GRAPES区域集合预报尺度混合初始扰动构造的新方案   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

马旭林  计燕霞  周勃旸  时洋  李琳琳  郭欢 《大气科学学报》2018,41(2):248-257

集合预报初始扰动能否准确反映预报误差的结构特征是决定区域集合预报质量的关键因素之一。本文针对GRAPES区域数值预报模式,发展设计了一种基于资料同化思想的混合尺度初始扰动构造新方案。该方案以全球大尺度信息为背景场,区域模式预报作为观测资料,借助GRAPES三维变分同化系统,将高质量的全球大尺度信息与区域模式预报中质量较高的中小尺度信息有效融合,构造混合尺度区域集合预报初始扰动,并通过个例试验和批量试验,比较分析了新方案和原区域集合预报的性能。试验结果表明,基于资料同化构造的初始扰动能够有效融合全球大尺度信息和中小尺度天气系统的信息,其降水概率预报更具参考价值。总体上看,区域集合预报混合初始扰动新方案能够较好地改进区域集合预报质量,尤其是对高度场和温度场效果更为显著,但对风场的集合预报性能影响略小。  相似文献   

区域一体化研究综述：尺度、联系与边界   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

陈航航  贺灿飞  毛熙彦 《热带地理》2018,38(1):1-12

区域一体化是当今世界最具活力的经济现象之一,它是一个多维度的空间现象,也是一个多学科参与的科学问题。地理学独特的尺度、联系和边界视角对于理解区域一体化是如何改变世界经济格局及其对国家和区域发展的影响有重要意义。文章梳理了区域一体化理论和发展,以尺度、联系和边界的分析视角重新审视了快速发展的区域一体化进程,阐述了区域一体化的网络化特征和多维联系,重新定义了区域一体化中的多重边界,并从“全球―地方”联系的角度对区域一体化进程下有关区域和地方发展的研究进行了综述。区域一体化的实践表现出越来越多的网络特征,形成了以国家权力和关系为导向,涵盖多维度邻近的立体网络空间;区域一体化的边界效应重塑了全球经济格局,同时传统的领土边界依然重要;区域一体化的制度安排深刻影响了一国边境地区的发展和经济地理格局。最后,针对区域一体化,从尺度建构、内部联系、边界效应和多元分析框架等角度指出了亟待学界解决的一些问题,并展望了未来的研究趋势。  相似文献   

东部三大经济区城市流动人口的多维度社会融入及其地区差异   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

夏贵芳  朱宇  林李月  柯文前 《地理科学进展》2018,37(3):373-384

以流动人口集中的京津冀、长三角和珠三角三大经济区35个城市2012年流动人口动态监测数据为基础,采用均方差权值法,综合经济、社会、心理、制度和公共服务5个维度构建衡量流动人口社会融入的指标体系,在此基础上计算和比较了三大经济区及其35个城市流动人口各维度社会融入指标和社会融入综合水平得分及其地区差异。研究结论显示,社会融入综合水平得分由高到低依次是京津冀、长三角、珠三角。同一地区流动人口的融入状况在各个维度不均衡,京津冀地区流动人口社会维度的融入程度最高,制度维度融入程度最低;长三角地区流动人口的心理维度融入居前列,但社会维度融入位列最后;珠三角地区流动人口的社会维度融入程度最高,公共服务维度融入不足。此外,就整体而言,三大地区流动人口的工作强度大、交往对象固化于流动人口、在流入地长期居住意愿多数仍处于举棋不定的状态;三大地区都存在落实居住证/暂住证制度和流动人口享有城镇医保等方面较为薄弱等诸多问题并共同制约着流动人口真正融入流入城市。为此,需要在政策制定中予以关注。  相似文献   

中国人类福祉地区差距演变及其影响因素——基于人类发展指数(HDI)的分析   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

