Assessing spatial associations between perceptions of landscape value and climate change risk for use in climate change planning   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Christopher M. Raymond  Gregory Brown 《Climatic change》2011,104(3-4):653-678

This study examines spatially referenced perceived landscape values and climate change risks collected through public participation geographic information systems for potential use in climate change planning. Using survey data from the Southern Fleurieu Peninsula, South Australia, we present a method for identifying perceived landscape values and climate change risks to describe and quantify their spatial associations. Two spatial data models??vector and raster??and two analytical methods??Jaccard coefficients and spatial cross-correlations were used to describe the spatial associations. Results indicate that perceptions of climate change risk are driven, in part, by the values people assign or hold for places on the landscape. Biodiversity and intrinsic landscape values have strong spatial association with biodiversity loss risk while recreation values have strong spatial association with riparian flooding, sea-level rise and wave action risks. Other landscape values show weak to no spatial association with perceived climate change risks. The methodology described in this research provides a mechanism for government agencies to develop place-based adaptation strategies based on these associations.  相似文献   

Rethinking urban water management: Experimentation as a way forward?     

M. Farrelly  R. Brown 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(2):721-732

There is widespread acceptance regarding the need to transition towards more sustainable urban water practices. Supporting such a transition requires new governance frameworks that can accommodate complexity and uncertainty, and organisational cultures that embrace experimentation and learning. This empirically focused research paper examines how eleven, alternative local-scale experiments were initiated while operating in an unsympathetic regime. Furthermore, the perceptions of more than 150 urban water practitioners across Australia are presented, regarding the importance of and difficulty in undertaking experimentation in the urban water sector, and the necessary mechanisms for influencing a step change to sustainable urban water management practices. Interviewees revealed perceived limitations in experimenting with new technologies and practices when operating within a hierarchical and market-based governance paradigm. Also, industry conservatism and the dominant risk-based management approach both operate as significant constraints to promoting an experimentation culture, and are closely related to concerns about public health and financial implications. Overall, the research highlights the Australian urban water sector is willing to embrace learning-by-doing; however, a stronger emphasis on promoting an organisational and industry-wide culture of experimentation and learning is required. Policy implications for future water governance are discussed.  相似文献   

Decadal‐Scale Changes of the Ödenwinkelkees,Central Austria,Suggest Increasing Control of Topography and Evolution Towards Steady State          下载免费PDF全文

Jonathan L. Carrivick  Katie Berry  Martin Geilhausen  William H.M. James  Christopher Williams  Lee E. Brown  David M. Rippin  Steve J. Carver 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2015,97(3):543-562

Small mountain glaciers have short mass balance response times to climate change and are consequently very important for short‐term contributions to sea level. However, a distinct research and knowledge gap exists between (1) wider regional studies that produce overview patterns and trends in glacier changes, and (2) in situ local scale studies that emphasise spatial heterogeneity and complexity in glacier responses to climate. This study of a small glacier in central Austria presents a spatiotemporally detailed analysis of changes in glacier geometry and changes in glaciological behaviour. It integrates geomorphological surveys, historical maps, aerial photographs, airborne LiDAR data, ground‐based differential global positioning surveys and Ground Penetrating Radar surveys to produce three‐dimensional glacier geometry at 13 time increments spanning from 1850 to 2013. Glacier length, area and volume parameters all generally showed reductions with time. The glacier equilibrium line altitude increased by 90 m between 1850 and 2008. Calculations of the mean bed shear stress rapidly approaching less than 100 kPA, of the volume–area ratio fast approaching 1.458, and comparison of the geometric reconstructions with a 1D theoretical model could together be interpreted to suggest evolution of the glacier geometry towards steady state. If the present linear trend in declining ice volume continues, then the Ödenwinkelkees will disappear by the year 2040, but we conceptualise that non‐linear effects of bed overdeepenings on ice dynamics, of supraglacial debris cover on the surface energy balance, and of local topographically driven controls, namely wind‐redistributed snow deposition, avalanching and solar shading, will become proportionally more important factors in the glacier net balance.  相似文献   

