地球化学标准物质标准不确定度估算探讨   总被引：4，自引：15，他引：4  

鄢明才 《岩矿测试》2001,20(4):287-293

在用高精度分析方法经检验证明样品均匀知识性和稳定性良好的条件下，可以以定值测试的不确定度表示标准物质标准值的不确定度。在较全面分析了地球化学标准物质定值测试的误差后，提出以测试结果平均值的标准偏差算得A类不确定度、以定值方法间的偏倚估计B类不确定度，以两者的合成值作为地理化学标准物质不确定度的估计值，并用其试算了部分已有地球化学标准物质有代表性元素的不确定度，结果表明提出的不确定度估算方法是可信的。  相似文献   

Implications of model uncertainty for the mapping of hillslope‐scale soil erosion predictions     

Richard E. Brazier  Keith J. Beven  Steven G. Anthony  John S. Rowan 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2001,26(12):1333-1352

An integrated modelling approach (MIRSED) which utilizes the process‐based soil erosion model WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) is presented for the assessment of hillslope‐scale soil erosion at five sites throughout England and Wales. The methodology draws upon previous uncertainty analysis of the WEPP hillslope soil erosion model by the authors to qualify model results within an uncertainty framework. A method for incorporating model uncertainty from a range of sources is discussed as a first step towards using and learning from results produced through the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) technique. Results are presented and compared to available observed data, which illustrate that levels of uncertainty are significant and must be taken into account if a meaningful understanding of output from models such as WEPP is to be achieved. Furthermore, the collection of quality, observed data is underlined for two reasons: as an essential tool in the development of soil erosion modelling and also to allow further constraint of model uncertainty. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Effects　of　magnitude　accuracy　and　complete－ness　data　on　seismic　hazard　parameters     

邵辉成  谢家树  王平  王亚秀 《地震学报(英文版)》1996,9(4):635-644

Ｅｆｆｅｃｔｓｏｆｍａｇｎｉｔｕｄｅａｃｃｕｒａｃｙａｎｄｃｏｍｐｌｅｔｅ┐ｎｅｓｄａｔａｏｎｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｈａｚａｒｄｐａｒａｍｅｔｅｒｓＨＵＩ－ＣＨＥＮＧＳＨＡＯ（邵辉成），ＪＩＡ－ＳＨＵＸＩＥ（谢家树），ＰＩＮＧＷＡＮＧ（王平）ａｎｄＹＡ－Ｘ...  相似文献   

地震危险性不确定性分析中专家意见的合理综合   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈汉尧  胡聿贤 《华北地震科学》1993,11(3):1-8

首先回顾了不确定性分析中常用的专家意见综合方法。然后在此基础上,提出了一新的简便易行的综合方法,并利用实例计算比较了三种综合方法的结果差异。所提出的方法在地震危险性不确定性分析专家意见的合理综合中具有较为实用的价值。  相似文献   

Evaluation of safety of hydraulic structures affected by migrating pits     

Y-K. Tung  K. -C. Yeh 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1993,7(2):131-145

Because it can be carried by flowing water, a sand/gravel pit on the river bed could migrate downstream. Consequently, the presence of pits on river beds could pose a safety threat to in-stream hydraulic structures such as bridge piers. A pit migration model can be used to predict progressive changes of pit geometry as it migrates downstream. However, due to the existence of many uncertainties, the maximum pit depth cannot be predicted with certainty. This paper adopted a simple pit migration model and evaluated the uncertainty associated with the calculated maximum pit depth. Such information is essential for evaluating the probability that a migrating pit could pose a safety threat to a downstream hydraulic structure. Three reliability analysis techniques were applied and their performances were compared.  相似文献   

Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*     

Maurits W. Ertsen 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z2):1998-2000

ABSTRACT

Dealing with uncertainty is key in socio-hydrological analysis. As such, thinking through what uncertainties mean for whom and when is key. This discussion contribution introduces three issues related to defining uncertainties. The first issue deals with the problem of defining uncertainty as a given external reality. The second issue deals with who decides about relevant uncertainties. The third issue deals with the issue whether coupled human-hydrological systems can be seen as existing on their own. Finally, the text provides two examples of hydrological research that try to be explicit about our dealing with multiple (interpretations of) realities.  相似文献   

