Improving long-lead seasonal forecasts of precipitation over Southern China based on statistical downscaling using BCC_CSM1.1m     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2021

Long-lead precipitation forecasts for 1–4 seasons ahead are usually difficult in dynamical climate models due to the model deficiencies and the limited persistence of initial signals. But, these forecasts could be empirically improved by statistical approaches. In this study, to improve the seasonal precipitation forecast over the southern China (SC), the statistical downscaling (SD) models are built by using the predictors of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) simulated by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 m (BCC_CSM1.1 m). The different predictors involved in each SD model is selected based on both its close relationship with the target seasonal precipitation and its reasonable prediction skill in the BCC_CSM1.1 m. Cross and independent validations show the superior performance of the SD models, relative to the BCC_CSM1.1 m. The temporal correlation coefficient of SD models could reach > 0.4, exceeding the 95 % confidence level. The SC precipitation index can be much better forecasted by the SD models than by the BCC_CSM1.1 m in terms of the interannual variability. In addition, the errors of the precipitation forecast in all four seasons are significantly reduced over most of SC in the SD models. For the 2015/2016 strong El Niño event, the SD models outperform the dynamical BCC_CSM1.1 m model on the spatial and regional-average precipitation anomalies, mostly due to the effective SST predictor in the SD models and the weak response of the SC precipitation to El Niño-related SST anomalies in the BCC_CSM1.1 m.  相似文献   

概率密度匹配方法在我国近海海面10 m风速预报中的应用     

胡海川  赵伟  董林 《热带气象学报》2021,37(1):91-101

海面风速对航运及海上生产作业影响重大,但数值模式对于海面的风速预报仍存在较大误差。为降低数值模式海面10 m风速预报的系统性误差,提高海上大风预报准确率,基于2017—2019年中国气象局地面气象观测资料对ECMWF确定性模式的10 m风场预报结果进行检验评估,并采用概率密度匹配方法对模式误差进行订正。分析结果表明,概率密度匹配方法可有效地改善数值模式10 m风速预报的系统性误差,订正后风速在各个预报时效和风速量级的平均误差均较订正前有所降低。对于大量级风速的预报,经概率密度匹配方法订正后的风速预报的漏报率可减少10%以上。订正后12 h预报时效的8、9级风速预报的平均绝对误差分别由4.15 m/s、5.61 m/s降低至3.12 m/s、4.08 m/s,120 h预报时效的8、9级风速预报的平均绝对误差由7.38 m/s、9.35 m/s减小至6.46 m/s、8.07 m/s。在冷空气、台风大风天气过程中,基于概率密度匹配方法订正后的风速与实况观测更接近,能够为我国近海洋面10 m风速的预报提供更准确的参考。   相似文献   

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE OPHIOLITIC MELANGE IN THE YALU TSANGPU GRAND CANYON AREA   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Geng Quanru  Pan Guitang  Liu Yuping  Zheng Lailing  Liu Chaoji WT  ”BX 《地学前缘》2000,(Z1)

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE OPHIOLITIC MELANGE IN THE YALU TSANGPU GRAND CANYON AREA  相似文献   

Genetic Modeling of GIS-Based Cell Clusters and Its Application in Mineral Resources Prediction   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

ZhangZhenfei HuGuangdao YangMingguo XiaQinglin JiJinseng GaoFengliang 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2003,14(1):85-89,94

This paper presents a synthetic analysis method for multi-sourced geological data from geo-graphic information system (GIS). In the previous practices of mineral resources prediction, a usually adopted methodology has been statistical analysis of cells delimitated based on thoughts of random sam-pling. That might lead to insufficient utilization of local spatial information, for a cell is treated as a point without internal structure. We now take “cell dusters“, L e. , spatial associations of cells, as basic units of statistics, thus the spatial configuration information of geological variables is easier to be detected and utilized, and the accuracy and reliability of prediction are improved. We build a linear multi-discriminating model for the dusters via genetic algorithm. Both the right-judgment rates and the in-class vs. betweewclass distance ratios are considered to form the evolutional adaptive values of the population. An application of the method in gold mineral resoerces prediction in east Xinjiang, China is presented.  相似文献   

北京西北活动构造定量资料与未来强震地点的讨论   总被引：9，自引：2，他引：9       下载免费PDF全文

冉勇康  陈立春  徐锡伟 《地震学报》2001,23(5):502-513

通过阐述北京西北的活动构造定量数据及其精度，用确定性方法、概率方法和综合评分方法，通过排队，比较出北京西北及邻近地区未来强震可能发生的地点，讨论预测结果中存在的一些问题．结果显示，未来强震最危险的断裂段为:阳原盆地南缘断裂B段和A段、延矾盆地的燕水段、宣化盆地南缘断裂、怀安镇南缘断裂东段和阳高——天镇北缘断裂东段等段落．亦即阳原-深井盆地为最危险区；天镇-怀安镇-宣化盆地为次危险区；万全-张家口和蔚县东北-矾山西南为更次危险区．   相似文献   

