Statistical forecast of the marine surge     

Quintana  Gonzalo Iñaki  Tandeo  Pierre  Drumetz  Lucas  Leballeur  Laurent  Pavec  Marc 《Natural Hazards》2021,108(3):2905-2917

Natural Hazards - This paper studies different machine learning methods for solving the regression problem of estimating the marine surge value given meteorological data. The marine surge is...  相似文献   

An adaptation index to high summer heat associated with adverse health impacts in deprived neighborhoods     

Diane Bélanger  Belkacem Abdous  Pierre Gosselin  Pierre Valois 《Climatic change》2015,132(2):279-293

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HP–UHP metamorphism as an indicator of slab dip variations in the Alpine arc     

Nicolas Carry  Fredéric Gueydan  Didier Marquer  Jean Pierre Brun 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2011,100(5):1087-1094

HP/UHP and LT metamorphic units that commonly occur in the inner parts of mountain belts result from the subduction of continental and oceanic material, most often exhumed prior to continental collision. The prograde pressure–temperature history of HP–UHP rocks strongly depends on the convergence rate and on the subduction zone geometry. The maximum pressure recorded provides a proxy for the depth of shearing off and stacking of HP metamorphic nappes. A 2-D thermal model of continental subduction at lithospheric scale is used to compute the length and pressure peak of detached HP metamorphic units as a function of the slab dip angle and the convergence rate. Model results are applied to the metamorphic nappe pile of the inner Alps. A mean convergence rate of 1 cm/year during the subduction of the Briançonnais terrane is indicated by the paleogeographic reconstructions between 46 and 38 Ma. On this basis, the available petrological data and lengths of metamorphic units are used to compute the variations of the slab dip angle. The slab dip angle is shown to increase, from the northeast to the southwest, along the Alpine arc with estimated values of 20° for Suretta, 30–45° for Monte Rosa and Gran Paradiso, and 60° for Dora Maira. From Eocene to Oligocene times, the increase in slab dip angle is controlled by changes of buoyancy, due to the spatial configuration of the Valaisan trough and the incoming of crustal material within the subduction zone.  相似文献   

First detailed description of Hispanomys decedens (Rodentia) from the Middle Miocene of La Grive-Saint Alban (France)     

Raquel L��pez-Anto?anzas  Pierre Mein 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2011,104(2):345-353

The material of Hispanomys decedens (Rodentia, Cricetodontinae) from La Grive-Saint Alban (France) is described in detail for the first time. H. decedens, which is one of the oldest species of the genus, shows the primitive character states that are typical of the Aragonian congeneric species, such as the mesolophs and labial cingula surrounding the upper molar valleys. The detailed examination of the teeth of H. decedens shows that this taxon is a good candidate ancestor for H. aragonensis.  相似文献   

Forecasting ocean wave energy: The ECMWF wave model and time series methods     

Gordon Reikard  Pierre Pinson  Jean-Raymond Bidlot 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(10):1089-1099

Recently, the technology has been developed to make wave farms commercially viable. Since electricity is perishable, utilities will be interested in forecasting ocean wave energy. The horizons involved in short-term management of power grids range from as little as a few hours to as long as several days. In selecting a method, the forecaster has a choice between physics-based models and statistical techniques. A further idea is to combine both types of models. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of a well-known physics-based model, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Wave Model, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regressions and neural networks. Thirteen data sets at locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico are tested. The quantities to be predicted are the significant wave height, the wave period, and the wave energy flux. In the initial tests, the ECMWF model and the statistical models are compared directly. The statistical models do better at short horizons, producing more accurate forecasts in the 1-5 h range. The ECMWF model is superior at longer horizons. The convergence point, at which the two methods achieve comparable degrees of accuracy, is in the area of 6 h. By implication, the physics-based model captures the underlying signals at lower frequencies, while the statistical models capture relationships over shorter intervals. Further tests are run in which the forecasts from the ECMWF model are used as inputs in regressions and neural networks. The combined models yield more accurate forecasts than either one individually.  相似文献   

