Climate change and hydrology at the prairie margin: Historic and prospective future flows of Canada's Red Deer and other Rocky Mountain rivers          下载免费PDF全文

Laurens J. Philipsen  Karen M. Gill  Anita Shepherd  Stewart B. Rood 《水文研究》2018,32(17):2669-2684

The South Saskatchewan River Basin of southern Alberta drains the transboundary central Rocky Mountains region and provides the focus for irrigation agriculture in Canada. Following extensive development, two tributaries, the Oldman and Bow rivers, were closed for further water allocations, whereas the Red Deer River (RDR) remains open. The RDR basin is at the northern limit of the North American Great Plains and may be suitable for agricultural expansion with a warming climate. To consider irrigation development and ecological impacts, it is important to understand the regional hydrologic consequences of climate change. To analyse historic trends that could extend into the future, we developed century‐long discharge records for the RDR, by coordinating data across hydrometric gauges, estimating annual flows from seasonal records, and undertaking flow naturalization to compensate for river regulation. Analyses indicated some coordination with the Pacific decadal oscillation and slight decline in summer and annual flows from 1912 to 2016 (?0.13%/year, Sen's slope). Another forecasting approach involved regional downscaling from the global circulation models, CGCMI‐A, ECHAM4, HadCM3, and NCAR‐CCM3. These projected slight flow decreases from the mountain headwaters versus increases from the foothills and boreal regions, resulting in a slight increase in overall river flows (+0.1%/year). Prior projections from these and other global circulation models ranged from slight decrease to slight increase, and the average projection of ?0.05%/year approached the empirical trend. Assessments of other rivers draining the central and northern Rocky Mountains revealed a geographic transition in flow patterns over the past century. Flows from the rivers in Southern Alberta declined (around ?0.15%/year), in contrast to increasing flows in north‐eastern British Columbia and the Yukon. The RDR watershed approaches this transition, and this study thus revealed regional differentiation in the hydrological consequences from climate change.  相似文献   

Daily river water temperature forecast model with a k‐nearest neighbour approach     

André St‐Hilaire  Taha B. M. J. Ouarda  Zoubeida Bargaoui  Anik Daigle  Laurent Bilodeau 《水文研究》2012,26(9):1302-1310

Water temperature is a key abiotic variable that modulates both water chemistry and aquatic life in rivers and streams. For this reason, numerous water temperature models have been developed in recent years. In this paper, a k‐nearest neighbour model (KNN) is proposed and validated to simulate and eventually produce a one‐day forecast of mean water temperature on the Moisie River, a watercourse with an important salmon population in eastern Canada. Numerous KNN model configurations were compared by selecting different attributes and testing different weight combinations for neighbours. It was found that the best model uses attributes that include water temperature from the two previous days and an indicator of seasonality (day of the year) to select nearest neighbours. Three neighbours were used to calculate the estimated temperature, and the weighting combination that yielded the best results was an equal weight on all three nearest neighbours. This nonparametric model provided lower Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE = 1·57 °C), Higher Nash coefficient (NTD = 0·93) and lower Relative Bias (RB = ? 1·5%) than a nonlinear regression model (RMSE = 2·45 °C, NTD = 0·83, RB = ? 3%). The k‐nearest neighbour model appears to be a promising tool to simulate of forecast water temperature where long time series are available. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

后疫情时代世界天然铀供需结构与我国天然铀供需趋势分析     

张晓  蔡煜琦  林双幸  宋继叶  王健菲 《地质论评》2022,68(2):2022030031-2022030031

铀是世界重要的能源原料,更是国家发展的重要战略资源,随着我国核电产业的快速发展,世界天然铀供需结构将发生巨大变化。本文以权威机构发布的最新数据为基础,总结了当前世界铀资源分布及其生产现状,结合世界及我国核电发展现状和发展趋势,分析了后疫情时代和“两碳目标”下世界天然铀供需结构。目前,世界铀资源可保障核电产业中长期发展需求,但中国铀资源禀赋以及铀生产规模均无法满足当前国内核电发展需求,随着中国核电的快速发展,需依赖国外铀资源以及国际铀市场来补足,随之世界天然铀供需结构亦将发生变化。为了保障我国天然铀长期稳定供给,一方面需要加大国内铀资源勘查开发力度,另一方面要实施“走出去”战略,以提高我国在世界铀资源配置中的地位,保障我国核电可持续发展。  相似文献   