A Local Least-Squares Modification of Stokes’ Formula     

L.E. Sjöberg 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2005,49(1):23-30

The combination of Stokes formula and an Earth Gravity Model (EGM) for geoid determination has become a standard procedure. However, the way of modifying Stokes formula vary from author to author, and numerous methods of modification exist. Most methods are deterministic, with the primary goal of reducing the truncation bias committed by limiting the area of Stokes integration around the computation point, but there are also some stochastic methods with the explicit goal to reduce the global mean square error of the geoid height estimator stemming from the truncation bias as well as the random errors of the EGM and the gravity data. The latter estimators are thus, at least from a theoretical point of view, optimal in a global mean sense, but in a local sense they may be far from optimality.Here we take advantage of the error variance-covariance matrices of the EGM and the terrestrial gravity data to derive the modification parameters of Stokes kernel in a local least-squares sense. The solution is given for the unbiased type of modification of Stokes formula of Sjöberg (1991).  相似文献   

3D Motion Parameters Determination Based on Binocular Sequence Images   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHANG Jianqing ZHANG Chunsen HE Shaojun 《地球空间信息科学学报》2006,9(1):32-37

Introduction Amongexistingvisionmoniteringandtheesti mationof3Dmotion,nearlyallinvestigations aremoniteringandtracingthemotionobject basedonsinglesequenceimages.Themotionin formationbyanalyzingthesinglesequenceima gesisrelative,whichincludesascaleoffactor…  相似文献   

珠峰地区大气边界层结构的一次观测研究   总被引：5，自引：15，他引：5  

孙方林  马耀明  马伟强  李茂善 《高原气象》2006,25(6):1014-1019

利用2005年8月31日~9月5日中国科学院珠穆朗玛峰综合观测研究站的LAP3000风廓线仪的观测资料,分析了该地区气温日变化和大气边界层风廓线结构。结果表明,该地区1500 m以下大气边界层主要受高原山地地形及珠峰地区冰川环境的影响,冰川风可能是引起观测期间下午强风天气的主要原因;1500 m以上高空受西风气流影响程度增大,但东南风仍占有一定比例。  相似文献   

On the characterization of aerosols using the Ångström exponent in the Athens area   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

D.G. Kaskaoutis  H.D Kambezidis  A.D. Adamopoulos  P.A. Kassomenos 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2006,68(18):2147-2163

Ground-based spectroradiometric measurements were taken in the atmosphere of Athens during May 1995 in order to investigate various atmospheric conditions. This study focuses on the Ångström exponent α, which is the slope of the logarithm of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) versus the logarithm of the wavelength, lnλ, and is commonly used to characterize the wavelength dependence of AOD and to provide some basic information on the aerosol size distribution. Using the Volz method, Ångström exponent values, α, were derived in five narrow spectral bands, 340–380, 380–440, 440–500, 500–670 and 670–870 nm. Also using both Volz and least-squares fit methods α values were derived for the whole spectrum 340-870 nm.The results show that α depends strongly on the wavelength interval used due to the curvature of the lnAOD versus lnλ line. Using the spectral dependence of the Ångström exponent and the relationship between α computed in different spectral bands with AOD, an attempt to investigate on the aerosol types is made. The results obtained are rather contradictory and the determination of a dominant aerosol type in the Athens area is not clear. Nevertheless, in the most cases the anthropogenic aerosols seem to be the dominant type with rather significant contributions of coarse-mode particles due to particle growing or due to mixing processes with other aerosol types.  相似文献   

新疆塔里木河下游(上段)地区天然草地生态脆弱性研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

龚新梅  汪溪远  潘晓玲  师庆东 《干旱区地理》2006,29(2):230-236

塔里木河(以下简称塔河)流域是我国生态脆弱地区之一,其中塔河下游地区为严重脆弱地区。塔河下游地区广大的天然草地主要分布在绿洲-荒漠过渡带,该地带也是一个典型的生态脆弱带。依据有关生态脆弱带评价方法,结合塔河下游天然草地分布的实际状况,建立生态脆弱性评价体系。对垂直于塔河河道不同距离上的草地生态环境进行了分析,得出在距离河道500 m以上的地带草地生态环境表现为中度生态脆弱,<350 m的草地生态环境表现为一般脆弱。评价结果基本符合实际情况,对指导当地合理开发和利用草地资源具有一定的价值。  相似文献