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It is shown that episodes of comparative seismic quiescence that lasted about 20–25 years in the areas of study alternated with intervals of sharply increased seismicity as series of large (M ≥ 6.9) earthquakes occurred during two to three decades. Since no M ≥ 6.6 earthquake has occurred in the area for as long as 21 years after the 1992 Susamyr event, middle-term prediction would require identification of zones of imminent large earthquakes. More reliable identification of such zones rests on data relating to inhomogeneities in the field of S-wave attenuation in the lithosphere, as well as on the characteristics of ring structures of seismicity. Such structures are formed as zones of seismic quiescence that are bounded by M ? Mth earthquake epicenters, where Mth is the threshold magnitude value. Correlative relationships were previously derived, lgL(Mw) and Mth(Mw), for events with different focal mechanisms (L is the length of the longer axis of a seismicity ring and Mw is the magnitude of the associated large earthquake). These relationships were used to estimate the Mw of large events that can occur in these ring structures. The greatest earthquake with Mw ? 7.5 is probably about to occur in southern Tien Shan, east of the 1949 Khait earthquake rupture. A smaller event (Mw ～ 7.0) can occur in the Kyrgyz Range area. Still smaller earthquakes probably have their precursory areas north and east of Lake Issyk-Kul, as well as in Dzungaria. 相似文献
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E. Yu. Sokolova M. Israil P. Gupta A. V. Koshurnikov M. Yu. Smirnov M. V. Cherevatova 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2016,52(2):271-290
We present the results of studying the geoelectrical structure of the zone of continental subduction of the Indian lithospheric plate within the Gahrwal Himalaya. In the framework of the Russian–Indian project, the data of the broadband magnetotelluric soundings conducted by the Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee on the regional profile across the structures of the orogen were expanded, processed, and interpreted by the new program tools adapted for the measurements in the mountain conditions and for the presence of industrial noise. The constructed model of the deep electrical conductivity cross section for Garhwal revealed its two-dimensional (2D) features and more accurately delineated the location of the midcrustal conductor associated with the ramp structure of the detachment plane. The correlations with the regional distribution of the earthquake hypocenters and the seismotomographic images suggest a common, fluid-related nature of the seismic and geoelectrical anomalies in the crust of the Garhwal Tectonic Corridor and enabled the identification of the seismogenerating zones. Among the data of the expanded profile set of magnetotelluric and magnetovariational transfer functions, the response of a poorly explored deep conductive body is revealed. This object is located east of the profile and is probably associated with the activation of the ancient trans-Himalayan cratonic structures which prepares the segmentation of the Himalayan arc. 相似文献
104.
M. N. Berdichevsky E. Yu. Sokolova Iv. M. Varentsov A. K. Rybin N. V. Baglaenko V. Yu. Batalev N. S. Golubtsova V. E. Matyukov P. Yu. Pushkarev 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2010,46(8):679-697
During the past two decades, at the Research station (Bishkek) more than a hundred magnetotelluric and magnetovariational
soundings were carried out on the Naryn geotraverse that intersects the Tien Shan region from Lake Balkhash to the Tarim Basin
along the 76° E meridian. Integration and complex interpretation of the data of these soundings with improved resolution and
reliability of the geoelectric model of the Central Tien Shan section became an urgent challenge. Our paper presents a complex
of methods for processing and invariant analysis of the electromagnetic data developed for the solution of this problem. Its
application allowed us to validate the choice of the 2D interpretation model for the Naryn Line and to form the adequate ensemble
of the data to be inverted. The developed approaches will also be useful in similar studies in the other mountain regions. 相似文献
105.