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*     

Ida K. Westerberg  Giuliano Di Baldassarre  Keith J. Beven  Gemma Coxon  Tobias Krueger 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z2):2001-2003

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.  相似文献   

Quantifying the relative impact of hydrological and hydraulic modelling parameterizations on uncertainty of inundation maps     

A. Annis  F. Nardi  E. Volpi  A. Fiori 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(4):507-523

ABSTRACT

Flood risk management strongly relies on inundation models for river basin zoning in flood-prone and risk-free areas. Floodplain zoning is significantly affected by the diverse and concurrent uncertainties that characterize the modelling chain used for producing inundation maps. In order to quantify the relative impact of the uncertainties linked to a lumped hydrological (rainfall–runoff) model and a FLO-2D hydraulic model, a Monte Carlo procedure is proposed in this work. The hydrological uncertainty is associated with the design rainfall estimation method, while the hydraulic model uncertainty is associated with roughness parameterization. This uncertainty analysis is tested on the case study of the Marta coastal catchment in Italy, by comparing the different frequency, extent and depth of inundation simulations associated with varying rainfall forcing and/or hydraulic model roughness realizations. The results suggest a significant predominance of the hydrological uncertainty with respect to the hydraulic one on the overall uncertainty associated with the simulated inundation maps.  相似文献   

Application of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) at different temporal scales to reduce the uncertainty level in modelled river flows     

Ragab Ragab  Alexandra Kaelin  Muhammad Afzal  Ioanna Panagea 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(11):1856-1871

ABSTRACT

In this study, the distributed catchment-scale model, DiCaSM, was applied on five catchments across the UK. Given its importance, river flow was selected to study the uncertainty in streamflow prediction using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology at different timescales (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual). The uncertainty analysis showed that the observed river flows were within the predicted bounds/envelope of 5% and 95% percentiles. These predicted river flow bounds contained most of the observed river flows, as expressed by the high containment ratio, CR. In addition to CR, other uncertainty indices – bandwidth B, relative bandwidth RB, degrees of asymmetry S and T, deviation amplitude D, relative deviation amplitude RD and the R factor – also indicated that the predicted river flows have acceptable uncertainty levels. The results show lower uncertainty in predicted river flows when increasing the timescale from daily to monthly to seasonal, with the lowest uncertainty associated with annual flows.  相似文献   

An IEEE value loop of human-technology collaboration in geospatial information science     

Liqiu Meng 《地球空间信息科学学报》2020,23(1):61-67

ABSTRACT

Geosensing and social sensing as two digitalization mainstreams in big data era are increasingly converging toward an integrated system for the creation of semantically enriched digital Earth. Along with the rapid developments of AI technologies, this convergence has inevitably brought about a number of transformations. On the one hand, value-adding chains from raw data to products and services are becoming value-adding loops composed of four successive stages – Informing, Enabling, Engaging and Empowering (IEEE). Each stage is a dynamic loop for itself. On the other hand, the “human versus technology” relationship is upgraded toward a game-changing “human and technology” collaboration. The information loop is essentially shaped by the omnipresent reciprocity between humans and technologies as equal partners, co-learners and co-creators of new values.

The paper gives an analytical review on the mutually changing roles and responsibilities of humans and technologies in the individual stages of the IEEE loop, with the aim to promote a holistic understanding of the state of the art of geospatial information science. Meanwhile, the author elicits a number of challenges facing the interwoven human-technology collaboration. The transformation to a growth mind-set may take time to realize and consolidate. Research works on large-scale semantic data integration are just in the beginning. User experiences of geovisual analytic approaches are far from being systematically studied. Finally, the ethical concerns for the handling of semantically enriched digital Earth cover not only the sensitive issues related to privacy violation, copyright infringement, abuse, etc. but also the questions of how to make technologies as controllable and understandable as possible for humans and how to keep the technological ethos within its constructive sphere of societal influence.  相似文献