具有时变参数的门限自回归模型及其在气候预报中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

杨明  张万诚  沙文生 《热带气象学报》1996,12(3):224-229

将时变参数模型引入门限自回归模型中，提出具有时变参数的门限自回归模型，并对昆明，蒙自，河口等地区３月温度序列进行预报，结果表明：这种模型比门限自回归模型的预报准确度有明显提高，这是因为用这种模型进行预报时，可以随时更新预报模式。  相似文献   

2000年前辽宁地区地震活动趋势预测     

Sun Wenfu Gu Haoding 《东北地震研究》1995,(3)

根据数理统计理论和有关文献，利用辽宁地区（３８．７°－４３°Ｎ，１１９°－１２５°Ｅ）１９７０年以来的地震资料，建立了逐年最高震级时间序列的门限自回归模型和修改的震级一频度关系。同时，对辽宁地区地震活动的时空分布特征也作了详细的研究。最后，对辽宁地区未来（到２０００年）地震活动趋势和强度作了预测。  相似文献   

适用于温度和气压秒级数据的质量检查方法初探     

廖荣伟  房小怡  刘怀玉  曹玉静  张冬斌  朱玉周 《气象与环境学报》2022,38(4):118-126

利用自动气象站秒级观测数据, 应用一种基于百分位阈值法的界限值检查算法, 对温度、气压2种秒级数据进行了界限值检查试验。结果表明: 针对试验站温度、气压秒级数据进行质量检查, 采用百分位(p=99.9%和p=0.1%)阈值法的检查效率较高, 且具有误判率较低的特点。采用6种百分位阈值法系数组合方案以及2种标准差法进行检查试验, 其中有3种方案的“标记”率低于给定的统计预期值, 误检率较低, 检查结果较好, 检查出的“标记”数据分别为33个、3个和0个, 标记率分别为0.076%、0.007%和0.000%。综合分析, 以1 min滑动窗口结合30 min时间区间系数组合方案的百分位阈值法检查效率最优, 具有“标记”数据少, 误判率低, 且计算机运算负荷小的特点。对连续30 d的温度和气压秒级数据运用该算法检查, 结果均较好。对人工构造的错误数据, 能准确检出。该质量检查算法可应用到无长年代历史观测资料的气象站、缺少临近站对比的气象站以及新建气象站使用, 对于地处偏远、条件恶劣的气象站也同样适用。  相似文献   

These lit areas are undeveloped: Delimiting China’s urban extents from thresholded nighttime light imagery     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2016

Nighttime light imagery is a powerful tool to study urbanization because it can provide a uniform metric, lit area, to delimit urban extents. However, lit area is much larger than actual urban area, so thresholds of digital number (DN) values are usually needed to reduce the lit area. The threshold varies greatly among different regions, but at present it is still not very clear what factors impact the changes of the threshold. In this study, urban extent by province for China is mapped using official statistical data and four intercalibrated and geometrically corrected nighttime light images between 2004 and 2010. Lit area in the imagery for most provinces is at least 94% greater than the official amount of urban area. Regression analyses show a significant correlation between optimal thresholds and GDP per capita, and larger thresholds more commonly indicate higher economic level. Size and environmental condition may explain a province’s threshold that is disproportionate to GDP. Findings indicate one threshold DN is not appropriate for multiple (adjacent) province urban extent mapping, and optimal thresholds for one year may be notably different than the next. Province-level derived thresholds are not appropriate for other geographic levels. Brightness of nighttime lights is an advantage over imagery that relies on daylight reflection, and decreases in brightness indicate faster growth in the horizontal direction than the vertical. A province’s optimal threshold does not always maintain an increase with population and economic growth. In the economically developed eastern provinces, urban population densities decreased (and this is seen in the brightness data), while urban population increased.  相似文献   

利用门限自回归建模预测广东地区2000年前后的地震强度     

刘特培 《华南地震》1998,18(3):41-45

利用自激励门限自回归建模的原理和方法,对广东地区陆地和珠江口外以及台湾海峡部分地区２０００年前后的最大地震强度进行了预测。结果表明,该区至２００１年可能发生地震的最大震级为ＭＬ５．２级,未来几年内发生Ｍ≥６．０级地震的可能性较小。  相似文献   

The rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update     

Fausto Guzzetti  Silvia Peruccacci  Mauro Rossi  Colin P. Stark 《Landslides》2008,5(1):3-17

A global database of 2,626 rainfall events that have resulted in shallow landslides and debris flows was compiled through a thorough literature search. The rainfall and landslide information was used to update the dependency of the minimum level of rainfall duration and intensity likely to result in shallow landslides and debris flows established by Nel Caine in 1980. The rainfall intensity–duration (ID) values were plotted in logarithmic coordinates, and it was established that with increased rainfall duration, the minimum average intensity likely to trigger shallow slope failures decreases linearly, in the range of durations from 10 min to 35 days. The minimum ID for the possible initiation of shallow landslides and debris flows was determined. The threshold curve was obtained from the rainfall data using an objective statistical technique. To cope with differences in the intensity and duration of rainfall likely to result in shallow slope failures in different climatic regions, the rainfall information was normalized to the mean annual precipitation and the rainy-day normal. Climate information was obtained from the global climate dataset compiled by the Climate Research Unit of the East Anglia University. The obtained global ID thresholds are significantly lower than the threshold proposed by Caine (Geogr Ann A 62:23–27, 1980), and lower than other global thresholds proposed in the literature. The new global ID thresholds can be used in a worldwide operational landslide warning system based on global precipitation measurements where local and regional thresholds are not available..  相似文献   