Efficiency of a two-step upscaling method for permeability evaluation at Darcy and pore scales     

Pierre Horgue  Romain Guibert  Hervé Gross  Patrice Creux  Gérald Debenest 《Computational Geosciences》2015,19(6):1159-1169

This work presents a new subdivision method to upscale absolute permeability fields. This process, called two-step method, consists in (i) solving micro-scale equations on subdomains obtained from the full domain regular decomposition and (ii) solve a second upscaling with Darcy’s law on the permeability fields obtained in the first step. The micro-scale equations used depend on the case studied. The two-step upscaling process is validated on randomly generated Darcy-scale permeability fields by measuring the numerical error induced by upscaling. The method is then applied to real domains obtained from sandstone micro-tomographic images. The method specificities due to pore-space structure are discussed. The main advantage of the two-step upscaling method resides in the drastic reduction of computational costs (CPU time and memory usage) while maintaining a numerical error similar to that of other upscaling procedures. This new upscaling method may improve permeability predictions by the use of finer meshes or larger sample volumes.  相似文献   

Deciphering neotectonics from river profile analysis in the karst Jura Mountains (northern Alpine foreland)     

Mickael Rabin  Christian Sue  Pierre G. Valla  Jean-Daniel Champagnac  Nicolas Carry  Vincent Bichet  Urs Eichenberger  Jacques Mudry 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2015,108(2-3):401-424

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Evolution of a Late Oxfordian: early Kimmeridgian carbonate platform,French Jura Mountains     

Nicolas Olivier  Elsa Cariou  Pierre Hantzpergue 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2015,108(2-3):273-288

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Sampling strategy and climatic implications of tree-ring stable isotopes on the southeast Tibetan Plateau     

Chunming Shi  Valérie Masson-Delmotte  Camille Risi  Thomas Eglin  Michel Stievenard  Monique Pierre  Xiaochun Wang  Jing Gao  François-Marie Bréon  Qi-Bin Zhang  Valérie Daux 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2011,301(1-2):307-316

We explore the potential of tree-ring cellulose δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C records for reconstructing climate variability in the southeast Tibetan Plateau. Our sampling strategy was designed to investigate intra and inter-tree variability, and the effects of the age of tree on δ¹⁸O variation. We show that intra-tree δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O variability is negligible, and inter-tree coherence is sufficient to build robust tree-ring δ¹⁸O or δ¹³C chronologies based on only four trees. There is no evidence of an age effect regarding δ¹⁸O, in contrast with tree-ring width. In our warm and moist sampling site, young tree δ¹³C is not clearly correlated with monthly mean meteorological data. Tree-ring δ¹⁸O appears significantly anti-correlated with summer precipitation amount, regional cloud cover, and relative humidity. Simulations conducted with the ORCHIDEE land surface model confirm the observed contribution of relative humidity to tree cellulose δ¹⁸O, and explain the weak correlation of δ¹³C with climate by the non-linear integration linked with photosynthesis. Altogether, the tree-ring cellulose δ¹⁸O is shown to be a promising proxy to reconstruct regional summer moisture variability prior to the instrumental period.  相似文献   

A note of caution when interpreting parameters of the distribution of excesses     

Pierre Ribereau  Philippe NaveauArmelle Guillou 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(10):1215-1221

In climatology and hydrology, univariate Extreme Value Theory has become a powerful tool to model the distribution of extreme events. The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is routinely applied to model excesses in space or time by letting the two GPD parameters depend on appropriate covariates. Two possible pitfalls of this strategy are the modeling and the interpretation of the scale and shape GPD parameters estimates which are often and incorrectly viewed as independent variables. In this note we first recall a statistical technique that makes the GPD estimates less correlated within a Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation approach. In a second step we propose novel reparametrizations for two method-of-moments particularly popular in hydrology: the Probability Weighted Moment (PWM) method and its generalized version (GPWM). Finally these three inference methods (ML, PWM and GPWM) are compared and discussed with respect to the issue of correlations.  相似文献