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11.
Models that calculate the probability that a new volcano or a dike from a nearby eruption will intersect the footprint of the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository are generalized based on a conceptual model developed for the space transportation industry. The proposed hazard area, defined such that every new eruption that occurs there will disrupt the repository, plays a fundamental role in developing probability models. This hazard area is used not only to hedge the uncertainties in predicting patterns of future volcanic activity, but also to account for the characteristics of a new eruption during the post-closure performance period of an underground geologic repository. The paper discusses the advantages of probability comparisons, capabilities of conservativeness measurements and expert-elicitation on model parameters, and the implications to the proposed repository.Paper funded by a contract from the Agency for Nuclear Projects, State of Nevada, USA. 相似文献
12.
Chih-Hsiang Ho Eugene I Smith Daniel L Feuerbach Terry R Naumann 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1991,54(1):50-56
Investigations are currently underway to evaluate the impact of potentially adverse conditions (e.g. volcanism, faulting, seismicity) on the waste-isolation capability of the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA. This paper is the first in a series that will examine the probability of disruption of the Yucca Mountain site by volcanic eruption. In it, we discuss three estimating techniques for determining the recurrence rate of volcanic eruption (), an important parameter in the Poisson probability model. The first method is based on the number of events occurring over a certain observation period, the second is based on repose times, and the final is based on magma volume. All three require knowledge of the total number of eruptions in the Yucca Mountain area during the observation period (E). Following this discussion we then propose an estimate of E which takes into account the possibility of polygenetic and polycyclic volcanism at all the volcanic centers near the Yucca Mountain site.Paper financed by the Nuclear Waste Project Office, State of Nevada, USA 相似文献