共享社会经济路径下中国各省城市化水平预测     

丁小江  钟方雷  毛锦凰  宋晓谕  黄春林 《气候变化研究进展》2018,14(4):392-401

城市化水平预测与减缓及适应气候变化研究息息相关。基于国家统计局2005—2015年全国各省区城镇和乡村人口,以各省区2015年人均地区生产总值为指标进行分组,结合IPCC 5种共享社会经济路径（SSPs）的发展特征设置模型参数,运用Logistic模型预测了我国各省区2016—2050年城市化水平。结果表明,到2050年,各省区（除天津、北京、上海、西藏外）在5种典型SSPs下城市化水平收敛于75%左右。其中,SSP1、SSP3、SSP4、SSP5路径下,各省城市化水平比较趋同。而在SSP2路径下,全国总体上从东部到西部城市化程度逐渐降低,空间分布具有明显梯次递减性。5种SSPs路径下城市化速度方面,基本上呈现出中西部快而东部慢、西南快而东北慢的空间分布格局。同时,高收入省份不同路径下的城市化水平差别小,而中低收入省份的差别较大。  相似文献   

A physically-based model of long-term food demand     

《Global Environmental Change》2017

Reducing hunger while staying within planetary boundaries of pollution, land use and fresh water use is one of the most urgent sustainable development goals. It is imperative to understand future food demand, the agricultural system, and the interactions with other natural and human systems. Studying such interactions in the long-term future is often done with Integrated Assessment Modelling. In this paper we develop a new food demand model to make projections several decades ahead, having 46 detailed food categories and population segmented by income and urban vs rural. The core of our model is a set of relationships between income and dietary patterns, with differences between regions and income inequalities within a region. Hereby we take a different, more long-term-oriented approach than elasticity-based macro-economic models (Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models). The physical and detailed nature of our model allows for fine-grained scenario exploration. We first apply the model to the newly developed Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, and then to additional sustainable development scenarios of food waste reduction and dietary change. We conclude that total demand for crops and grass could increase roughly 35–165% between 2010 and 2100, that this future demand growth can be tempered more effectively by replacing animal products than by reducing food waste, and that income-based consumption inequality persists and is a contributing factor to our estimate that 270 million people could still be undernourished in 2050.  相似文献   

Minimum conformal mapping distortion according to Chebyshev’s principle: a case study over peninsular Spain     

M. Bermejo  J. Otero 《Journal of Geodesy》2005,79(1-3):124-134

Defining the distortion of a conformal map projection as the oscillation of the logarithm of its infinitesimal-scale σ, Chebyshev’s principle states that the best (minimum distortion) conformal map projection over a given region Ω of the ellipsoid is characterized by the property that σ is constant on the boundary of that region. Starting from a first map of Ω, we show how to compute the distortion δ₀(Ω) of this Chebyshev’s projection. We prove that this minimum possible conformal mapping distortion associated with Ω coincides with the absolute value of the minimum of the solution of a Dirichlet boundary-value problem for an elliptic partial differential equation in divergence form and with homogeneous boundary condition. If the first map is conformal, the partial differential equation becomes a Poisson equation for the Laplace operator. As an example, we compute the minimum conformal distortion associated with peninsular Spain. Using longitude and isometric latitude as coordinates, we solve the corresponding boundary-value problem with the finite element method, obtaining δ₀(Ω)=0.74869×10⁻³. We also quantify the distortions δ_l and δ_utm of the best conformal conic and UTM (zone 30) projections over peninsular Spain respectively. We get δ_l=2.30202×10⁻³ and δ_utm=3.33784×10⁻³.  相似文献   

Quo vadis,hydrology?     