Using Shoreline Video Assessment for coastal planning and restoration in the context of climate change in Kien Giang,Vietnam     

Van Cuong  Chu  Russell  Michael  Brown  Sharon  Dart  Peter 《Ocean Science Journal》2015,50(2):413-432

Kien Giang, bordering Cambodia in the Mekong River Delta, is one of the two most vulnerable provinces in the region to coastal erosion and flooding. Coastal protection can conflict with current land use and economic development activities. The conditions of the mangrove forest and mainland coastline of the Kien Giang province were assessed using the Shoreline Video Assessment Method (SVAM) backed up with information from satellite images. Half of the 206 km Kien Giang coastline has been eroded or is being eroded. Protective mangrove forests naturally occurred in 74% of the coastline but have been under threat from illegal cutting, erosion and coastal retreat. Accurate information on the state of the coastline and mangrove forest health provided invaluable data for developing a new coastal rehabilitation plan to guard against future sea level rise. In contrast to the current boundary management of land and natural resources, this plan divided the provincial coastline into 19 sections based on the landscape condition and exposure to erosion. Priority strategic actions for erosion management, mangrove restoration and sustainable livelihood development for local communities for each section of coast were developed based on an integrated cross sectoral approach and practical experience in the Conservation and Development of the Kien Giang Biosphere Reserve Project.

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The frequency of window damage caused by bolide airbursts: A quarter century case study          下载免费PDF全文

Nayeob Gi  Peter Brown  Michael Aftosmis 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2018,53(7):1413-1431

We have empirically estimated how often fireball shocks produce overpressure (∆P) at the ground sufficient to damage windows. Our study used a numerical entry model to estimate the energy deposition and shock production for a suite of 23 energetic fireballs reported by U.S. Government sensors over the last quarter century. For each of these events, we estimated the peak ∆P on the ground and the ground area above ∆P thresholds of 200 and 500 Pa where light and heavy window damage, respectively, are expected. Our results suggest that at the highest ∆P, it is the rare, large fireballs (such as the Chelyabinsk fireball) which dominate the long-term areal ground footprints for heavy window damage. The height at the fireball peak brightness and the fireball entry angle contribute to the variance in ground ∆P, with lower heights and shallower angles producing larger ground footprints and more potential damage. The effective threshold energy for fireballs to produce heavy window damage is ~5–10 kT; such fireballs occur globally once every 1–2 years. These largest annual bolide events, should they occur over a major urban center with large numbers of windows, can be expected to produce economically significant window damage. However, the mean frequency of heavy window damage (∆P above 500 Pa) from fireball shock waves occurring over urban areas is estimated to be approximately once every 5000 yr. Light window damage (∆P above 200 Pa) is expected every ~600 yr.  相似文献   

Estimation of flood damage functions for river basin planning: a case study in Bangladesh     

Y. C. Ethan Yang  Patrick A. Ray  Casey M. Brown  Abedalrazq F. Khalil  Winston H. Yu 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(3):2773-2791

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Water source dynamics of high Arctic river basins          下载免费PDF全文

Phillip J. Blaen  David M. Hannah  Lee E. Brown  Alexander M. Milner 《水文研究》2014,28(10):3521-3538

