ed. Cuando se Acaban los Montes . Stanley Heckadon Moreno. A Panama Forest and Shore: Natural History and Amerindian Culture in Bocas del Toro . Burton L. Gordon. Pacific Grove Mozambique: From Colonialism to Revolution, 1900–1982 . Allen Isaacman and Barbara Isaacman. Soviet Natural Resources in the World Economy . Robert G. Jensen, Theodore Shabad, and Arthur W. Wright, eds. The Changing Geography of the United Kingdom . R. J. Johnston and J. C. Doornkamp, eds. Pluralism and Political Geography—People, Territory and State . Nurit Kliot and Stanley Waterman, eds. Landmarks Preservation and the Property Tax . David Listokin. Irrigation Horticulture in Highland Guatemala: The Tablón System of Panajachel . Kent Mathewson. Her Space, Her Place: A Geography of Women . Mary Ellen Mazey and David R. Lee. Man, A Geomorphological Agent . Dov Nir. Dordrecht The Book of America: Inside the 50 States Today . Neal R. Peirce and Jerry Hagstrom. Rivers . Geoffrey E. Petts. Proceedings, United States/Australia Workshop on Design and Implementation of Computer-Based Geographic Information Systems . Donna Peuquet and John O'Callaghan, eds. Outdoor Recreational and Resource Management . John Pigram. Remaking the City: Social Science Perspectives on Urban Design . John S. Pipkin, Mark La Gory and Judith R. Blau, eds. The Crust of Our Earth: An Armchair Traveler's Guide to the New Geology . Chet Raymo. Englewood Cliffs Concepts and Themes in the Regional Geography of Canada J. Lewis Robinson. Vancouver Secondary Cities in Developing Countries: Policies for Diffusing Urbanization . Dennis A. Rondinelli. Beverly Hills Legal Foundations of Environmental Planning , Vol 1. J. G. Rose. Can We Delay a Greenhouse Warming? Stephen Seidel and Dale Keyes. Mobilizing Human Resources in the Arab World . R. Paul Shaw. Prairie Mosaic: An Ethnic Atlas of Rural North Dakota . William C. Sherman. The Future of Conflict in the 1980s . William J. Taylor, Jr. and Steven A. Maaranen, eds. The Visual Display of Quantitative Information . Edward R. Tufte. U.S. 40 Today: Thirty Years of landscape Change in America . Thomas R. Vale and Geraldine R. Vale. Madison Silent Violence: Food, Famine and Peasantry in Northern Nigeria . Michael Watts. Readings in Historic Preservation: Why? What? How? Norman Williams Jr., Edmund Kellogg and Frank Gilbert, eds.  相似文献   

THE INVALIDITY OF MODIFIABLE AREAL UNIT RANDOMIZATION*     

Robert C. Larson 《The Professional geographer》1986,38(4):369-374

  相似文献   

辽东寒武纪笔石研究     

王敏成 《国土资源》1991,(2)

近年作者(1988—1990)在辽阳兰家寒武纪崮山组发现了笔石生物群,新建Dendrograptusliaoyiangensis sp.nov..D.liaoyiangensis latus subsp.nov.,Callograptus lanjiaensis sp.nov.。其特征为笔石个体小,枝短粗,具附着盘,胞管简单,固着底栖,分布局限,具有地方色彩,是目前已发现的最古老的笔石生物群。根据前人研究结果(穆恩之、林尧坤)和作者的研究认为,寒武系风山组Dictyonema wu-tingshanense是原始漂浮笔石,在太子河流域出现层位最低;凤山组燕州段笔石属底栖和漂浮的混合生态笔石群。同时作者在辽东半岛南部寒武系凤山组湾湾沟段和下楸树沟段发现笔石生物群,新建Dictyonema jin-zhouense sp.nov.Callograptus viminalis sp.nov.C.lashushanensis sp.nov.。作者的研究表明,太子河流域寒武系崮山组的笔石是最古老的笔石,因而太子河流域很可能是太平洋型和大西洋型笔石动物群的发源地。  相似文献   

THE DEPENDENCE OF WIND STRESS ON SEA STATE     

尹宝树  王涛 《中国海洋湖沼学报》1996,14(3):234-242

Based on up to date literature, this paper details the evolution of wave dependence of wind stress.Some typical models of the dependence of wind stress on waves are described in detail. Although there isno universally accepted theory and model, recent studies indicate that the wind strees strongly dependson the development state of sea waves, i. e., young seas are rougher than mature seas, in other words, thewind stress decreases with increasing wave age.  相似文献   

ON “BIOREGIONALISM”AND “WATERSHED CONSCIOUSNESS”*     

James J. Parsons 《The Professional geographer》1985,37(1):1-6

A diffused but philosophically sophisticated social movement, emphasizing the importance of the sense of place and a locally responsible stewardship of Nature, has been emerging in recent years in various parts of North America. Whether “bioregionalism”is a new way of thinking about our place on Earth and our relationship to it, as some would believe, or simply the ecologic perspective familiar to geographers and environmentalists, romanticized and dressed in a new vocabulary, it deserves our attention for its adherents are kindred souls.  相似文献