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(8):1118-1132

This is an invited essay by the Dooge Medallist of the 2017 International Hydrological Prize. The paper reflects a broad perspective on hydrology, as a result of the author’s long experience. It is suggested that transgressing the traditional hydrological perspective, by increasing the scale of research, as well as interdisciplinarization have been, and are likely to remain, key drivers of the development of hydrology. Gaps in knowledge and research challenges are reviewed, and the interlinked areas of stationarity, extremes and projections for the future are discussed. Finally, after reviewing the achievements of Jim Dooge, examples of others following in his footsteps are presented.  相似文献   

Harmonic maps     

E.W. Grafarend 《Journal of Geodesy》2005,78(10):594-615

Harmonic maps are generated as a certain class of optimal map projections. For instance, if the distortion energy over a meridian strip of the International Reference Ellipsoid is minimized, we are led to the Laplace–Beltrami vector-valued partial differential equation. Harmonic functions x(L,B), y(L,B) given as functions of ellipsoidal surface parameters of Gauss ellipsoidal longitude L and Gauss ellipsoidal latitude B, as well as x(,q), y(,q) given as functions of relative isometric longitude =L–L₀ and relative isometric latitude q=Q–Q₀ gauged to a vector-valued boundary condition of special symmetry are constructed. The easting and northing {x(b,),y(b,)} of the new harmonic map is then given. Distortion energy analysis of the new harmonic map is presented, as well as case studies for (1) B[–40°,+40°], L[–31°,+49°], B₀= ±30°, L₀=9° and (2) B[46°,56°], L{[4.5°, 7.5°]; [7.5°, 10.5°]; [10.5°,13.5°]; [13.5°,16.5°]}, B₀= 51°, L₀ {6°,9°,12°,15°}.  相似文献   

Changes in Mean Relative Sea Level around Canada in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries     

Guoqi Han  Zhimin Ma  Nancy Chen  Richard Thomson  Aimée Slangen 《大气与海洋》2015,53(5):452-463

Abstract

Trends in regional mean sea levels can be substantially different from the global mean trend. Here, we first use tide-gauge data and satellite altimetry measurements to examine trends in mean relative sea level (MRSL) for the coasts of Canada over approximately the past 50–100 years. We then combine model output and satellite observations to provide sea level projections for the twenty-first century. The MRSL trend based on historical tide-gauge data shows large regional variations, from 3?mm?y^?1 (higher than the global mean MRSL rise rate of 1.7?mm?y^?1 for 1900–2009) along the southeast Atlantic coast, close to or below the global mean along the Pacific and Arctic coasts, to –9?mm?y^?1 in Hudson Bay, as indicated by the vertical land motion. The combination of altimeter-measured sea level change with Global Positioning System (GPS) data approximately accounts for tide-gauge measurements at most stations for the 1993–2011 period. The projected MRSL change between 1980 and 1999 and between 2090 and 2099 under a medium-high climate change emission scenario (A2) ranges from ?50?cm in northeastern Canada to 75?cm in southeastern Canada. Along the coast of the Beaufort Sea, the MRSL rise is as high as 70?cm. The MRSL change along the Pacific coast varies from ?15 to 50?cm. The ocean steric and dynamical effects contribute to the rise in MRSL along Canadian coasts and are dominant on the southeast coast. Land-ice (glaciers and ice sheets) melt contributes 10–20?cm to the rise in MRSL, except in northeastern Canada. The effect of the vertical land uplift is large and centred near Hudson Bay, significantly reducing the rise in MRSL. The land-ice melt also causes a decrease in MRSL in northeastern Canada. The projected MRSL change under a high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) has a spatial pattern similar to that under A2, with a slightly greater rise in MRSL of 7?cm, on average, and some notable differences at specific sites.  相似文献   

Climate Comparisons and Change Projections for the Northwest Atlantic from Six CMIP5 Models     

John W. Loder  Augustine van der Baaren  Igor Yashayaev 《大气与海洋》2015,53(5):529-555