Arctic river basins are amongst the most vulnerable to climate change. However, there is currently limited knowledge of the hydrological processes that govern flow dynamics in Arctic river basins. We address this research gap using natural hydrochemical and isotopic tracers to identify water sources that contributed to runoff in river basins spanning a gradient of glacierization (0–61%) in Svalbard during summer 2010 and 2011. Spatially distinct hydrological processes operating over diurnal, weekly and seasonal timescales were characterized by river hydrochemistry and isotopic composition. Two conceptual water sources (‘meltwater’ and ‘groundwater’) were identified and used as a basis for end‐member mixing analyses to assess seasonal and year‐to‐year variability in water source dynamics. In glacier‐fed rivers, meltwater dominated flows at all sites (typically >80%) with the highest contributions observed at the beginning of each study period in early July when snow cover was most extensive. Rivers in non‐glacierized basins were sourced initially from snowmelt but became increasingly dependent on groundwater inputs (up to 100% of total flow volume) by late summer. These hydrological changes were attributed to the depletion of snowpacks and enhanced soil water storage capacity as the active layer expanded throughout each melt season. These findings provide insight into the processes that underpin water source dynamics in Arctic river systems and potential future changes in Arctic hydrology that might be expected under a changing climate. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Fluid generation and evolution during exhumation of deeply subducted UHP continental crust: Petrogenesis of composite granite–quartz veins in the Sulu belt,China          下载免费PDF全文

S.‐J. Wang  L. Wang  M. Brown  P. M. Piccoli  T. E. Johnson  P. Feng  H. Deng  K. Kitajima  Y. Huang 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2017,35(6):601-629

Composite granite–quartz veins occur in retrogressed ultrahigh pressure (UHP) eclogite enclosed in gneiss at General's Hill in the central Sulu belt, eastern China. The granite in the veins has a high‐pressure (HP) mineral assemblage of dominantly quartz+phengite+allanite/epidote+garnet that yields pressures of 2.5–2.1 GPa (Si‐in‐phengite barometry) and temperatures of 850–780°C (Ti‐in‐zircon thermometry) at 2.5 GPa (~20°C lower at 2.1 GPa). Zircon overgrowths on inherited cores and new grains of zircon from both components of the composite veins crystallized at c. 221 Ma. This age overlaps the timing of HP retrograde recrystallization dated at 225–215 Ma from multiple localities in the Sulu belt, consistent with the HP conditions retrieved from the granite. The ε_Hf(t) values of new zircon from both components of the composite veins and the Sr–Nd isotope compositions of the granite consistently lie between values for gneiss and eclogite, whereas δ¹⁸O values of new zircon are similar in the veins and the crustal rocks. These data are consistent with zircon growth from a blended fluid generated internally within the gneiss and the eclogite, without any ingress of fluid from an external source. However, at the peak metamorphic pressure, which could have reached 7 GPa, the rocks were likely fluid absent. During initial exhumation under UHP conditions, exsolution of H₂O from nominally anhydrous minerals generated a grain boundary supercritical fluid in both gneiss and eclogite. As exhumation progressed, the volume of fluid increased allowing it to migrate by diffusing porous flow from grain boundaries into channels and drain from the dominant gneiss through the subordinate eclogite. This produced a blended fluid intermediate in its isotope composition between the two end‐members, as recorded by the composite veins. During exhumation from UHP (coesite) eclogite to HP (quartz) eclogite facies conditions, the supercritical fluid evolved by dissolution of the silicate mineral matrix, becoming increasingly solute‐rich, more ‘granitic’ and more viscous until it became trapped. As crystallization began by diffusive loss of H₂O to the host eclogite concomitant with ongoing exhumation of the crust, the trapped supercritical fluid intersected the solvus for the granite–H₂O system, allowing phase separation and formation of the composite granite–quartz veins. Subsequently, during the transition from HP eclogite to amphibolite facies conditions, minor phengite breakdown melting is recorded in both the granite and the gneiss by K‐feldspar+plagioclase+biotite aggregates located around phengite and by K‐feldspar veinlets along grain boundaries. Phase equilibria modelling of the granite indicates that this late‐stage melting records P–T conditions towards the end of the exhumation, with the subsolidus assemblage yielding 0.7–1.1 GPa at <670°C. Thus, the composite granite–quartz veins represent a rare example of a natural system recording how the fluid phase evolved during exhumation of continental crust. The successive availability of different fluid phases attending retrograde metamorphism from UHP eclogite to amphibolite facies conditions will affect the transport of trace elements through the continental crust and the role of these fluids as metasomatic agents interacting with the mantle wedge in the subduction channel.  相似文献   

