Effect of rainfall uncertainty on the performance of physically based rainfall–runoff models     

Ignacio Fraga  Luis Cea  Jernimo Puertas 《水文研究》2019,33(1):160-173

This paper analyses the effect of rain data uncertainty on the performance of two hydrological models with different spatial structures: a semidistributed and a fully distributed model. The study is performed on a small catchment of 19.6 km² located in the north‐west of Spain, where the arrival of low pressure fronts from the Atlantic Ocean causes highly variable rainfall events. The rainfall fields in this catchment during a series of storm events are estimated using rainfall point measurements. The uncertainty of the estimated fields is quantified using a conditional simulation technique. Discharge and rain data, including the uncertainty of the estimated rainfall fields, are then used to calibrate and validate both hydrological models following the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. In the storm events analysed, the two models show similar performance. In all cases, results show that the calibrated distribution of the input parameters narrows when the rain uncertainty is included in the analysis. Otherwise, when rain uncertainty is not considered, the calibration of the input parameters must account for all uncertainty in the rainfall–runoff transformation process. Also, in both models, the uncertainty of the predicted discharges increase in similar magnitude when the uncertainty of rainfall input increase.  相似文献   

Spatio‐temporal variability of the isotopic input signal in a partly forested catchment: Implications for hydrograph separation     

Carles Cayuela  Jrme Latron  Josie Geris  Pilar Llorens 《水文研究》2019,33(1):36-46

The isotopic composition of precipitation (D and ¹⁸O) has been widely used as an input signal in water tracer studies. Whereas much recent effort has been put into developing methodologies to improve our understanding and modelling of hydrological processes (e.g., transit‐time distributions or young water fractions), less attention has been paid to the spatio‐temporal variability of the isotopic composition of precipitation, used as input signal in these studies. Here, we investigated the uncertainty in isotope‐based hydrograph separation due to the spatio‐temporal variability of the isotopic composition of precipitation. The study was carried out in a Mediterranean headwater catchment (0.56 km²). Rainfall and throughfall samples were collected at three locations across this relatively small catchment, and stream water samples were collected at the outlet. Results showed that throughout an event, the spatial variability of the input signal had a higher impact on hydrograph separation results than its temporal variability. However, differences in isotope‐based hydrograph separation determined preevent water due to the spatio‐temporal variability were different between events and ranged between 1 and 14%. Based on catchment‐scale isoscapes, the most representative sampling location could also be identified. This study confirms that even in small headwater catchments, spatio‐temporal variability can be significant. Therefore, it is important to characterize this variability and identify the best sampling strategy to reduce the uncertainty in our understanding of catchment hydrological processes.  相似文献   

Assessing uncertainty in best management practice effectiveness under future climate scenarios          下载免费PDF全文

Sean A. Woznicki  A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2550-2566

Uncertainty of best management practice (BMP) performance in future climates is an important consideration for water resources managers. The objective of this study was to quantify the level of uncertainty in performance of seven agricultural BMPs due to climate change in reducing sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus loads. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool coupled with mid‐21^st century climate data from the Community Climate System Model were used to develop climate change scenarios for the Tuttle Creek Lake Watershed of Kansas and Nebraska. Uncertainty level of each BMP was determined using Latin Hypercube Sampling, a constrained Monte Carlo sampling technique. Samples were taken from distributions of several variables (monthly precipitation, temperature, CO₂, and BMP implementation parameters). Cumulative distribution functions were constructed for each BMP, pollutant, and climate scenario combination. Results demonstrated that BMP performance uncertainty is amplified in the extreme climate scenario. Among BMPs, native grass replacement generally had higher uncertainty level but also had the greatest reductions. This study highlights the importance of incorporating uncertainty analysis into mitigation strategies aiming to reduce negative impacts of climate change on water resources. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions          下载免费PDF全文

Elisabeth Stephens  Paul Bates 《水文研究》2015,29(19):4264-4283

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD‐FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post‐peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to channel erosion uncertainty during extreme flooding          下载免费PDF全文

Jefferson S. Wong  Jim E. Freer  Paul D. Bates  David A. Sear  Elisabeth M. Stephens 《水文研究》2015,29(2):261-279

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilize the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry and channel long‐profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D–2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD‐FP) of the ~1 : 2000 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of simulated scenarios of channel erosional changes were constructed on the basis of a simple velocity‐based model of critical entrainment. A Monte‐Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of this channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected an approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion that enveloped observed erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long‐profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude of event modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead, morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel‐bed rivers such as the one used in this research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Calibration of paired watersheds: Utility of moving sums in presence of externalities          下载免费PDF全文

Herbert Ssegane  Devendra M. Amatya  Augustine Muwamba  George M. Chescheir  Tim Appelboom  E.W. Tollner  Jami E. Nettles  Mohamed A. Youssef  François Birgand  R.W. Skaggs 《水文研究》2017,31(20):3458-3471

