基于小波变换与神经网络的石羊河流域夏季地温预测模型研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

贾东于  李开明  聂晓英  袁春霞  李清峰  高福元 《冰川冻土》2020,42(2):412-422

地温变化在气候反馈效应中起着重要作用， 理解地温及其与影响因素之间的时空关系对预测全球温度变化至关重要。利用1998 - 2017年石羊河流域的逐日常规气象观测资料， 采用小波分析结合BP（Back Propagation）神经网络构建了石羊河流域夏季地温预报模型， 结果表明： 日平均地温预测效果在不同站点均为最佳， 其中预测值和观测值的相关系数均大于0.87， 3 ℃以内的预测概率均大于84%。其中， 民勤地区地温预测效果最好， 预测值和观测值的相关系数达到0.91， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到86%。日最高地温的预测值与观测值的相关系数高于0.8， 但误差平方和、 标准差较大。永昌地区日最高地温的模拟效果最好， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到83%。日最低地温的预测与观测值的平均相关系数高于0.66， 3 ℃以内的预报概率高于83%， 但预测值略低。其中， 武威地区日最低地温的预测效果最好， 预测值与观测值的相关系数为0.72， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到94%。研究成果可为有效弥补干旱、 半干旱区地温观测资料缺失和探讨其与局地气候的关系提供一些参考。  相似文献   

基于树轮宽度重建川西南137年秋冬季平均气温变化     

谢成晟  李景吉  高苑苑  石松林  彭培好  杨兴  冯玮娜 《第四纪研究》2020,(1):252-263

在全球气候变暖背景下,青藏高原东南缘的川滇横断山高海拔地区秋冬季温度变化已经成为区域气候变化研究热点。为了更好地了解长时间尺度下秋冬季平均气温变化对树木生长的影响,本文运用泸沽湖地区丽江云杉(Picea likiangensis)树轮宽度资料,建立了标准年表。并基于气温与树轮宽度指数的关系,重建了过去137年来川西南地区的秋冬季平均气温波动历史。重建序列存在2个暖期(1911~1927 A.D.,1992~2015 A.D.)、1个冷期(1939~1991 A.D.)。与其他树轮序列、沉积记录及历史记录的比较和空间相关分析,显示重建结果可靠,且具有区域代表性。集合经验模态(EEMD)分解得到2 a、19 a和54 a的周期控制序列冷暖波动。厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO),太阳黑子,太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)和北大西洋涛动(NAO)可能是以上周期的驱动因子.  相似文献   

西藏雄村斑岩型铜(金)矿床Ⅰ、Ⅱ号矿体热液黑云母特征及地质意义     

肖鸿天  谢富伟  郎兴海  冉凤琴 《岩石矿物学杂志》2020,39(4):469-480

雄村铜(金)矿区位于西藏冈底斯成矿带中段南缘,由Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ号矿体和多个矿化体组成。本文以Ⅰ、Ⅱ号矿体钾硅酸盐化蚀变带内的热液黑云母为研究对象,采用光薄片镜下鉴定、电子探针等分析方法,系统研究了热液黑云母的产状和成分特征。结果显示,雄村矿区Ⅰ号矿体黑云母类型主要为金云母和镁质黑云母;Ⅱ号矿体黑云母类型为镁质黑云母。两个矿体黑云母都具有低Ti(TiO_2 3%)、高Al(Al_2O_315%)的特点,且具有较高的MgO含量,Mg/Fe0.5,K/Na10,显示了与矿化良好的相关性。Ⅰ号矿体热液黑云母平均结晶温度470℃,氧逸度位于镍-氧化镍缓冲剂与磁铁矿-钛铁矿缓冲剂之间(NNO—HM);Ⅱ号矿体热液黑云母平均结晶温度234℃,氧逸度位于镍-氧化镍缓冲剂与铁橄榄石-石英-磁铁矿缓冲剂之间(NNO—FQM),说明Ⅰ号矿体形成于较高温、高氧逸度的热液系统,Ⅱ号矿体形成于相对较低温、低氧逸度的热液系统。此外,Ⅰ号矿体热液黑云母Ⅳ(F)值介于0.61～2.72之间,平均值1.26,Ⅳ(Cl)值介于-5.49～-4.53之间,平均值-5.03,Ⅳ(F/Cl)值介于5.63～7.89之间,平均值6.29;Ⅱ号矿体热液黑云母Ⅳ(F)值介于1.83～3.32之间,平均值2.66,Ⅳ(Cl)值介于-5.64～-4.89之间,平均值-5.31,Ⅳ(F/Cl)值介于7.14～8.68之间,平均值7.97,说明Ⅰ、Ⅱ号矿体都形成于富Cl的热液系统,且Ⅱ号矿体热液较Ⅰ号矿体更富Cl,贫F。富Cl流体易萃取流体中的Cu和Au等金属元素并以Cl的络合物形式运移,在沿构造裂隙向上运移的过程中,物理化学条件发生改变,使得流体中金属元素络合物溶解度降低,促使硫化物沉淀成矿。  相似文献   