Abstract

Key physical variables for the Northwest Atlantic (NWA) are examined in the “historical” and two future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations of six Earth System Models (ESMs) available through Phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The variables are air temperature, sea-ice concentration, surface and subsurface ocean temperature and salinity, and ocean mixed-layer depth. Comparison of the historical simulations with observations indicates that the models provide a good qualitative and approximate quantitative representation of many of the large-scale climatological features in the NWA (e.g., annual cycles and spatial patterns). However, the models represent the detailed structure of some important NWA ocean and ice features poorly, such that caution is needed in the use of their projected future changes. Monthly “climate change” fields between the bidecades 1986–2005 and 2046–2065 are described, using ensemble statistics of the changes across the six ESMs. The results point to warmer air temperatures everywhere, warmer surface ocean temperatures in most areas, reduced sea-ice extent and, in most areas, reduced surface salinities and mixed-layer depths. However, the magnitudes of the inter-model differences in the projected changes are comparable to those of the ensemble-mean changes in many cases, such that robust quantitative projections are generally not possible for the NWA.  相似文献   

Uncertainty of Climate Response to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings Due to Different Land Use Scenarios   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alexey V. ELISEEV  Igor I. MOKHOV 《大气科学进展》2011,28(5):1215-1232

The A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS) climate model (CM) of intermediate complexity is extended by a spatially explicit terrestrial carbon cycle module.Numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM are performed forced by the reconstructions of anthropogenic and natural forcings for the 16th to the 20th centuries and by combined SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2-LUH (Land Use Harmonization) anthropogenic scenarios for the 21st century.Hereby,the impact of uncertainty in land-use scenarios on results of simulations with a coupled climate-carbon cycle model is tested.The simulations of the model realistically reproduced historical changes in carbon cycle characteristics.In the IAP RAS CM,climate warming reproduced in the 20th and 21st centuries enhanced terrestrial net primary production but terrestrial carbon uptake was suppressed due to an overcompensating increase in soil respiration.Around year 2100,the simulations the model forced by different land use scenarios diverged markedly,by about 70 Pg (C) in terms of biomass and soil carbon stock but they differed only by about 10 ppmv in terms of atmospheric carbon dioxide content.  相似文献   

DEDICATED PRINCIPAL PROPERTIES FOR PEPTIDE QSARS: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS     

BERTSKAGERBERG  MICHAEL  SVANTEWOLD 《地理学报(英文版)》1990,(3)

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A compromise aspect-adaptive cylindrical projection for world maps     

Bernhard Jenny  Bojan Šavrič  Tom Patterson 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(6):935-952

There are two problems with current cylindrical projections for world maps. First, existing cylindrical map projections have a static height-to-width aspect ratio and do not automatically adjust their aspect ratio in order to optimally use available canvas space. Second, many of the commonly used cylindrical compromise projections show areas and shapes at higher latitudes with considerable distortion. This article introduces a new compromise cylindrical map projection that adjusts the distribution of parallels to the aspect ratio of a canvas. The goal of designing this projection was to show land masses at central latitudes with a visually balanced appearance similar to how they appear on a globe. The projection was constructed using a visual design procedure where a series of graphically optimized projections was defined for a select number of aspect ratios. The visually designed projections were approximated by polynomial expressions that define a cylindrical projection for any height-to-width ratio between 0.3:1 and 1:1. The resulting equations for converting spherical to Cartesian coordinates require a small number of coefficients and are fast to execute. The presented aspect-adaptive cylindrical projection is well suited for digital maps embedded in web pages with responsive web design, as well as GIS applications where the size of the map canvas is unknown a priori. We highlight the projection with a height-to-width ratio of 0.6:1, which we call the Compact Miller projection because it is inspired by the Miller Cylindrical projection. Unlike the Miller Cylindrical projection, the Compact Miller projection has a smaller height-to-width ratio and shows the world with less areal distortion at higher latitudes. A user study with 448 participants verified that the Compact Miller – together with the Plate Carrée projection – is the most preferred cylindrical compromise projection.  相似文献