Optimization of SAGD Well Elevation     

Jason A. McLennan  Weishan Ren  Oy Leuangthong  C. V. Deutsch 《Natural Resources Research》2006,15(2):119-127

The application of steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) to recover heavy oil sands is becoming increasingly important in the northern Alberta McMurray Formation because of the vast resources/reserves accessible with this mechanism. Selecting the stratigraphic elevations of SAGD well pairs is a vital decision for reservoir evaluation and planning. The inherent uncertainty in the distribution of geological variables significantly influences this decision. Geostatistical simulation is used to capture geological uncertainty, which is used can be transformed into a distribution of the best possible well pair elevations. A simple exhaustive calculation scheme is used to determine the optimum stratigraphic location of a SAGD well pair where the recovery R is maximized. There are three basic steps to the methodology: (1) model the uncertainty in the top continuous bitumen (TCB) and bottom continuous bitumen (BCB) surfaces, (2) calculate the recovery at all possible elevation increments within the TCB and BCB interval, and (3) identify the elevation that maximizes R. This is repeated for multiple TCB/BCB pairs of surfaces to assess uncertainty. The methodology is described and implemented on a subset of data from the Athabasca Oilsands in Fort McMurray, Alberta.  相似文献   

Relationship of Uncertainty and Line Segment for Between Polygon Segment Spatial Data in GIS     

LIU Chun TONG Xiaohua 《地球空间信息科学学报》2005,8(3):183-188

The mathematic theory for uncertainty model of line segment are summed up to achieve a general conception, and the line error hand model of εσ is a basic uncertainty model that can depict the line accuracy and quality efficiently while the model of εm and error entropy can be regarded as the supplement of it. The error band model will reflect and describe the influence of line uncertainty on polygon uncertainty. Therefore, the statistical characteristic of the line error is studied deeply by analyzing the probability that the line error falls into a certain range. Moreover, the theory accordance is achieved in the selecting the error buffer for line feature and the error indicator. The relationship of the accuracy of area for a polygon with the error loop for a polygon boundary is deduced and computed.  相似文献   

基于不确定性分析框架的动态环状河网水质模型——以温州市温瑞塘河为例   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

徐一剑  曾思育  张天柱 《水科学进展》2005,16(4):574-580

以温州市温瑞塘河为背景,基于不确定性分析的框架,开发了动态环状河网水质模型。用HSY(Hornberger,Spear and Young)算法作水质参数的不确定性分析,求得模型参数的空间分布,从而提高模型使用的可靠性、降低决策的风险度。模型由水量子模型及水质子模型两部分组成:水量子模型采用圣维南方程并用四级解法求解;水质子模型采用CSTR(Continuously Stirred Tank Reactor)模型的机理,并结合环状河网特征作了修正,由于只需解常微分方程,因而避免了矩阵求解,显著提高了计算效率,使得用HSY算法进行不确定性分析成为可能。模型选取温州市温瑞塘河流域的鹿城区河网进行了首次应用,用HSY算法率定水质参数并讨论了参数的不确定性。对参数率定结果进行验证,结果比较理想。最后简要讨论了参数不确定性传递。  相似文献   

Evaluation of the Reduction in Uncertainty Obtained by Conditioning a 3D Stochastic Channel to Multiwell Pressure Data     

Fengjun Zhang  Albert C. Reynolds  Dean S. Oliver 《Mathematical Geology》2002,34(6):715-742

A stochastic channel embedded in a background facies is conditioned to data observed at wells. The background facies is a fixed rectangular box. The model parameters consist of geometric parameters that describe the shape, size, and location of the channel, and permeability and porosity in the channel and nonchannel facies. We extend methodology previously developed to condition a stochastic channel to well-test pressure data, and well observations of the channel thickness and the depth of the top of the channel. The main objective of this work is to characterize the reduction in uncertainty in channel model parameters and predicted reservoir performance that can be achieved by conditioning to well-test pressure data at one or more wells. Multiple conditional realizations of the geometric parameters and rock properties are generated to evaluate the uncertainty in model parameters. The ensemble of predictions of reservoir performance generated from the suite of realizations provides a Monte Carlo estimate of the uncertainty in future performance predictions. In addition, we provide some insight on how prior variances, data measurement errors, and sensitivity coefficients interact to determine the reduction in model parameters obtained by conditioning to pressure data and examine the value of active and observation well data in resolving model parameters.  相似文献   