Historically, paired watershed studies have been used to quantify the hydrological effects of land use and management practices by concurrently monitoring 2 similar watersheds during calibration (pretreatment) and post‐treatment periods. This study characterizes seasonal water table and flow response to rainfall during the calibration period and tests a change detection technique of moving sums of recursive residuals (MOSUM) to select calibration periods for each control–treatment watershed pair when the regression coefficients for daily water table elevation were most stable to minimize regression model uncertainty. The control and treatment watersheds were 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old intensely managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) with natural understory, 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old loblolly pine intercropped with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), 1 watershed of 14–15‐year‐old thinned loblolly pine with natural understory (control), and 1 watershed of switchgrass only. The study period spanned from 2009 to 2012. Silvicultural operational practices during this period acted as external factors, potentially shifting hydrologic calibration relationships between control and treatment watersheds. MOSUM results indicated significant changes in regression parameters due to silvicultural operations and were used to identify stable relationships for water table elevation. None of the calibration relationships developed using this method were significantly different from the classical calibration relationship based on published historical data. We attribute that to the similarity of historical and 2010–2012 leaf area index on control and treatment watersheds as moderated by the emergent vegetation. Although the MOSUM approach does not eliminate the need for true calibration data or replace the classic paired watershed approach, our results show that it may be an effective alternative approach when true data are unavailable, as it minimizes the impacts of external disturbances other than the treatment of interest.  相似文献   

A discontinuous finite element suspended sediment transport model for water quality assessments in river networks          下载免费PDF全文

Fabricio Fiengo Pérez  Lieve Sweeck  Marc Elskens  Willy Bauwens 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1804-1816

Suspended sediment plays an important role in the distribution and transport of many pollutants (such as radionuclides) in rivers. Pollutants may adsorb on fine suspended particles (e.g. clay) and spread according to the suspended sediment movement. Hence, the simulation of the suspended sediment mechanism is indispensable for realistic transport modelling. This paper presents and tests a simple mathematical model for predicting the suspended sediment transport in river networks. The model is based on the van Rijn suspended load formula and the advection–diffusion equation with a source or sink term that represents the erosion or deposition fluxes. The transport equation is solved numerically with the discontinuous finite element method. The model evaluation was performed in two steps, first by comparing model simulations with the measured suspended sediment concentrations in the Grote Nete–Molse Nete River in Belgium, and second by a model intercomparison with the sediment transport model NST MIKE 11. The simulations reflect the measurements with a Nash‐Sutcliffe model efficiency of 0.6, while the efficiency between the proposed model and the NST MIKE 11 simulations is 0.96. Both evaluations indicate that the proposed sediment transport model, that is sufficiently simple to be practical, is providing realistic results.  相似文献   

Ensemble simulation of land evapotranspiration in China based on a multi-forcing and multi-model approach     

Jianguo Liu  Binghao Jia  Zhenghui Xie  Chunxiang Shi 《大气科学进展》2016,33(6):673-684

In order to reduce the uncertainty of offline land surface model(LSM) simulations of land evapotranspiration(ET), we used ensemble simulations based on three meteorological forcing datasets [Princeton, ITPCAS(Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Qian] and four LSMs(BATS, VIC, CLM3.0 and CLM3.5), to explore the trends and spatiotemporal characteristics of ET, as well as the spatiotemporal pattern of ET in response to climate factors over mainland China during 1982–2007. The results showed that various simulations of each member and their arithmetic mean(Ens Mean) could capture the spatial distribution and seasonal pattern of ET sufficiently well, where they exhibited more significant spatial and seasonal variation in the ET compared with observation-based ET estimates(Obs MTE). For the mean annual ET, we found that the BATS forced by Princeton forcing overestimated the annual mean ET compared with Obs MTE for most of the basins in China, whereas the VIC forced by Princeton forcing showed underestimations. By contrast, the Ens Mean was closer to Obs MTE, although the results were underestimated over Southeast China. Furthermore, both the Obs MTE and Ens Mean exhibited a significant increasing trend during 1982–98; whereas after 1998, when the last big EI Ni ?no event occurred, the Ens Mean tended to decrease significantly between 1999 and 2007, although the change was not significant for Obs MTE. Changes in air temperature and shortwave radiation played key roles in the long-term variation in ET over the humid area of China, but precipitation mainly controlled the long-term variation in ET in arid and semi-arid areas of China.  相似文献   

Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties     

Feifan Zhou  Munehiko Yamaguchi  Xiaohao Qin 《大气科学进展》2016,33(7):841-851

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions (“initials”, hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.  相似文献   

多波束测量的精度控制与规范指标   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

梁志诚  黄文骞  魏帅  吴坚  张俊杰 《测绘工程》2016,25(2)

分析多波束测量、辅助测量的数据精度,研究其对成果水深的影响程度,结合《海道测量规范》与《多波束水深测量技术规定》中的测量等级指标,以及IHO规范中对水深不确定度的定义和传播结构的介绍,建立数学模型反解出符合规范的作业环境与辅助测量数据的等级指标,提出明确的多波束测量作业精度控制的技术指标,为测量数据的质量监控建立更全面的评价标准。  相似文献