Jason-2卫星阈值重跟踪算法比较     

范雕  李姗姗  孟书宇  曲政豪  刘帆  冯进凯 《测绘科学技术学报》2017,34(2)

选取Jason-2卫星在中国南海北纬15°~18.5°范围1 276个波形数据,依据Threshold算法和SeaIce算法对波形进行重跟踪,得到不同阈值水平下的距离改正结果。结果表明:当星下点轨迹靠近陆地时,距离改正值增大。然后,依据不同方法、不同阈值水平对应的距离改正值对卫星观测的海面高实施修正,得到相应的海面高结果。作为验证,选取法国国家太空研究中心(CNES)发布的海面高作为外部检核条件。将修正后的海面高与CNES公布的海面高进行较差比较,较差值的统计分析表明:SeaIce重跟踪算法在阈值水平为50%时,差值的标准差明显小于其他方法的计算结果。  相似文献   

Characterizing bi-temporal patterns of land surface temperature using landscape metrics based on sub-pixel classifications from Landsat TM/ETM+     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2015

Landscape patterns in a region have different sizes, shapes and spatial arrangements, which contribute to the spatial heterogeneity of the landscape and are linked to the distinct behavior of thermal environments. There is a lack of research generating landscape metrics from discretized percent impervious surface area data (ISA), which can be used as an indicator of urban spatial structure and level of development, and quantitatively characterizing the spatial patterns of landscapes and land surface temperatures (LST). In this study, linear spectral mixture analysis (LSMA) is used to derive sub-pixel ISA. Continuous fractional cover thresholds are used to discretize percent ISA into different categories related to urban land cover patterns. Landscape metrics are calculated based on different ISA categories and used to quantify urban landscape patterns and LST configurations. The characteristics of LST and percent ISA are quantified by landscape metrics such as indices of patch density, aggregation, connectedness, shape and shape complexity. The urban thermal intensity is also analyzed based on percent ISA. The results indicate that landscape metrics are sensitive to the variation of pixel values of fractional ISA, and the integration of LST, LSMA. Landscape metrics provide a quantitative method for describing the spatial distribution and seasonal variation in urban thermal patterns in response to associated urban land cover patterns.  相似文献   

鄂东矿集区矽卡岩型铁矿的叠加富集机制:来自磁铁矿结构和矿石品位数据的制约   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

朱乔乔  谢桂青  李伟 《岩石学报》2019,35(12):3703-3720

矽卡岩型铁矿是我国重要的铁矿类型之一,但该类型铁矿床的品位存在两极分化的现象。本文对鄂东矿集区内典型的矽卡岩型铁矿:大冶铁铜矿、程潮铁矿和金山店铁矿开展详细的磁铁矿显微结构对比,并利用概率图解法对这三个矿床的矿石品位数据进行了筛分。发现在大冶铁铜矿和程潮铁矿中的磁铁矿至少有两个世代,发育明显的叠加结构,且叠加结构在光学显微镜和背散射电子照片中可以识别出来;金山店铁矿中局部矿石也发育叠加结构。这些矿床中代表性勘探线的钻孔品位数据的累积频率曲线具有由低值(TFe 18. 04%～33. 03%)和高值(TFe 48. 97%～55. 63%)两个非相交总体所形成的混合分布模式,剔除低品位数据(TFe 20%)再次筛分其分布模式不变,但单一总体的参数有所改变。磁铁矿结构和品位数据筛分结果表明,这些矿床可能是两个或多个期次/阶段成矿作用叠加的结果,但不同矿床的叠加程度略有区别,大冶和程潮铁矿叠加程度较高,而金山店则相对较弱,这可能是导致大冶和程潮矿床整体为富铁矿而金山店铁矿只有局部是富铁矿的重要原因。因此,叠加富集可能是矽卡岩型铁矿中铁高效富集的一种重要机制,多世代磁铁矿的发育范围和叠加程度可以在一定程度上反映高品位矿石的分布状况,其叠加程度可以作为矽卡岩型富铁矿的找矿线索。  相似文献   

夏季极端高温对武汉市人口超额死亡率的定量评估   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

杨宏青  陈正洪  谢森  叶殿秀  龚洁 《气象与环境学报》2013,29(5):140-143

利用1998-2008年夏季（6-8月）武汉市居民逐日死亡人数（率）及同期逐日气象要素,分析极端高温对超额死亡率的影响程度及其阈值,采用逐步回归法建立定量评估模型,并进行预报效果检验和典型年回代检验,以利于开展高温对健康影响的评估及医疗气象预报。结果表明：武汉夏季人群超额死亡率可以定量表述;极端高温对超额死亡率影响最大,湿度、气压、风速几乎没有影响;超额死亡率随日最高气温升高呈指数规律增加,高温致超额死亡的阈值为35.0 ℃,“热日”比“非热日”平均死亡率高出50.7 %;采用日最高气温≥35 ℃的有效累积温度及当日平均气温建立的超额死亡率评估模型对2003年夏季一次高温热浪过程的回代试验、2007年和2008年夏季的评估试验效果较好,表明该模型可用于实际评估业务中。  相似文献