米氏凯伦藻细胞表面膜蛋白质组及其对温度变化的响应研究     

王坤  王沛  张浩  张树峰  王大志 《海洋与湖沼》2019,50(3):652-663

米氏凯伦藻(Karenia mikimotoi)近年在我国福建、浙江和广东沿海经常形成赤潮,其赤潮不仅影响到海洋生态系统的稳定,也严重威胁到水产养殖以及人类生命健康安全。本论文以米氏凯伦藻为研究对象,建立了米氏凯伦藻细胞表面膜蛋白质荧光标记技术和细胞膜蛋白质提取方法,运用荧光差异凝胶电泳技术(2-DDIGE)对膜蛋白质进行了分析,并研究了米氏凯伦藻的膜蛋白质组及其对环境温度变动的响应。实验共鉴定到44个细胞表面膜蛋白,其中有效注释27个,主要为转运蛋白、HSP70蛋白家族和捕光蛋白等。米氏凯伦藻在20°C条件下的细胞生长和光合作用要明显好于16°C和12°C,但16°C和12°C条件下的差别不大,表明低温限制了米氏凯伦藻的生长。当米氏凯伦藻从12°C快速转移至16°C和20°C时,藻细胞密度和光合作用效率短时间迅速降低,但细胞很快即适应温度变化。细胞膜上的转运蛋白和光合作用蛋白在其适应温度变化中起着重要作用。  相似文献   

驯化水温及温升速率对三门湾三种虾蟹类热耐受性的影响   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

田洪林  曹亮  刘金虎  窦硕增 《海洋科学》2018,42(4):43-52

作者采用动态实验法与静态实验法相结合的方法,研究了三门湾脊尾白虾(Exopalaemon carinicauda)、口虾蛄(Oratosquilla oratoria)和日本(Charybdis japonica)在不同季节的基础水温即驯化水温(8~29℃)和温升速率(0.5~15.0℃/h)下的热耐受能力。结果表明,驯化水温和温升速率对各实验动物的热耐受性均有显著影响。实验动物的热耐受性与驯化水温总体上呈显著正相关,而温升速率对热耐受性的影响具有物种特异性,并受驯化水温制约;在不同驯化水温下,各实验动物的热耐受性随温升速率增大呈不同变化趋势。各实验动物的24 h高起始致死温度受驯化水温的影响显著,随着驯化水温从8℃升高到29℃,脊尾白虾、日本和口虾蛄的24hUILT50分别从24.2、34.6、24.9℃显著增大到35.3、37.4和34.4℃。结合3种实验动物的最大临界温度分析,它们的热耐受能力依次为:日本脊尾白虾口虾蛄。研究结果可为探究三门湾水域潜在的热污染状况及其生态环境效应提供科学依据。  相似文献   

Terrestrial heat flow and lithospheric thermal structure in the Chagan Depression of the Yingen-Ejinaqi Basin,north central China     

Yinhui Zuo  Shu Jiang  Shihu Wu  Wei Xu  Jiong Zhang  Renpeng Feng  Meihua Yang  Yongshui Zhou  M. Santosh 《Basin Research》2020,32(6):1328-1346

The Chagan Depression in the Yingen-Ejinaqi Basin, located at the intersection of the Paleo-Asian Ocean and the Tethys Ocean domains is an important region to gain insights on terrestrial heat flow, lithospheric thermal structure and deep geodynamic processes. Here, we compute terrestrial heat flow values in the Chagan Depression using a large set of system steady-state temperature data from four representative wells and rock thermal conductivity. We also estimate the “thermal” lithospheric thickness, mantle heat flow, ratio of mantle heat flow to surface heat flow and Moho temperature to evaluate the regional tectonic framework and deep dynamics. The results show that the heat flow in the Chagan Depression ranges from 66.5 to 69.8 mW/m², with an average value of 68.3 ± 1.2 mW/m². The Chagan Depression is characterized by a thin “thermal” lithosphere, high mantle heat flow, and high Moho temperature, corresponding to the lithospheric thermal structure of “cold mantle and hot crust” type. We correlate the formation of the Yingen-Ejinaqi Basin to the Early Cretaceous and Cenozoic subduction of the western Pacific Plate and the Cenozoic multiple extrusions. Our results provide new insights into the thermal structure and dynamics of the lithospheric evolution in central China.  相似文献   

