Predicting and forecasting flow discharge at sites receiving significant lateral inflow     

Gokmen Tayfur  Tommaso Moramarco  Vijay P. Singh 《水文研究》2007,21(14):1848-1859

Two models, one linear and one non‐linear, were employed for the prediction of flow discharge hydrographs at sites receiving significant lateral inflow. The linear model is based on a rating curve and permits a quick estimation of flow at a downstream site. The non‐linear model is based on a multilayer feed‐forward back propagation (FFBP) artificial neural network (ANN) and uses flow‐stage data measured at the upstream and downstream stations. ANN predicted the real‐time storm hydrographs satisfactorily and better than did the linear model. The results of sensitivity analysis indicated that when the lateral inflow contribution to the channel reach was insignificant, ANN, using only the flow‐stage data at the upstream station, satisfactorily predicted the hydrograph at the downstream station. The prediction error of ANN increases exponentially with the difference between the peak discharge used in training and that used in testing. ANN was also employed for flood forecasting and was compared with the modified Muskingum model (MMM). For a 4‐h lead time, MMM forecasts the floods reliably but could not be applied to reaches for lead times greater than the wave travel time. Although ANN and MMM had comparable performances for an 8‐h lead time, ANN is capable of forecasting floods with lead times longer than the wave travel time. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

New estimates of annual sea level maxima in the Bristol Channel     

D.L. Blackman 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1985,20(2):229-232

Observed sea level maxima in the form of annual extremes have been analysed for 4 ports in the Bristol Channel. The data analysed has been extended to include levels recorded in December 1981, when previous estimates of maximum return levels were exceeded.  相似文献   

Storm‐coverage effect on dynamic flood‐frequency analysis: empirical data analysis     

Jangwon Moon  Joong‐Hoon Kim  Chulsang Yoo 《水文研究》2004,18(1):159-178

In this study, a dynamic flood‐frequency analysis model considering the storm coverage effect is proposed and applied to six sub‐basins in the Pyungchang River basin, Korea. The model proposed is composed of the rectangular pulse Poisson process model for rainfall, the Soil Conservation Service curve number method for infiltration and the geomorphoclimatic instantaneous unit hydrograph for runoff estimation. Also, the model developed by Marco and Valdes is adopted for quantifying the storm‐coverage characteristics. By comparing the results from the same model with and without the storm‐coverage effect consideration, we could quantify the storm‐coverage effect on the flood‐frequency analysis. As a result of that, we found the storm‐coverage effect was so significant that overestimation of the design flood was unavoidable without its consideration. This also becomes more serious for larger basins where the probability of complete storm coverage is quite low. However, for smaller basins, the limited number of rain gauges is found to hamper the proper quantification of the storm‐coverage characteristics. Provided with a relationship curve between the basin size and the storm coverage (as in this study), this problem could be overcome with an acceptable accuracy level. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

RESEARCH ON SYSTEM OF FLOOD DISASTER CONTROL AND REDUCTION SUPPORTED BY GIS IN MEDIUM AND SMALL BASINS   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

XUYon－peng  DUJin－kang 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2002,12(1):30-34

Southeast China coastal areas belong to subtropical monsoon climatic zone,thus easily affected by floods resulted from typhoons and rainstorm.Since the areas of river basins are small,rivers flood regulation capacities are low,and therefore flood hazard is grave.In the paper,taking the Yongjiang basin in southeast China as an example,the approaches and methods of geographic information system(GIS) applied to flood disaster control and reduction research on small basin are explred.On GIS help the rainfall-runoff calculation model and the river dchannel flood routing model are developed.And the evaluating flood submerged are and the damage assessment models are built supported by digit elevation models.Lastly the decision support system on GIS supported for flood control in research basin has been set up.This greatly improves flood-proofing decision-making capacities in river basin,and provides valuable information and a mode for flood prevention and reduction in the medium and small basin .Meanwhile,the research indicates that technologies of GIS provide a powerful tool for flood disaster control.  相似文献   

INFLUENCE OF SEA－AIR INTERACTION ON THEDISCHARGE OF FLOOD SEASON IN THEUPPER REACHES OF THE CHANGJIANG RIVER     

章新平  范钟秀  周恩济 《中国地理科学(英文版)》1994,4(1):31-42

ＩＮＦＬＵＥＮＣＥＯＦＳＥＡ－ＡＩＲＩＮＴＥＲＡＣＴＩＯＮＯＮＴＨＥＤＩＳＣＨＡＲＧＥＯＦＦＬＯＯＤＳＥＡＳＯＮＩＮＴＨＥＵＰＰＥＲＲＥＡＣＨＥＳＯＦＴＨＥＣＨＡＮＧＪＩＡＮＧＲＩＶＥＲＺｈａｎｇＸｉｎｐｉｎｇ（章新平）（ＬａｎｚｈｏｕＩｎｓｔｉｔｕ...  相似文献   

Recharge of aquifers by flood events in an arid region     

Isabella Shentsis  Eliyahu Rosenthal 《水文研究》2003,17(4):695-712

The process of aquifer recharge by flood events in an arid region was investigated as applied to the Hazeva Formation (the Karkom graben, the Wadi Paran watershed, Israel). The hydrological model was established as a complex system, with due regard for groundwater and transmission losses of surface runoff. It was based on a previously outlined hydrogeological model of the Karkom graben and a model of transmission losses in arid watercourses under conditions of data deficiency. Proceeding from calculation of groundwater balances, the contribution of surface runoff as a decisive balance component was confirmed. The main characteristics of aquifer regimes, such as changes in storage volume and groundwater level, as well as lateral flow, were all found to be dependent upon the net extraction rate, i.e. pumpage discounting replenishment by flood events. Analysis and physical interpretation of model parameters enabled assessment of the influence of groundwater extraction on aquifer recharge. This became apparent as increasing absorption capacity and recharge availability of the aquifer as a result of the groundwater abstraction. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Application of kinematic wave theory for predicting flash flood hazards on coupled alluvial fan–piedmont plain landforms     