深埋炭质板岩隧道的大变形分级研究     

赵东 《地质与勘探》2022,58(6):1261-1270

为合理实现炭质板岩隧道的大变形分级,以木寨岭隧道大变形段五个监测断面的监测成果为基础,利用极限位移准则实现其现状分级,利用递进优化思路构建隧道大变形预测模型,并根据外推预测结果的速率均值实现大变形发展趋势分级。结合隧道大变形的现状分级和发展趋势分级结果,开展隧道大变形发育程度的综合评价。实例分析表明：在大变形现状分级过程中,不同位置处的大变形等级存在一定差异,其中,以DK180+960 m断面的大变形程度相对最为严重,属Ⅴ级-极严重,其余四个断面的大变形等级为Ⅳ级-严重;通过发展趋势分级,得DK180+940 m断面和DK180+960 m断面的大变形发展趋势等级为2级,其余三个监测断面属1级,均具持续增加趋势,趋于不利方向发展。结合前述大变形现状分级和发展趋势分级结果,综合得出DK180+960 m断面的大变形最为不利,其次是DK180+940 m断面,其余三个断面的大变形程度相似。因此,可根据断面的大变形综合评价结论来制定具有针对性的防治措施,以达到优化现场防治措施的目的。  相似文献   

中国岩相古地理研究进展          下载免费PDF全文

牟传龙 《沉积与特提斯地质》2022,42(3):340-349

我国的岩相古地理研究大致经历了三个大的发展时期。初期阶段：20世纪80年代以前,主体是以古生物地层学的理论为指导编制出版大区域的古地理图集,集中反映海陆分布,岩相内容较少,较少的学者开展了岩相古地理研究,揭开了由古地理图向岩相古地理图转变的序幕。快速发展阶段：20世纪80年代至2000年,总体上是以大地构造学、古生物地层学、沉积学等理论为指导,开展了大量的岩相古地理研究与编图工作,并采取多种编图思路和方法编制大区域的岩相古地理图,是我国岩相古地理研究与编图大发展时期,形成了丰硕的理论和实践成果。编制的图件不仅尽量体现活动性古地理的学术前沿,而且更多的是强化实用性,聚焦对沉积层控矿产远景预测和油气勘探的支撑和指导作用。现代阶段：2000年至今,岩相古地理研究与编图聚焦支撑油气地质调查与勘探成为了这段时间的主题,采取不同的编图思路和方法编制出版了大区域的岩相古地理图。具有三大特点：一是编图资料丰富,技术方法新颖;二是编图思路先进,体现了以构造为主线,岩相古地理恢复为核心,支撑服务油气为根本的研究思路;三是以服务油气目标为特色。由于大数据、人工智能等信息技术突飞猛进促进大数据岩相古地理向前发展,数字岩相古地理必将推动我国在岩相古地理编图思路和技术方法的创新,提升支撑服务沉积矿产找矿和油气勘探开发的精准性和预测性水平。  相似文献   

趋势面分析在高原地区音频大地电磁测深中的应用     

韩鹏  王龙  万晓锋 《江苏地质》2023,47(1):66-72

常规音频大地电磁法,如EH-4电磁成像系统,在资料处理时通常不能有效分辨部分异常区域。以青海海北某公路隧道勘探为例,研究趋势面分析法在音频大地电磁测深中的应用。结果表明：通过拟合趋势面方程,可获取研究区内任一位置的视电阻率值,在拟合度较高的情况下可对区外的视电阻率值进行预测与估计;野外观测数据通常受随机因素的影响,可通过趋势面分析法对随机噪声进行平滑滤波处理;剩余值反映了视电阻率异常特征,绘制剩余值等值线图可以在去除区域背景视电阻率值后对异常区域进行凸显。音频大地电磁探测成果与趋势面分析法结合能更充分地利用地质信息。  相似文献   

基于恒等式原理的中国钢铁工业铌资源需求预测研究     

李天骄  刘新茹  刘越颀  袁小晶  李颖  李建武 《地球学报》2023,44(2):286-296

铌主要应用于钢铁的生产,含铌钢材广泛应用于航空航天、海洋工程、汽车与交通、能源化工及工程机械等高端制造领域。中国是当前世界第一大铌资源消费国,供需矛盾极为突出,严重依赖国外资源。为保障中国铌资源供应安全与钢铁产业结构调整提供依据,本文基于恒等式原理构建了钢铁工业铌资源需求预测模型,参考发达国家钢铁工业铌资源消费经验,对中国钢铁工业铌需求进行了定量预测。研究结果表明:(1)中国铌工业和钢铁工业现代化程度明显落后于发达国家;(2)典型发达国家含铌钢产量占粗钢产量比例从最低值增长至最高值呈现出一定的规律性;(3)到2030年,中国钢铁工业铌资源需求将持续增长,2025年钢铁工业铌资源需求为3.3～5.2万t、2030年为4.0～7.1万t,中国铌资源供应安全面临严峻挑战。为此,本文建议持续扩大中国铌资源海外权益产量、提高国内储量、加强铌资源提取和二次资源回收技术研发来保障国内外铌资源稳定的供应,同时推进国内铌相关产业建设。  相似文献   

