The paper intends to present the development of the extended weather research forecasting data assimilation (WRFDA) system in the framework of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model core of weather research forecasting system (WRF-NMM), as an imperative aspect of numerical modeling studies. Though originally the WRFDA provides improved initial conditions for advanced research WRF, we have successfully developed a unified WRFDA utility that can be used by the WRF-NMM core, as well. After critical evaluation, it has been strategized to develop a code to merge WRFDA framework and WRF-NMM output. In this paper, we have provided a few selected implementations and initial results through single observation test, and background error statistics like eigenvalues, eigenvector and length scale among others, which showcase the successful development of extended WRFDA code for WRF-NMM model. Furthermore, the extended WRFDA system is applied for the forecast of three severe cyclonic storms: Nargis (27 April–3 May 2008), Aila (23–26 May 2009) and Jal (4–8 November 2010) formed over the Bay of Bengal. Model results are compared and contrasted within the analysis fields and later on with high-resolution model forecasts. The mean initial position error is reduced by 33% with WRFDA as compared to GFS analysis. The vector displacement errors in track forecast are reduced by 33, 31, 30 and 20% to 24, 48, 72 and 96 hr forecasts respectively, in data assimilation experiments as compared to control run. The model diagnostics indicates successful implementation of WRFDA within the WRF-NMM system. 相似文献
Accurate prediction of settlement for shallow footings on cohesionless soil is a complex geotechnical problem due to large uncertainties associated with soil. Prediction of the settlement of shallow footings on cohesionless soil is based on in situ tests as it is difficult to find out the properties of soil in the laboratory and standard penetration test (SPT) is the most often used in situ test. In data driven modelling, it is very difficult to choose the optimal input parameters, which will govern the model efficiency along with a better generalization. Feature subset selection involves minimization of both prediction error and the number of features, which are in general mutual conflicting objectives. In this study, a multi-objective optimization technique is used, where a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA II) is combined with a learning algorithm (neural network) to develop a prediction model based on SPT data based on the Pareto optimal front. Pareto optimal front gives the user freedom to choose a model in terms of accuracy and model complexity. It is also shown how NSGA II can be effectively applied to select the optimal parameters and besides minimizing the error rate. The developed model is compared with existing models in terms of different statistical criteria and found to be more efficient. 相似文献
Ambient air pollution, particularly in the urban environment of developing countries, has turned out to be a major health risk factor. We explore the compounded impact of age sensitivity, exposure, poverty, co-morbidity, etc., along with composite air pollution in determining morbidity and health burden of people in Lucknow, India. This cross-sectional study is confined to analyse respiratory health status across different socio-economic and geographic locations using n = 140 in-depth questionnaire method. We used mean daily ambient air pollution data of PM10, PM2.5, SO2, and NO2 for the 2008–2018 period. We used the ecological model framework to assess the risk at different hierarchical levels and compounded severity on a spatial scale. We also used Logistic regression model with log odds and odds ratio to analyze the association of risks outcomes with composite air pollution scores calculated using the principal component analysis method. There is a strong association of location-specific respiratory disease prevalence with an overall 32 percent prevalence. The prevalence of ecological model 1 (individual domain) is 4.3 percent, while ecological model 2 (community domain) has the highest prevalence at 32.4 percent. The logistic regression model shows that respiratory disease load is positively associated with age sensitivity (P < .001) and composite pollution level (P < .001). For another model with suffocation as the outcome variable, composite pollution level (P < .001) and exposure (P < .001) are positively associated. Optimum interventions are required at Ecological models 1, 2, and 3 levels for better respiratory health outcomes.
Air-borne passive microwave remote sensors measure soil moisture at the footprint scale, a scale of several hundred square meters or kilometers that encompasses different characteristic combinations of soil, topography, vegetation, and climate. Studies of within-footprint variability of soil moisture are needed to determine the factors governing hydrologic processes and their relative importance, as well as to test the efficacy of remote sensors. Gridded ground-based impedance probe water content data and aircraft-mounted Electronically Scanned Thinned Array Radiometer (ESTAR) pixel-average soil moisture data were used to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution and time-stable characteristics of soil moisture in three selected (LW03, LW13, LW21) footprints from the Southern Great Plains 1997 (SGP97) Hydrology Experiment. Better time-stable features were observed within a footprint containing sandy loam soil than within two pixels containing silty loam soil. Additionally, flat topography with split wheat/grass land cover produced the largest spatio-temporal variability and the least time stability in soil moisture patterns. A comparison of ground-based and remote sensing data showed that ESTAR footprint-average soil moisture was well calibrated for the LW03 pixel with sandy loam soil, rolling topography, and pasture land cover, but improved calibration is warranted for the LW13 (silty loam soil, rolling topography, pasture land) and LW21 (silty loam soil, flat topography, split vegetation of wheat and grass land with tillage practice) pixels. Footprint-scale variability and associated nonlinear soil moisture dynamics may prove to be critical in the regional-scale hydroclimatic models. 相似文献
In the estimation of momentum fluxes over land surfaces by the bulk aerodynamic method, no unique value of the drag coefficient
(CD) is found in the literature. The drag coefficient is generally estimated from special observations at different parts of
the world. In this study an attempt is made to estimate drag coefficient over the western desert sector of India using data
sets of Monsoon Trough Boundary Layer Experiment (MONTBLEX) during the summer monsoon season of 1990. For this purpose, the
fast and slow response data sets obtained simultaneously from a 30 m high micro-meteorological tower at Jodhpur are used.
All the observations used in this study are confined to a wind speed regime of 2.5–9.0 ms−1.
A comparison of momentum fluxes computed by eddy correlation (direct estimation) with profile and bulk aerodynamic (CD = 3.9 × 10−3, Garratt, 1977) methods revealed that though the nature of variation of the fluxes by all these methods is almost similar,
both the indirect methods give an under-estimated value of the fluxes. The drag coefficient is estimated as a function of
wind speed and surface stability by a multiple regression approach. An average value of the estimated drag coefficient is
found to be of the order of 5.43 × 10−3. The estimated value ofCD is validated with a set of independent observations and found to be quite satisfactory. The recomputed momentum fluxes by
bulk aerodynamic method using the estimated drag coefficient are in close agreement with the directly estimated fluxes. 相似文献
In this paper we have taken an attempt to study the feasibility of scale invariant theory (Wesson, 1981a,b) in Bianchi type
VIII and IX space-times with a time dependent gauge function (Dirac Gauge i.e. βα
)and a matter field in the form of a perfect fluid. It is found that Bianchi type VIII (δ=1) space-time is feasible in this
theory whereas Bianchi type IX (δ=-1) space-time is not feasible. In this feasible case a radiating model is constructed and
its physical behaviour is discussed.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
An attempt has been made to solve the field equations with perfect fluid in an inhomogeneous space-time governed by the metric
in both Einstein and Barber's theories of gravitation. It is shown here that in both the theories the field equations are
reducible to a Laplace equation and the perfect fluid distribution does not survive. Moreover all the solutions represent
plane gravitational wave and the vacuum models in both the theories can be constructed by an arbitrary harmonic function iny and z coordinates.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献