E. D. Aleksanova Iv. M. Varentsov M. I. Vereshchagina V. A. Kulikov P. Yu. Pushkarev E. Yu. Sokolova N. L. Shustov V. K. Khmelevskoi A. G. Yakovlev 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2010,46(8):707-716
The methods and results of electromagnetic soundings (EMS) performed in the transition zone from the Moscow syneclise to the Voronezh anteclise in the vicinity of the MSU geophysical base are considered. This base is located in the village of Aleksandrovka in the Yukhnov district of Kaluga area. The composite EMS curves characterizing rock complexes composing the sedimentary cover are constructed, and changes in these complexes within the specified transition zone are traced. The standard curves of magnetotelluric (MT) and magnetovariational (MV) soundings are constructed from the results of long-term measurements at the ALX observation point located at the Moscow State University’s (MSU) geophysical base. The maps of thickness and total longitudinal conductance of the sedimentary cover are constructed from the results of interpretation of MT data obtained in the region. A conductor in the consolidated Earth’s crust is identified within the Voronezh anteclise. Prospects for further investigations of the region are associated with the tracing of the crustal conductor within the Voronezh anteclise, as well as with the organization of an observatory at the MSU’s geophysical base in order to perform long-term measurements of the electromagnetic (EM) and other geophysical fields. 相似文献
106.
S. Z. Smirnov A. V. Rybin E. N. Sokolova D. V. Kuzmin A. V. Degterev T. Yu. Timina 《Russian Journal of Pacific Geology》2017,11(1):46-63
The paper reports the first results of the petrological studies of magmatic melts that formed siliceous pyroclastic deposits related to voluminous eruptions on Iturup Island. The caldera-forming eruptions of the Lvinaya Past and the Vetrovoy Isthmus, having similar features, resulted from the evolution of silicic melts that originated from partial melting of metabasalts. According to the mineral thermometry results, the melt was crystallized at ~800°C. The phenocrysts from the Vetrovoy Isthmus pumices were crystallized at <1 kbar, while those from the Lvinaya Past were formed at higher pressures. The pyroclastic rock compositions in both calderas correspond to moderately aluminous dacite and rhyolitic dacite of the normal series, whose melts likely did not undergo significant crystallization differentiation before the eruptions. The main volatile components of the magma include H2O, CO2, S, F, and Cl. Degassing with emission of water–carbon-dioxide fluid accompanied the early crystallization of plagioclase in the Vetrovoy Isthmus pumice. Evidence of pre-eruption melt degassing in the Lvinaya Past were not found. Water release from the melts may be related to both the early magma degassing and the eruptions. The lack of data evidencing the deep differentiation and mixing of contrasting melts implies a relatively small time period between the acid melt appearance and eruptions. 相似文献
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Presented are the results of studies of the effect that oceans (the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific) and atmospheric circulation at the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere produce on forest fire conditions in the Far East. Expansion coefficients of the natural components of anomaly fields of the sea surface temperature of two oceans are proposed as the main predictors of the forest fire drought index. Characteristics of atmospheric circulation in the Aleutian low area are considered as an additional predictor. 相似文献
109.
This paper presents results from a study of variations in short-period shear-wave attenuation in the lithosphere of the Baikal Rift Zone (BRZ). We used earthquake records made at the Ulan-Bator station (ULN) at epicentral distances of ～400–1300 km. The ratios of maximum amplitudes in the Sn and Pn waves were considered. We show that these ratios are on the whole considerably higher than those in other areas of Central Asia. It was found that zones of low shear wave attenuation coincide with the rupture zones of large earthquakes that occurred during the 19th and 20th centuries. We identified zones of high attenuation where no large (M～ > 7.0) seismic events have occurred during at least 180 years. The hypothesis we propose is that precursory processes before future large earthquakes may be occurring in these zones. We discuss the question of whether wave attenuation characteristics may be related to seismicity. 相似文献
110.
The Ust’-Emuneret floristic assemblage from the Emuneret Formation developed in the Enmyvaam River basin (Okhotsk-Chukotka volcanogenic belt) is described. The age of flora-bearing deposits is debatable, being previously determined in the interval of the Cenomanian to Campanian. According to the new data, the assemblage includes 57 species of fossil plants with dominant angiosperms, subdominant conifers, and subordinate ferns, liverworts, ginkgoaleans, and czekanowskialeans. The Ust’-Emuneret flora is characterized by the presence of advanced forms among different plant groups, which occur in Santonian-Campanian and younger floras of northeastern Russia, and by the presence of relict ginkgoaleans and czekanowskialeans. The flora is compared with other floras from neighboring regions, which provides grounds for the inference on its most probable Late Santonian age (probably, including the Early Santonian and initial Campanian). 相似文献