王圣云  罗玉婷  韩亚杰  李晶 《地理科学进展》2018,37(8):1150-1158

应用空间基尼系数、泰尔系数分解及面板模型等方法,对1995-2013年中国人类福祉地区差距及其影响因素进行分析,结果显示：①1995-2013年中国人类福祉省际差距整体趋于缩小。其中,“九五”时期不断缩小,“十五”时期波动变化,“十一五”时期快速缩小,“十二五”时期趋同发展;②四大区域之间的人类福祉差距是最主要的差距,但其贡献率总体呈递减趋势,而区域内人类福祉省际差距的贡献率呈递增趋势。西部地区人类福祉的省际差距最大但降幅明显,东部地区人类福祉的省际差距先扩大后降低,中部、东北地区人类福祉省际差距相对较小且不断缩小;③中国人类福祉地区差距和城乡收入差距同向扩大。加快经济发展、增加教育经费投入均可提高中国各省的人类福祉水平,但也可能扩大地区差距。提高卫生经费占比的增长率可降低中国人类福祉水平,但却能有效缩小中国地区之间的福祉差距。提高人均社会保障支出和人均转移支付,既能提高中国各省区的人类福祉水平,又可起到促进地区之间福祉均衡作用。  相似文献   

区际贸易隐含碳排放转移研究进展与展望   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

李富佳 《地理科学进展》2018,37(10):1303-1313

区际贸易隐含碳排放转移是导致区际碳泄漏、碳减排权责失衡等问题的重要原因,对全球碳排放格局及碳减排效果影响重大。研究区际碳转移时空格局演化规律和内在驱动机理,研制针对性碳转移优化调控方案,对提升区域整体碳减排效率和经济生态综合效益,具有重要现实意义,近年来已引起了国内外学者越来越多的关注,逐渐成为区域可持续发展和生态经济研究的热点问题之一。本文对国内外区际碳转移的相关研究成果进行了梳理,重点总结了对中国省际隐含碳转移问题研究的进展和成果应用情况,展望了区际贸易碳转移问题未来研究的方向：进一步重视国际、省际碳排放转移间的协同研究,揭示区际碳排放转移的动态驱动力及驱动机理,探索创新基于共同责任的省际碳转移减排机制等。  相似文献   

Regional Differentiation and Classification for Carrying Constraints on the Resources and Environment of China     

ZHANG Xuefei  XU Yong  LI Lijuan  DAI Erfu  XU Weihua 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2018,9(2):135-145

Research on the relationship between national resource constraint-region types and environmental carrying capacity is essential for the continued development of Chinese industrialization and urbanization. Thus, utilizing a series of key indexes including the per-capita potential of available land resources, the per-capita potential of available water resources, the degree of environmental stress, and the degree of ecological restriction, a step-by-step, integrated measuring method is presented here to understand the constrained carrying elements of water and land resources as well as environment and ecology. Spatial differences are analyzed and area types classified at the county level across China. Results reveal that: (1) Almost 90% of China is strongly constrained by both resources and the environment, while nearly 50% of national territory is strongly constrained by two elements, especially in areas of intensive population and industry to the east of the Helan-Longmen Mountain line; (2) Densely populated areas of eastern and central China, as well as on the Tibetan Plateau, are strongly constrained by a shortage of land resources, while North China, the northwest, northeast, the Sichuan basin, and some southern cities are experiencing strong constraints because of water shortages. In contrast, the North China plain, the Yangtze River delta, northern Jiangsu, Sichuan province, Chongqing municipality, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces, the northeast plain, and the northern Loess Plateau are constrained by high levels of environmental stress. Areas of China that are strongly ecologically constrained tend to be concentrated to the southwest of the Tianshan-Dabie Mountain line, as well as in the northeast on the Loess Plateau, in the Alashan of Inner Mongolia, in northeast China, and in the northern Jiangsu coastal area; (3) Constraints on national resources and environmental carrying capacity are diverse and cross-cut China, meanwhile, multi-element spatial distribution does reveal a degree of relative centralization. With the exception of the Tibetan Plateau which is resources-ecological constraint , other areas subject to cross constraints are mainly concentrated to the east of the Helan-Longmen Mountain line.  相似文献   

Global pesticide use and trade database (GloPUT): New estimates show pesticide use trends in low-income countries substantially underestimated     

《Global Environmental Change》2023

Assessments of pesticide impacts globally and holistic policies to address them require accurate pesticide use data, but good use data are difficult to find. For comparable estimates across countries, researchers and policymakers depend upon pesticide use data collected by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). We analyze the FAO database and find declines in data reporting and data quality since 2007. We present a novel method that uses bilateral paired mirror trade statistics and an index of reporter reliability to add, update and/or replace data for 137 countries. The resulting Global Pesticide Use and Trade (GloPUT) database shows pesticide use in low and lower-middle income countries has been substantially underestimated. Over the last decade, global pesticide use grew 20% by volume; use in low-income countries grew by 153% over the same period. GloPUT estimates more accurately reflect social science findings on recent agrichemical supply chain restructuring and agrarian development, which indicate substantial increases in pesticide use. Significant issues with data reporting and quality mean that the impacts of recent changes in pesticide production, availability and adoption were not reflected in the FAO database, and, as a result, neither are they reflected in high profile environmental assessments.  相似文献   