Local level rainfall and temperature variability in drought-prone districts of rural Sidama,central rift valley region of Ethiopia     

Tafesse Matewos  Tewodros Tefera 《自然地理学》2020,41(1):36-53

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to examine local level spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature variability in drought-prone districts of rural Sidama, Central Rift Valley region of Ethiopia. The study used 129 gridded monthly rainfall and temperature data of 32 years (1983–2014). The gridded rainfall and temperature records were encoded into GIS software and evaluated through different statistical and geospatial techniques. Mann-Kendal rank test and F distribution tests were used to test temporal and spatial statistical significance, respectively, of the data. The analysis revealed that Belg and Kiremt are the main rainfall seasons, constituting 81% of the annual rainfall. Although annual, Kiremt, and Belg rainfall amounts appear to have decreased over time, the decreasing trend is statistically significant only for Belg rainfall records. On the other hand, rainfall standard anomaly results indicated seven droughts of different magnitudes: one extreme, two severe, and four moderate. The study also revealed increasing temperature trends over the years under consideration that are statistically significant. The findings of this study on rainfall contradict other findings obtained around the study area. Thus, climate change adaptations need to focus on location-specific climate data analysis so that the intended adaptive interventions can be successful.  相似文献   

Analysis of Spatio-temporal Land Surface Temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Changes in the Andassa Watershed,Blue Nile Basin,Ethiopia     

Melkamu Meseret Alemu 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(1):77-85

Analysis of the nexus between vegetation dynamics and climatic parameters like surface temperature is essential in environmental and ecological studies and for monitoring of the natural resources. This study explored the spatio-temporal distribution of land surface temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the relationship between them in the Andassa watershed from 1986 to 2016 periods using Landsat data. Monthly average air temperature data of three meteorological sites were used for validating the results. The findings of the study showed that the LST of the Andassa watershed has increased during the study periods. Overall, average LST has been rising with an increasing rate of 0.081°C per year. Other results of this study also showed that there has been a dynamic change in vegetation cover of the watershed in all seasons. There was also a negative correlation between LST and NDVI in all the studied years. From this study we can understand that there has been degradation of vegetation and intensification of LST from 1986 to 2016.  相似文献   

Low‐temperature thermochronological database of bedrock in the Japanese Islands     

Shigeru Sueoka  Takahiro Tagami 《Island Arc》2019,28(4)

To provide better access to thermochronological data and understand the long‐term denudation history of the Japanese Islands, we compiled a low‐temperature thermochronological dataset of fission‐track (FT) and (U–Th–Sm)/He (He) ages for apatite and zircon in bedrocks. These thermochronometric ages are compiled from 90 literature sources and 1,096 localities, and include 418 apatite FT ages, 851 zircon FT ages, 42 apatite He ages, and 30 zircon He ages. Many FT ages have been reported previously; however, the number of He ages is limited in the Japanese Islands. The compiled data are spatially biased; for instance, more data are reported for the Chubu and Kinki districts and the Pacific coast of the Shikoku Island, whereas less data were available for the Tohoku and Chugoku districts. For better understanding arc‐scale uplift‐denudation history, further thermochronological research in the lesser‐studied regions and more He thermochronometric measurements are desired. This compilation will be updated and provided on the website of the Fission‐Track Research Group in Japan ( http://ftrgj.org/index.html ).  相似文献   

整点气温缺测的插补方法研究及其初步应用     

闫丽莉  温少妍  高文晶  刘传军  杨甜 《震灾防御技术》2019,14(2):446-455

长期连续完整的历史气温资料是震前气温异常判别研究的重要数据基础。本文考虑了参考站与缺测站之间的距离，建立改进的线性回归模型。利用该模型插补缺测和错误的气温整点值数据，在一定程度上解决了长期连续观测数据缺测的情况。通过对收集的唐山观测站气温整点值数据进行插补，并应用插补完整的数据分析研究了2012年5月28日唐山4.8级地震前兆异常。结果表明:①插补值与其前后观测值衔接吻合，插补后完整连续数据符合夏高冬低的年变规律；②插补误差在±0.5℃范围内的比例为60.2%，在±0.8℃范围内的比例为80.3%，其误差绝对值大于1.0℃的比例为9.6%，平均绝对误差为0.84℃，插补值与观测值的相关系数大部分在0.9以上；③从3月27日起出现增温异常，特别是震前2天增温幅度约8℃。  相似文献