The Congo Basin forests in a changing climate: Policy discourses on adaptation and mitigation (REDD+)     

Olufunso A. Somorin  H. Carolyn Peach Brown  Ingrid J. Visseren-Hamakers  Denis J. Sonwa  Bas Arts  Johnson Nkem 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(1):288-298

This paper discusses the discourses on climate change adaptation and mitigation that are currently at the forefront in the Congo Basin. On mitigation, the forests have enormous opportunities to contribute to the reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) mechanism. But the forest itself and its multiple dependent societies and sectors need to adapt to potential climate risks. Hence, actors are debating the design of climate change policy in the forest sector. Theoretically, we combine the agency-focus of frame analysis and discourse theory to analyze how different agents hold frames on climate change adaptation and mitigation policies in the region. This paper draws upon interviews with 103 different actors from government, international organizations, non-governmental organizations, research institutions and private sector in three countries: Cameroon, Central African Republic (CAR) and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Three discourses were found on policy response to climate change in the forest sector: mitigation policy only, separated policy on adaptation and mitigation, and an integrated policy on adaptation and mitigation. The various frames articulated around each discourse by the coalitions include elements of: costs and benefits, scale of operation, effectiveness, financial resources and implementation mechanisms. Overall, the mitigation discourse, through its mix of actors, resources and interests seems to be stronger than the adaptation discourse. The paper finally outlines a number of implications of the discourses for policy design.  相似文献   

Application of stress mapping in cross‐section to understanding ore geometry,predicting ore zones and development of drilling strategies     

J. L. Mair  V. J. Ojala  B. P. Salier  D. I. Groves  S. M. Brown 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(5):895-912

Stress mapping is a numerical modelling technique used to determine the distribution and relative magnitude of stress during deformation in a mineralised terrane. It is based on the general principle that fluid flow in the Earth's crust is primarily related to pressure gradients. It is best applied to epigenetic hydrothermal mineral deposits, where fluid flow and fluid flux are enhanced in dilational sections of structures and in sites of enhanced rock permeability due to high fracture density. These are defined by sites of low minimum principal stress (σ₃). Most stress mapping is carried out in two dimensions in plan view using geological maps. This is suitable for terranes with steeply dipping lithostratigraphy and structures in which the distribution of mineral deposits is largely controlled by fault structures portrayed on the maps. However, for terranes with gently dipping sequences and structures, and for situations where deposits are sited in and near the hinges of complex fold structures, stress mapping in cross‐section is preferable. The effectiveness of stress mapping is maximised if mineralisation was late in the evolutionary history of the host terrane, and hence the structural geometry of the terrane and contained deposits were essentially that expressed today. The orientation of syn‐mineralisation far‐field stresses must also be inferred. Two examples of orogenic gold deposits, which meet the above criteria, are used to illustrate the potential of stress mapping in cross‐section. Sunrise Dam, located in the Archaean Yilgarn Craton, is a lode‐gold deposit sited in a thrust‐fold belt. Stress mapping illustrates the heterogeneity of stress distribution in the complex structural geometry of the deposit, and predicts the preferential siting of ore zones around the intersections of more steeply dipping, linking thrusts and banded iron‐formation units, and below the controlling more gently dipping basal thrust, the Sunrise Shear. The Howley Anticline in the Pine Creek block hosts several Palaeoproterozoic gold deposits, sited in complex anticlinal structures in greywacke sequences. Stress mapping indicates that gold ores should develop in the hinge zones of symmetrical anticlines, in the hinge zones and more steeply dipping to overturned limbs of asymmetric anticlines, and in and around thrusts in both anticlines and parasitic synclines. The strong correlation between the predictions of the stress mapping, based on the distribution of low σ₃, and the location of gold ores emphasises the potential of stress mapping in cross‐section, not only as an exploration tool for the discovery of additional resources or deposits, but also as a test of geological models. Knowledge of the potential siting of gold ores and their probable orientations also provides a guide to drilling strategies in both mine‐ and regional‐scale exploration.  相似文献