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11.
Firstly, typical features of a supercell, which occurred in Guangzhou on August 11, 2004, are discussed by using the new generation weather radar data. V-notch, finger-echo, weak echo region, overhang and echo-wall are observed from reflectivity products. A vertical cross section of the radial velocity is made along the direction of the low-level inflow and across the maximum reflectivity core, which displays a part of strong updraft and downdraft. Secondly, a 3-D convective storm model is used to simulate the supercell. The maximum reflectivity and the core thickness of the simulated radar echo are 75 dBz and 14km, respectively. These values are more than the counterparts that are detected by radar. The reason is that attenuation is not calculated in the model. The wind field structure is also given when the storm is the strongest. Divergence, caused by thunderstorm outflow, is in the low level. In the middle and high level, convergence is dominant, but the plume is not simulated at the top. Finally, the evolution of the simulated vertical motion is documented. The interaction between the environmental wind and the updraft, which is formed by the convergence on the ground at the beginning, makes the storm stronger. Then, downdraft occurs and grows. When it becomes dominant, the supercell collapses. 相似文献
12.
利用1997—2015年吉林省春夏期(4—7月)逐日气象站地面观测资料,以气温、气压、相对湿度、水汽压、风速为协变量,建立各站点逐日降水量的基于自组织映射神经网络(Self-Organizing Maps,SOM)的统计预测模型;分析吉林省春夏期的主要天气模态,研究逐日降水和天气模态之间的关系,并基于此关系提出逐日降水量的蒙特卡罗模拟方法。结果表明:SOM对天气模态的分型质量较好,邻近天气模态的累积概率分布较相似,距离较远的天气模态累计概率分布差异较大。各天气模态下无降水的概率与日降水量区间宽度的相关系数为-0. 94,显著性水平小于0. 01。基于降水量累积概率分布,20种天气模态被划分成4类,并与降水易发程度和逐日降水量完全对应。在此基础上,对吉林省24个站点逐日降水量进行蒙特卡罗模拟,并进行预测性能分析。平均绝对误差(Mean Absolute Error,MAE)和均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error,RM SE)的中位数分别为3. 12 mm和6. 13 mm,SBrier和Ssig分别为0. 06和0. 51,站点的逐日降水量预测性能整体较好。MAE和RMSE分布呈现东南大西北小,去除降水自然变异差异的影响,所有站点的误差都较小; SBrier和Ssig没有明显的空间分布特征。 相似文献
13.
利用中尺度非静力数值模式MM5,结合降水实况、红外卫星云图和雷达回波资料,对2007年8月8-11日发生在雷州半岛的致洪特大暴雨的形成机理进行了模拟分析和研究,包括雨量、动力热力特征、三维结构以及发展变化。结果表明,模拟雨带与实况位置吻合,中心强度与实况基本一致,强降水中心出现的时间略偏迟。此次强降水是由于受“帕布”减弱后的外围环流及其西南伸展的辐合槽带的天气形势影响,具有中尺度对流系统的特征。强降水落区与涡度场、散度场和垂直速度场有着较好的对应关系,强降水发生落区表现为明显的螺旋结构。在低层为正涡度区和负散度区,到中层后转为负涡度区和正散度区,强降水区域内低层辐合高层辐散,强烈的上升运动是导致强降水的主要原因． 相似文献
14.
自然保护区农气及生态监测资料数据库设计 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
针对自然保护区农业气象与生态环境监测资料管理状况及业务、科研需求，以Microsoft Access 2000数据库为基础，建立了由观测资料、参数资料和产品资料组成的资料库。采用可视化快速开发软件Visual Basic6．0作为开发工具，实现了资料的入库、编辑、查询、审核、统计、分析、报文编发、报表生成以及资料传输的自动化。 相似文献
15.
