Projected changes in population exposure to extreme heat in China under a RCP8.5 scenario   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Dapeng Huang  Lei Zhang  Ge Gao  Shao Sun 《地理学报(英文版)》2018,28(10):1371-1384

Overall population exposure is measured by multiplying the annual average number of extremely hot days by the number of people exposed to the resultant heat. Extreme heat is also subdivided into high temperature (HT) and extremely high temperature (EHT) in cases where daily maximum temperature exceeds 35°C and 40°C, respectively. Chinese population exposure to HT and EHT over four periods in the future (i.e., 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2060–2081 and 2081–2100) were projected at the grid cell level in this study using daily maximum temperature based on an ensemble mean of 21 global climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario and with a population projection based on the A2r socio-economic scenario. The relative importance of population and climate as drivers of population exposure was evaluated at different spatial scales including national and meteorological geographical divisions. Results show that, compared with population exposure seen during 1981–2010, the base period, exposure to HT in China is likely to increase by 1.3, 2.0, 3.6, and 5.9 times, respectively, over the four periods, while concomitant exposure to EHT is likely to increase by 2.0, 8.3, 24.2, and 82.7 times, respectively. Data show that population exposure to HT is likely to increase significantly in Jianghuai region, Southwest China and Jianghan region, in particular in North China, Huanghuai region, South China and Jiangnan region. Population exposure to EHT is also likely to increase significantly in Southwest China and Jianghan region, especially in North China, Huanghuai, Jiangnan, and Jianghuai regions. Results reveal that climate is the most important factor driving the level of population exposure in Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, and Jiangnan regions, as well as in South and Southwest China, followed by the interactive effect between population and climate. Data show that the climatic factor is also most significant at the national level, followed by the interactive effect between population and climate. The rate of contribution of climate to national-level projected changes in exposure is likely to decrease gradually from ca. 70% to ca. 60%, while the rate of contribution of concurrent changes in both population and climate is likely to increase gradually from ca. 20% to ca. 40% over the four future periods in this analysis.  相似文献   

Gen*: a generic toolkit to generate spatially explicit synthetic populations     

Kevin Chapuis  Patrick Taillandier  Misslin Renaud  Alexis Drogoul 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(6):1194-1210

Agent-based models tend to integrate more and more data that can deeply impact their outcomes. Among these data, the ones that deal with agent attributes and localization are particularly important, but are very difficult to collect. In order to tackle this issue, we propose a complete generic toolkit called Gen* dedicated to generating spatially explicit synthetic populations from global (census and GIS) data. This article focuses on the localization methods provided by Gen* that are based on regression, geometrical constraints and spatial distributions. The toolkit is applied for a case study concerning the generation of the population of Rouen (France) and shows the capabilities of Gen* regarding population spatialization.  相似文献   

Spatiotemporal wetland changes and their threats in North Central Ethiopian Highlands     

《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2018,39(3):332-350

Wetlands are important environmental resources for rural livelihoods in Ethiopia. The study investigated spatiotemporal change of wetlands, drivers and effects in North Central Ethiopian Highlands. Landsat satellite imageries of 1984, 1993, 2000, and 2013 were used to analyse wetland changes over the last three decades. Practical observations, interviews and discussions with local communities and officers were also conducted to address the main objective. Furthermore, secondary data on crop yields were collected to supplement the primary data. The study shows that wetlands have been converted into built‐up areas and farmlands. Wetlands in the study area experienced annual loss across the entire study period. Consequently, the area size of wetlands decreased from 7.4 per cent in 1984 to 2.6 per cent in 2013. About 66 per cent of the total wetlands was lost within 30 years mainly due to farmland encroachment and urban expansions. The highest rate of wetland change was recorded between 2000 and 2013. Such wetland changes increased conflicts among land users. However, the converted wetlands increased short‐term benefits due to wetland recession agriculture. To conclude, wetland resources are under enormous threats, and challenge the sustainability of livelihoods. Thus, integrated and adaptive wetland restoration policies could improve the degraded wetlands.  相似文献   

人口集聚对中国城市经济增长的影响分析   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

陈乐  李郇  姚尧  陈栋胜 《地理学报》2018,73(6):1107-1120

人口集聚是新经济地理学关注的焦点,由于连续年份城市建设用地数据难以获取等原因,目前仍无法明确人口集聚是否促进了中国城市经济增长。采用消除连续年份时空异质性的DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据方法所提取的建设用地等数据,通过构建人口密度影响地均收入水平的理论模型,分析2005-2013年间人口集聚对中国35个大城市经济增长的影响。研究发现人口集聚对中国城市经济增长产生显著的正向影响,其影响程度沿东、中、西部依次递减;在解释机制上,人口集聚主要通过知识和人力资本促进中国城市经济的增长,而知识密集行业占比和高校师生比的空间分布及两者对城市收入的影响是沿东、中、西部依次递减的,是解释人口集聚促进城市经济增长存在空间差异的主要原因。  相似文献   

中国14个连片特困地区的森林转型及其解释   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王宏  阎建忠  李惠莲 《地理学报》2018,73(7):1253-1267

利用MODIS土地覆盖数据,分析了2002-2013年中国14个连片特困地区森林转型的特点,探明了连片特困地区林地变化的趋势及其空间异质性。在此基础上,选择空间变量,建立线性回归模型探究林地面积变化的影响因素,得出连片特困地区森林转型所遵循的路径。结果表明,2002-2013年间,中国14个连片特困地区林地面积净增加106554.75 km²,增长率为11.93%,森林进入转型后期,即森林面积净增加阶段;秦巴山区、武陵山区、西藏地区东南部、四省藏区东部、燕山—太行山区东部是林地增长的热点区域,而林地增长冷点区域则主要分布在800 mm等降水量线以北的广大区域、大别山区和滇桂黔石漠化区东部;非农人口的增加以及林业工程的实施都对林地面积的增加有显著的促进作用,中国14个连片特困地区的森林转型主要遵循着经济发展路径和国家森林政策路径。在连片特困地区,应加快小城镇建设的步伐,同时依托其丰富的自然资源,因地制宜地发展乡村生态旅游业;国家森林政策方面,应将连片特困地区作为生态建设重点区域,切实保护中国的森林资源。  相似文献   