‘Fair trade gold’: Antecedents, prospects and challenges     

Gavin Hilson 《Geoforum》2008,39(1):386-400

This paper critically examines the challenges with, and impacts of, adopting the models in place for fair trade agriculture in the artisanal gold mining sector. Over the past two years, an NGO-led ‘fair trade gold’ movement has surfaced, its crystallization fuelled by a burgeoning body of evidence that points to impoverished artisanal miners in developing countries receiving low payments for their gold, as well as working in hazardous and unsanitary conditions. Proponents of fair trade gold contest that increased interaction between artisanal miners and Western jewellers could facilitate the former receiving fairer prices for gold, accessing support services, and ultimately, improving their quality of life. In the case of sub-Saharan Africa, however, the gold being mined on an artisanal scale does not supply Western retailers as perhaps believed; it is rather an important source of foreign exchange, which host governments employ buyers to collect for their coffers. It is maintained here that if the underlying purpose of fair trade is to improve the livelihoods and well-being of subsistence producers in developing countries, then the models that have proved so successful in alleviating the hardships of agro-producers of ‘tropical’ commodities such as coffee, tea, bananas and cocoa, should be adapted to artisanal gold mining in sub-Saharan Africa. Campaigns promoting ‘fair trade gold’ in the region should view host governments, and not Western retailers, as the ‘end consumer’, and focus on improving governance at the grassroots, organizing informal operators into working cooperatives, and addressing complications with purchasing arrangements - all of which would go a long way toward improving the livelihoods of subsistence artisanal miners. A case study of Noyem, Ghana, the location of a sprawling illegal gold mining community, is presented, which magnifies these challenges further and provides perspective on how they can be overcome.  相似文献   

基于显式统计原理的地质灾害区域预警方法初步研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

刘艳辉  刘传正连建发温铭生唐 灿 《中国地质》2008,35(2):344-350

区域预警是提高防灾减灾意识、有效减轻地质灾害造成损失的重要手段。地质灾害显式统计预警理论考虑了地质环境变化与降雨参数等多因素的耦合作用,克服了传统单一临界雨量判据方法的局限。笔者应用地质灾害显式统计预警的基本原理,以中国的东南区为例开展应用研究。选取岩土体类型、地形起伏等12个基础地质环境因素.通过确定性系数模型(CF)综合分析了地质灾害分布与地质环境基础因素的关系.选取地质灾害"潜势度"作为地质环境优劣的指标,并进行了定量计算。选取当日雨量和一个降雨过程的前期累计雨量作为降雨激发因素的指标.采用多元回归的统计分析方法,分析了地质环境因素、降雨激发因素的耦合作用与地质灾害发育情况之间的关系.建立了显式统计的地质灾害预警预报模型。以2006年5月18日台风"珍珠"登陆期间的实况预警情况对模型进行了应用校验。验证了显式统计预警原理及模型方法的可行性和实用性。  相似文献   

新疆阿尔泰西北部白哈巴一冲乎尔一带加里东和海西两期区域变质作用的厘定     

彭 东 徐胜兰 林 丽 彭 波王显锋  谢云喜 《中国地质》2008,35(4):628-638

通过对新疆西北部阿尔泰白哈巴—冲乎尔一带详细的野外地质填图和综合研究,在原划分的奥陶纪、震旦—寒武纪地层中分别采获了早泥盆世双壳化石,获得了加里东期、海西期不同期次的同位素地质年龄,在浅变质岩中划分出了石英岩状结构亚带和刺状结构亚带,在区域动力热流变质岩中划分出蓝晶石带、矽线石带、铁铝榴石带、十字石带等。新的证据表明,研究区白哈巴地区发育加里东期和海西期两期区域低温动力变质,南东部发育两期区域动力热流变质,海流滩为加里东期,冲乎尔则为海西期,沿库根断裂带产生叠加。这一划分使争论了近半个世纪的该区变质类型和变质世代的问题有了新的答案。  相似文献