Observed Trends in Extreme Temperature over the Klang Valley,Malaysia     

Ahmad Norazhar Mohd YATIM  Mohd Talib LATIF  Fatimah AHAMAD  Md Firoz KHAN  Mohd Shahrul Mohd NADZIR  Liew JUNENG 《大气科学进展》2019,36(12):1355-1370

This study investigates the recent extreme temperature trends across 19 stations in the Klang Valley, Malaysia, over the period 2006-16. Fourteen extreme index trends were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, with Sen’s slope as a magnitude estimator. Generally, the annual daily mean temperature, daily mean maximum temperature, and daily mean minimum temperature in the Klang Valley increased significantly, by 0.07°C yr~(-1), 0.07°C yr~(-1)and 0.08°C yr~(-1),respectively. For the warm temperature indices, the results indicated a significant upward trend for the annual maximum of maximum temperature, by 0.09°C yr~(-1), and the annual maximum of minimum temperature, by 0.11°C yr~(-1). The results for the total number of warm days and warm nights showed significant increasing trends of 5.02 d yr~(-1)and 6.92 d yr~(-1),respectively. For the cold temperature indices, there were upward trends for the annual minimum of maximum temperature,by 0.09°C yr~(-1), and the annual minimum of minimum temperature, by 0.03°C yr~(-1), concurrent with the decreases in the total number cold days (TX10P), with-3.80 d yr~(-1), and cold nights (TN10P), with-4.33 d yr~(-1). The 34°C and 37°C summer days results showed significant upward trends of 4.10 d yr~(-1) and 0.25 d yr~(-1), respectively. Overall, these findings showed upward warming trends in the Klang Valley, with the minimum temperature rate increasing more than that of the maximum temperature, especially in urban areas.  相似文献   

1976-2017年乌鲁木齐市升温对季节的影响     

张月华  王健  蒋慧敏 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2019,13(4):96-102

本文采用乌鲁木齐市国家基准气象站463站的逐日平均、逐日最低和逐日最高气温资料,分析了乌鲁木齐市1976-2017年气温变化趋势和对四季的影响。结果表明：乌市气温有明显上升的趋势,年平均气温的线性增温速率为0.50℃/10a,1997年出现了最暖年,1976年以来最暖的10 a均出现在20世纪末至今;年平均最低气温升温趋势最为明显,倾向率为0.77℃/10a,上升速率约是年平均最高气温的2.5倍;气温上升导致春季和夏季的开始日期提前明显、秋季和冬季开始日期有推后的趋势,使得夏季明显延长,延长率为5.9d/10a,近42a来共增加25d,其他季节则有不同程度的缩短,其中冬季缩短最为明显,缩短率为-3.6d/10a,近42a来共缩短了15d;各季节开始日期不仅与年平均气温相关性很好,且开春期、入夏期分别与3月和6月平均气温显著负相关;入秋期与入冬期分别与9月和11月气温呈显著正相关;夏季和冬季的长度也与年平均气温显著相关,当年平均气温每上升1℃时,夏季将延长6d,而冬季则会缩短7 d。  相似文献   

几种格点化温度滚动订正预报方案对比研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

曾晓青  薛峰  赵瑞霞  赵声蓉 《气象》2019,45(7):1009-1018

为了快速获得更为精准的格点温度预报产品,使用国家信息中心高分辨率、高频次的温度格点多元融合产品和欧洲中期天气预报中心全球模式2 m温度预报场资料,采用8种误差订正方案进行滚动订正预报试验。选择2017年1月1日至2月28日和6月1日至7月31日两个时间段进行两次回报模拟试验,并对订正前后的预报结果进行格点和站点检验分析,结果表明:8种方案对模式直接输出的预报场有正技巧订作用,全格点滑动误差回归模型订正和全格点滑动双因子回归模型订正效果最优,两种方案都能使订正场的格点平均绝对误差在2℃以下,3、6和9 h的格点准确率均在0.9以上。全格点滑动误差回归模型的检验评分略微好于全格点滑动双因子回归模型,表明作为预报模型因子的起报时刻误差场比数值模式因子在短期订正中扮演着更为重要的角色。  相似文献