基于相互作用关系的中国省际人口流动研究     

豆晓  ARELLANO Blanca  ROCA Josep 《地理研究》2018,37(9):1848-1861

基于2000年、2010年人口普查及2005年、2015年人口抽样调查数据,采用相互作用关系模型计算了中国“人口流动系统”和“单向相互作用关系值”。结果表明：① 人口流动具有明显的凝聚性,东部地区对流动人口的吸引力依然具有绝对优势;② 省际人口流动呈“非对称双向迁移模式”,人口回流的趋势已不容忽视;③ 长三角地区逐渐代替珠三角成为新的人口流动中心,人口流动开始北移;④ 中西部地区的人口流动分中心某种意义上已经出现,人口就近转移日渐凸显。将2010-2015年间省际人口流动新规律和特征与1995-2010年进行动态对比,对于制定未来人口和区域发展政策,继续缩小东西部地区之间的差距,最终实现区域协调发展具有重要意义。  相似文献   

中国人口健康脆弱性地区差异与影响因素分析   总被引：9，自引：4，他引：5  

杨振  丁启燕  王念  刘会敏 《地理科学》2018,38(1):135-142

通过构建人口健康脆弱性评价指标体系,利用集对分析法对中国31个省级行政区（不含港、澳、台）的健康脆弱性指数进行测算,同时引入障碍度模型考察脆弱性指数分布差异的影响因素,并对各省区主要障碍因子进行识别。研究发现：① 2014年中国人口健康脆弱性省际差异较大,总体上处于中、高水平,在空间上呈现明显的“西高、东低、中部居中”分异格局,与健康敏感性、应对性指数的地域分布不尽一致;② 各省区健康脆弱性指数分布的地域级差化特征明显,低脆弱省市均分布在东部地带,高脆弱省区均分布在西部地带,中度和较高脆弱水平的省区数量最多,在三大地带上均有分布;③ 健康脆弱性降低的主要障碍因子存在较大地区差异,促进经济发展、增加社保支出、加大卫生投入、改善医疗条件和优化生态环境对降低脆弱性尤为重要。  相似文献   

Development of an establishment scheme for a DGVM     

Xiang Song  Xiaodong Zeng  Jiawen Zhu  Pu Shao 《大气科学进展》2016,33(7):829-840

Environmental changes are expected to shift the distribution and abundance of vegetation by determining seedling establishment and success. However, most current ecosystem models only focus on the impacts of abiotic factors on biogeophysics (e.g., global distribution, etc.), ignoring their roles in the population dynamics (e.g., seedling establishment rate, mortality rate, etc.) of ecological communities. Such neglect may lead to biases in ecosystem population dynamics (such as changes in population density for woody species in forest ecosystems) and characteristics. In the present study, a new establishment scheme for introducing soil water as a function rather than a threshold was developed and validated, using version 1.0 of the IAP-DGVM as a test bed. The results showed that soil water in the establishment scheme had a remarkable influence on forest transition zones. Compared with the original scheme, the new scheme significantly improved simulations of tree population density, especially in the peripheral areas of forests and transition zones. Consequently, biases in forest fractional coverage were reduced in approximately 78.8% of the global grid cells. The global simulated areas of tree, shrub, grass and bare soil performed better, where the relative biases were reduced from 34.3% to 4.8%, from 27.6% to 13.1%, from 55.2% to 9.2%, and from 37.6% to 3.6%, respectively. Furthermore, the new scheme had more reasonable dependencies of plant functional types (PFTs) on mean annual precipitation, and described the correct dominant PFTs in the tropical rainforest peripheral areas of the Amazon and central Africa.  相似文献   

Stability of genetic diversity in an intertidal goby population after exposure to tsunami disturbance          下载免费PDF全文

Shotaro Hirase  Minoru Ikeda  Shun Hayasaka  Wataru Iwasaki  Akihiro Kijima 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(5):1161-1167

Massive tsunami disturbances have potentially detrimental effects on genetic diversity and effective population size of coastal marine species, and evaluating these effects can be useful for devising conservation strategies for coastal marine environments. Local populations of the intertidal goby Chaenogobius annularis, which are distributed on scattered rocky beaches of the Japanese Archipelago, show demographic independence without overlapping generations, making this an ideal species with which to study the effects of tsunami disturbance on genetic diversity. Some of these populations were affected by the tsunami of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake. Here, we investigated the change in genetic diversity of a local population of this species, which was located close to the epicenter of the earthquake, across the cohorts before and after the tsunami and evaluated the impact of the tsunami disturbance. Genetic diversity was maintained after the tsunami, and no change in the effective population size was observed. Our results suggest that the tsunami disturbance has had no marked impact on the genetic diversity of C. annularis.  相似文献   

海上浮式核电站温排水对海洋生态环境的影响   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

兰志刚  李新仲  肖钢  刘聪 《海洋科学》2016,40(6):84-88

开发海上浮式核电站,可以有效地解决海洋工业的用能需求,符合国家能源发展战略。海上核电冷却循环系统产生的温排水会对海洋环境本体及其生态系统产生一定的负面影响,是环评工作关注的重点。论述了海上核电站温排水的特点,分析了其对受纳海域水文条件、海水水质、生态环境、生物群落组成与结构等方面产生的影响,提出了温排水的热污染控制对策。  相似文献