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河南省春季气候变化及其对小麦产量构成要素的影响 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
目前有关气候变化及其对农作物产量影响的研究较多,而对产量构成要素的影响研究相对较少。本文利用自然正交函数(EOF)分解、相关分析、趋势倾向率分析等方法对河南省近30多年的气候和近20多年的小麦产量构成三要素———穗数、粒数、粒重进行了时空变化特征分析,在此基础上分析了春季气候变化对小麦产量及其构成要素的影响。结果表明:全省春季平均气温、降水量、日照时数变化具有比较好的空间一致性,平均气温呈比较明显的上升趋势,降水呈不太明显的下降趋势,日照呈一定的下降趋势;小麦粒重和产量变化具有较好的空间一致性,而穗数、粒数则具有反位相空间变化特征,穗数、粒重及产量均呈明显的上升趋势,粒数呈抛物线变化趋势,其中1991年后呈明显上升趋势;平均气温的升温变化趋势有利于小麦粒重、穗数和最终产量的提高,但不利于粒数增加;降水变化趋势不利于粒重提高,对其他产量构成要素影响不明显;日照的变化对产量及各构成要素影响不明显。 相似文献
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Xia Yao Yan ZhuYongChao Tian Wei FengWeiXing Cao 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2010
Hyperspectral sensing can provide an effective means for fast and non-destructive estimation of leaf nitrogen (N) status in crop plants. The objectives of this study were to design a new method to extract hyperspectral spectrum information, to explore sensitive spectral bands, suitable bandwidth and best vegetation indices based on precise analysis of ground-based hyperspectral information, and to develop regression models for estimating leaf N accumulation per unit soil area (LNA, g N m−2) in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Three field experiments were conducted with different N rates and cultivar types in three consecutive growing seasons, and time-course measurements were taken on canopy hyperspectral reflectance and LNA under the various treatments. Then, normalized difference spectral indices (NDSI) and ratio spectral indices (RSI) based on the original spectrum and the first derivative spectrum were constructed within the range of 350–2500 nm, and their relationships with LNA were quantified. The results showed that both LNA and canopy hyperspectral reflectance in wheat changed with varied N rates, with consistent patterns across different cultivars and seasons. The sensitive spectral bands for LNA existed mainly within visible and near infrared regions. The best spectral indices for estimating LNA in wheat were found to be NDSI (R860, R720), RSI (R990, R720), NDSI (FD736, FD526) and RSI (FD725, FD516), and the regression models based on the above four spectral indices were formulated as Y = 26.34x1.887, Y = 5.095x − 6.040, Y = 0.609 e3.008x and Y = 0.388x1.260, respectively, with R2 greater than 0.81. Furthermore, expanding the bandwidth of NDSI (R860, R720) and RSI (R990, R720) from 1 nm to 100 nm at 1 nm interval produced the LNA monitoring models with similar performance within about 33 nm and 23 nm bandwidth, respectively, over which the statistical parameters of the models became less stable. From testing of the derived equations, the model for LNA estimation on NDSI (R860, R720), RSI (R990, R720), NDSI (FD736, FD526) and RSI (FD725, FD516) gave R2 over 0.79 with more satisfactory performance than previously reported models and physical models in wheat. It can be concluded that the present hyperspectral parameters of NDSI (R860, R720), RSI (R990, R720), NDSI (FD736, FD526) and RSI (FD725, FD516) can be reliably used for estimating LNA in winter wheat. 相似文献
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The aim of this study is to estimate the capabilities of forecasting the yield of wheat using an artificial neural network combined with multi-temporal satellite data acquired at high spatial resolution throughout the agricultural season in the optical and/or microwave domains. Reflectance (acquired by Formosat-2, and Spot 4–5 in the green, red, and near infrared wavelength) and multi-configuration backscattering coefficients (acquired by TerraSAR-X and Radarsat-2 in the X- and C-bands, at co- (abbreviated HH and VV) and cross-polarization states (abbreviated HV and VH)) constitute the input variable of the artificial neural networks, which are trained and validated on the successively acquired images, providing yield forecast in near real-time conditions. The study is based on data collected over 32 fields of wheat distributed over a study area located in southwestern France, near Toulouse. Among the tested sensor configurations, several satellite data appear useful for the yield forecasting throughout the agricultural season (showing coefficient of determination (R2) larger than 0.60 and a root mean square error (RMSE) lower than 9.1 quintals by hectare (q ha−1)): CVH, CHV, or the combined used of XHH and CHH, CHH and CHV, or green reflectance and CHH. Nevertheless, the best accurate forecast (R2 = 0.76 and RMSE = 7.0 q ha−1) is obtained longtime before the harvest (on day 98, during the elongation of stems) using the combination of co- and cross-polarized backscattering coefficients acquired in the C-band (CVV and CVH). These results highlight the high interest of using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data instead of optical ones to early forecast the yield before the harvest of wheat. 相似文献