利用雷州半岛2007年7、8月常规地面气象观测资料和闪电定位资料,分析了闪电活动与24 h降水量及雨强的关系,结果表明:雷州半岛盛夏地闪频数的最大值中心在其东侧海面上,地闪高发带沿海岸线呈南北向分布;地闪频次存在明显的日变化特征,13:00～18:00为闪电高发时段;无闪电时,有41.3%的降水事件24 h降水量≤1 mm,61.5%的降水事件雨强≤1 mm·h-1;有闪电时相应的事件概率分别为25.9%和37.7%;24 h降水量>30 mm的事件大多发生在有闪电的情况下,无闪电时极少发生;雨强概率分布的日变化特征不明显;有闪电活动时,雨强均值变化幅度加大. 相似文献
16.
Based on the number of foggy days in Nanjing in December from 1980 to 2011, we analyzed the surface temperature and atmospheric circulation characteristics of foggy years and less-foggy years. Positive anomalies of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) were found to weaken the East Asian trough, which is not conducive to the southward migration of cold air. Simultaneously, this atmospheric condition favors stability as a result of a high-pressure anomaly from the middle Yangtze River Delta region. A portion of La Ni?a events increases the amount of water vapor in the South China Sea region, so this phenomenon could provide the water vapor condition required for foggy days in Nanjing. Based on the data in December 2007, which contained the greatest number of foggy days for the years studied, the source of fog vapor in Nanjing was primarily from southern China and southwest Taiwan Island based on a synoptic scale study. The water vapor in southern China and in the southwestern flow increased, and after a period of 2-3 days, the humidity in Nanjing increased. Simultaneously, the water vapor from the southwestern of Taiwan Island was directly transported to Nanjing by the southerly wind. Therefore, these two areas are the most important sources of water vapor that results in heavy fog in Nanjing. Using the bivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) mode on the surface temperature and precipitable water vapor, the first mode was found to reflect the seasonal variation from early winter to late winter, which reduced the surface temperature on a large scale. The second mode was found to reflect a large-scale, northward, warm and humid airflow that was accompanied by the enhancement of the subtropical high, particularly between December 15-21, which is primarily responsible for the consecutive foggy days in Nanjing. 相似文献
17.
本文通过对比几种不同的东亚夏季风强度指数,发现东亚及附近地区海陆表面温度的变化与东亚夏季风强度有密切联系。在此基础上,根据强、弱夏季风年东亚表面温度差值的逐候数据做EOF分析,结果发现:第一模态可以揭示从春到夏的季节转换,中国东部陆地增温相对较快,而西太平洋及孟加拉湾海温增温较慢,季节转换提前,有利于夏季风偏强;第二模态则反映了春季中高纬度地区增温快、中低纬增温慢的情形,有利于夏季风增强。在5月份两种模态的综合作用显示:陆地较冷、海洋较暖,夏季陆地的快速增温、海洋增温慢,有利于夏季风增强。将上述影响因素引入到改进的东亚夏季风强度指数中,修正后的指数可以反映东亚地区5月到夏季的海陆增温特点以及季节转换的早晚,并更好地描述了季风区中、高纬度的热力差异,合理地解释夏季风强度与西北太平洋副高及低空急流的关系,因此新指数能够更好地反映全国范围内夏季降水的特点。 相似文献
18.
利用1880—2009年HadISST资料,去掉百年全球变暖的信号,研究发现东太平洋、北太平洋和北大西洋都有较强的年际和年代际振荡信号,特别是赤道东太平洋南侧的年代际振荡是不容忽视的。对全球范围的海表温度资料做EOF分析发现,存在3种主要的全球尺度信号,第一模态为太平洋型、第二模态为北大西洋型以及第三模态为赤道中太平洋型。特别指出,第三模态是CP ENSO在全球模态中的表现。这3种模态在年际和年代际尺度都有显著的信号,在无滤波的情况下,3种模态方差贡献之和为34%。在年代际以上时间尺度范围,3种模态方差贡献之和为61%。在各种时间尺度中,这3种信号与全球平均温度都有一定的联系,尤其第一、二模态的影响最为重要,在年代际尺度中,第一、二模态方差贡献之和达到50%。2005年以后全球并没有明显增温,可能与前2个模态同时下降有关。 相似文献