Biswajit Mukhopadhyay  Joe Cornelius  Warren Zehner 《水文研究》2003,17(4):839-868

A rainstorm that caused a severe flash flood on the piedmont plain at the toe positions of two alluvial fans located to the west of the Organ Mountains in Dona Ana County, New Mexico, USA, is analysed. The space–time distributions of rainfall are evaluated from the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) and overland flow is modelled as kinematic wave. The spatial distribution of rainfall shows a topographic control. The greatest rainfall depth, duration, and intensity occurred at the higher elevation mountain slopes and decreased with decreasing elevation from the alluvial fans to the piedmont plain. The alluvial fan–piedmont plain system is modelled by coupling divergent and rectangular overland flow planes. Explicit finite difference approximations, hybridized with the analytical method of characteristics, are made to the kinematic wave equations to account for the spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall and variable boundary conditions. Simulation results indicate that sheet‐flow floodwater elevations rise (1) in a nonlinear fashion from the apex to toe positions of the alluvial fans, and (2) near linearly from the toe positions of the alluvial fans onto the piedmont plains with the formation of kinematic shocks near the middle to the upstream end of the plane at times between the initiation of the rainstorm and the time of concentration of the plane. Thus, the maximum flooding occurs at the middle or upstream sections of the piedmont plains regardless of the pattern of space–time variability of rainfall. These results are in agreement with observed geomorphologic features suggesting that piedmont plains are naturally flood‐prone areas. This case study demonstrates that flood hazards on piedmont plains can exceed those on alluvial fans. The models presented in this study suggest that the flood hazard zones on coupled alluvial fan–piedmont plain landforms should be delineated transverse to the flow directions, as opposed to the flood hazard zones with boundaries in the longitudinal direction of the axis of an alluvial fan. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Flood hydrograph estimation from arid catchment morphology     

M. Nouh 《水文研究》1990,4(2):103-120

Data on performance of a geomorphologic rainfall-runoff model in simulating observed flash flood hydrographs in 32 arid catchments have been analysed. The catchments, which are located in the southwest region of Saudi Arabia, vary in their size, slope of land, and characteristics of soils, and are in zones of different rainstorm characteristics. The sensitivity of the model accuracy with various catchment and rainfall characteristics has been investigated. Size, followed by rate of infiltration and slope of land, are the most effective catchment characteristics affecting the accuracy. In addition, the accuracy varies with spatial and temporal rainfall variation, total rainfall depth, and length of the dry period between two successive rainstorms over catchment. It is sensitive to temporal rainfall variation more than spatial rainfall variation, and to the dry period more than total rainfall depth. Generally, the model did not display an accuracy approaching that of the observations, especially in simulating peak flowrates in large size infiltrating catchments having high temporal rainstorm variation. Guidelines on the best use of the model in arid catchments were proposed.  相似文献   

Hydraulic model calibration for extreme floods in bedrock‐confined channels: case study from northern Thailand     

R. L. Kidson  K. S. Richards  P. A. Carling 《水文研究》2006,20(2):329-344

Palaeoflood reconstructions based on stage evidence are typically conducted in data‐poor field settings. Few opportunities exist to calibrate the hydraulic models used to estimate discharge from this evidence. Consequently, an important hydraulic model parameter, the roughness coefficient (e.g. Manning's n), is typically estimated by a range of approximate techniques, such as ‘visual estimation’ and semi‐empirical equations. These techniques contribute uncertainty to resulting discharge estimates, especially where the study reach exhibits sensitivity in the discharge–Manning's n relation. We study this uncertainty within a hydraulic model for a large flood of known discharge on the Mae Chaem River, northern Thailand. Comparison of the ‘calibrated’ Manning's n with that obtained from semi‐empirical equations indicates that these underestimate roughness. Substantial roughness elements in the extra‐channel zone, inundated during large events, contribute significant additional sources of flow resistance that are captured neither by the semi‐empirical equations, nor by existing models predicting stage–roughness variations. This bedrock channel exhibits a complex discharge–Manning's n relation, and reliable estimates of the former are dependent upon realistic assignment of the latter. Our study demonstrates that a large recent flood can provide a valuable opportunity to constrain this parameter, and this is illustrated when we model a palaeoflood event in the same reach, and subsequently examine the magnitude–return period consequences of discharge uncertainty within a flood frequency analysis, which contributes its own source of uncertainty. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Chronology of latest Pleistocene lake‐level fluctuations in the pluvial Lake Chewaucan basin,Oregon, USA     

Joseph M. Licciardi 《第四纪科学杂志》2001,16(6):545-553

New accelerator mass spectrometer radiocarbon ages from gastropods in shore deposits within the pluvial Lake Chewaucan basin, combined with stratigraphical and geomorphological evidence, identify an abrupt rise and fall of lake level at ca. 12 ¹⁴C ka. The lake‐level high is coeval with lake‐level lows in the well‐dated records of palaeolakes Bonneville and Lahontan, and with a period of relatively wet conditions in the more southerly Owens Lake basin. This spatial pattern of pluvial lake levels in the western USA at 12 ¹⁴C ka indicates a variable synoptic response to climate forcing at this time. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献