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基于野外实测数据，分晴日、阴日及不区分阴晴3种情况，研究了湿润与较干冬小麦田午时冠层温度、气温和地温间的定量关系。结果表明:湿润麦田晴日使用气温预测冠温效果最好，基于最终模型估算冠温的平均误差仅1.03℃，标准差为1.26℃。较干麦田晴日与阴日用地温估算冠温效果最佳，基于最终模型估算冠温的平均误差分别为1.64，1.54 ℃；其估算冠温的标准分别为2.05，1.89℃。用本文统计建模法预测结果的误差低于目前用NOAA影像反演冠温时2~3℃的均方根误差。研究结果也说明使用气温和地温预测麦田冠温是切实可行的。这就为冠温数据的获取提供了廉价有效的新方法；同时也使利用遥感影像与地面气象站常规观测资料相结合的方法，在较大的区域范围内进行冬小麦需水预测成为可能。 相似文献
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用多目标层次加权法评价了 8个小麦品种对禾谷缢管蚜的综合抗性 ,结果表明 ,8个小麦品种的抗蚜性强弱依次为 W6 (4 0 ) 2、小偃六号、NWAU34- 9、陕 16 7、陕 80 0 7、85(6 7) 2 4、81(2 8) 2 8、85(6 7) 15。抗性因素的分析表明 ,品种感蚜值与游离氨基酸总量呈负相关 ,在 17种游离氨基酸中 ,感蚜值与赖按酸和精氨酸的含量显著负相关 ,而与总糖含量呈正相关 相似文献
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In the period 1999–2009 ten-day SPOT-VEGETATION products of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) at 1 km spatial resolution were used in order to estimate and forecast the wheat yield over Europe. The products were used together with official wheat yield statistics to fine-tune a statistical model for each NUTS2 region, based on the Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) method. This method has been chosen to construct the model in the presence of many correlated predictor variables (10-day values of remote sensing indicators) and a limited number of wheat yield observations. The model was run in two different modalities: the “monitoring mode”, which allows for an overall yield assessment at the end of the growing season, and the “forecasting mode”, which provides early and timely yield estimates when the growing season is on-going. Performances of yield estimation at the regional and national level were evaluated using a cross-validation technique against yield statistics and the estimations were compared with those of a reference crop growth model. Models based on either NDVI or FAPAR normalized indicators achieved similar results with a minimal advantage of the model based on the FAPAR product. Best modelling results were obtained for the countries in Central Europe (Poland, North-Eastern Germany) and also Great Britain. By contrast, poor model performances characterize countries as follows: Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Portugal, Romania and Hungary. Country level yield estimates using the PLSR model in the monitoring mode, and those of a reference crop growth model that do not make use of remote sensing information showed comparable accuracies. The largest estimation errors were observed in Portugal, Spain and Finland for both approaches. This convergence may indicate poor reliability of the official yield statistics in these countries. 相似文献
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Ukraine is one of the most developed agriculture countries and one of the biggest crop producers in the world. Timely and accurate crop yield forecasts for Ukraine at regional level become a key element in providing support to policy makers in food security. In this paper, feasibility and relative efficiency of using moderate resolution satellite data to winter wheat forecasting in Ukraine at oblast level is assessed. Oblast is a sub-national administrative unit that corresponds to the NUTS2 level of the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) of the European Union. NDVI values were derived from the MODIS sensor at the 250 m spatial resolution. For each oblast NDVI values were averaged for a cropland map (Rainfed croplands class) derived from the ESA GlobCover map, and were used as predictors in the regression models. Using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure, the best time for making reliable yield forecasts in terms of root mean square error was identified. For most oblasts, NDVI values taken in April–May provided the minimum RMSE value when comparing to the official statistics, thus enabling forecasts 2–3 months prior to harvest. The NDVI-based approach was compared to the following approaches: empirical model based on meteorological observations (with forecasts in April–May that provide minimum RMSE value) and WOFOST crop growth simulation model implemented in the CGMS system (with forecasts in June that provide minimum RMSE value). All three approaches were run to produce winter wheat yield forecasts for independent datasets for 2010 and 2011, i.e. on data that were not used within model calibration process. The most accurate predictions for 2010 were achieved using the CGMS system with the RMSE value of 0.3 t ha−1 in June and 0.4 t ha−1 in April, while performance of three approaches for 2011 was almost the same (0.5–0.6 t ha−1 in April). Both NDVI-based approach and CGMS system overestimated winter wheat yield comparing to official statistics in 2010, and underestimated it in 2011. Therefore, we can conclude that performance of empirical NDVI-based regression model was similar to meteorological and CGMS models when producing winter wheat yield forecasts at oblast level in Ukraine 2–3 months prior to harvest, while providing minimum requirements to input datasets. 相似文献
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