Method of Data Reduction and Uncertainty Estimation for Platinum-Group Element Data Using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

James C. Ely  Clive R. Neal 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2002,26(1):31-39

A data reduction method is described for determining platinum-group element (PGE) abundances by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) using external calibration or the method of standard addition. Gravimetric measurement of volumes, the analysis of reference materials and the use of procedural blanks were all used to minimise systematic errors. Internal standards were used to correct for instrument drift. A linear least squares regression model was used to calculate concentrations from drift-corrected counts per second (cps). Furthermore, mathematical manipulations also contribute to the uncertainty estimates of a procedure. Typical uncertainty estimate calculations for ICP-MS data manipulations involve: (1) Carrying standard deviations from the raw cps through the data reduction or (2) calculating a standard deviation from multiple final concentration calculations. It is demonstrated that method 2 may underestimate the uncertainty estimate of the calculated data. Methods 1 and 2 do not typically include an uncertainty estimate component from a regression model. As such models contribute to the uncertainty estimates affecting the calculated data, an uncertainty estimate component from the regression must be included in any final error calculations. Confidence intervals are used to account for uncertainty estimates from the regression model. These confidence intervals are simpler to calculate than uncertainty estimates from method 1, for example. The data reduction and uncertainty estimation method described here addresses problems of reporting PGE data from an article in the literature and addresses both precision and accuracy. The method can be applied to any analytical technique where drift corrections or regression models are used.  相似文献   

河流水质风险评价的灰色-随机风险率方法   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

胡国华  夏军  赵沛伦 《地理科学》2002,22(2):249-252

提出了量化影响河流水质的随机不确定性与灰色不确定性的水质超标灰色－随机风险率概念，建立了水质超标灰色－随机风险率评价模型。在水质单项参数评价模型中，将河流污染物浓度变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布，将污染物浓度超过水质类别标准值的风险率处理成灰色概率，即水质超标灰色－随机风险率。在水质综合评价模型中，河流水环境系统被考虑为担任某一使用可能的可靠性系统，而任意一种水质参数超标意味着河流水体使用功能不能得到应有的保证，也即表明水体综合评价超标，最后借鉴系统可靠性分析的理论和方法计算水质综合超标率。该方法应用于黄河花园口断面重金属污染风险评价。  相似文献   

污染地下水治理过程不确定性的影响因素分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

宋汉周 《水文》2003,23(4):8-12

污染含水层系统中地下水质的恢复之所以往往收效不大，在于地下水去除污染过程中存在诸多不确定性因素。文中把之分为两类：一类具有客观不确定性；另一类则具有主观不确定性。前一类中包括：(1)污染含水层介质的非均一性；(2)污染物的非平衡吸附作用；(3)污染物吸附分配系数的非均一性；(4)部分有机污染物的非水溶性；(5)PAT方案中非完整井以及水流的影响等。后一类则包括数值模拟中模型的概化以及参数的取值等。最后，概述了研究此类问题较为有效的方法，即应包括问题的定义、不确定性分析以及风险(或失效)评估等。  相似文献   

测量误差与测量不确定度表述方法的研究   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

张前勇  孙海燕 《测绘工程》2003,12(1):17-19

研究了国家计量技术规范－－《测量不确定度评定与表示》（JJF1059－1999）与测量数据处理的误差理论的区别与联系。讨论了如何依照JJF1059－1999的规定，完整、准确地评价和描述测量结果。  相似文献   

Prediction of volumes and risk in hydrocarbon exploration: a quantification of geology     

H. J. Nijhuis 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1997,86(2):322-331

 The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure, reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited. Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable, consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables. As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios. Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996  相似文献   

物理实验中的不确定度评定   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈玉林  叶影  徐飞 《南京气象学院学报》2004,27(5):700-706

阐述了不确定度的定义、来源、分类及用不确定度评定测量结果的一些表示方法。分析了误差和不确定度的区别。最终给出了测量不确定度的评定。  相似文献