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The impacts of climate change on future river flows are a growing concern. Typically, impacts are simulated by driving hydrological models with climate model ensemble data. The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) provided probabilistic projections, enabling a risk-based approach to decision-making under climate change. Recently, an update was released—UKCP18—so there is a need for information on how impacts may differ. The probabilistic projections from UKCP18 and UKCP09 are here applied using the change factor method with catchment-based hydrological modelling for 10 catchments across England. Projections of changes in median, mean, high, and low flows are made for the 2050s, using the A1B emissions scenario from UKCP09 and UKCP18 as well as the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios from UCKP18. The results show that, in all catchments for all flow measures, the central estimate of change under UKCP18 is similar to that from UKCP09 (A1B emissions). However, the probabilistic uncertainty ranges from UKCP18 are, in all cases, greater than from UKCP09, despite UKCP18 having a smaller ensemble size than UKCP09. Although there are differences between the central estimates of change using UKCP18 RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and A1B emissions, there is considerable overlap in the uncertainty ranges. The results suggest that existing assessments of hydrological impacts remain relevant, though it will be necessary to evaluate sensitive decisions using the latest projections. The analysis will aid development of advice to users of current guidance based on UKCP09 and help make decisions about the prioritization of further hydrological impacts work using UKCP18, which should also apply other products from UKCP18 like the 12-km regional data.  相似文献   
23.
Delta asymmetry occurs where there is strong wave influence and net longshore transport. Differences in the morphology and facies architecture between updrift and downdrift sides of asymmetric deltas are potentially significant for exploration and exploitation of resources in this class of reservoirs. Although delta asymmetry has been recognized widely from modern wave‐influenced deltaic shorelines, there are few documented examples in the ancient record. Based on an integrated sedimentological and ichnological study, the along‐strike variability and delta asymmetry within a single parasequence (Ps 6) is documented in continuously exposed outcrops of the Cretaceous Ferron Sandstone Member of the Mancos Shale Formation near Hanksville in southern Utah. Two intra‐parasequence discontinuity surfaces are recognized which allow subdivision of the parasequence into three bedsets, marked as Ps 6‐1 to Ps 6‐3. Four facies successions are recognized: (i) wave/storm‐dominated shoreface; (ii) river‐dominated delta front; (iii) wave/storm‐reworked delta front; and (iv) distributary channel and mouth bar. Dips of cross‐strata within distributary‐mouth bars and shorefaces show a strong downdrift (southward) component. Ps 6‐3 predominantly consists of river‐dominated delta‐front deposits, whereas Ps 6‐1 and Ps 6‐2 show an along‐strike facies change with shoreface deposits in the north, passing into heterolithic, river‐dominated delta‐front successions south to south‐eastward, and wave/storm‐reworked delta‐front deposits further to the south‐east. Trace fossil suites correspondingly show distinct along‐strike changes from robust and diverse expressions of the archetypal Cruziana Ichnofacies and Skolithos Ichnofacies, into suites characterized by horizontal, morphologically simple, facies‐crossing ichnogenera, reflecting a more stressed, river‐dominated environment. Further south‐eastward, trace fossil abundance and diversity increase, reflecting a return to archetypal ichnofacies. The overall facies integrated with palaeocurrent data indicate delta asymmetry. The asymmetric delta consists of sandier shoreface deposits on the updrift side and mixed riverine and wave/storm‐reworked deposits on the downdrift side, similar to that observed in the modern examples. However, in contrast to the recent delta asymmetry models, significant paralic, lagoonal and bay‐fill facies are not documented in the downdrift regions of the asymmetric delta. This observation is attributed to a negative palaeoshoreline trajectory during delta progradation and subsequent transgressive erosion. The asymmetric delta was induced by net longshore transport from north to south. The forced regressive nature of the delta precludes significant preservation of topset mud.  相似文献   
24.
Cores from the New River Lagoon in Belize have been analysed using a range of palaeolimnological proxies to reconstruct change since the latest Pleistocene. The combination of diatom and stable isotope analyses (supported by mineralogical and major element data) indicate that the New River Lagoon has been a freshwater system throughout the period of record. For most of this time the lagoon has been hydrologically open, but there are indications that it may have become closed in the latest Pleistocene or very early Holocene. This may have been associated with a drier climate and lower sea level. Mid‐Holocene records are consistent with those from elsewhere in the region, indicating a stable and moist climate. The late Holocene was marked by greater variability, but there is no clear evidence of any drying in the late Classic coincident with the Maya ‘collapse’ ca. AD 900. Our results indicate that the continuity of occupation at the Maya site of Lamanai on the shores of the New River Lagoon is consistent with continued access to freshwater during periods of regional climatic variability. The importance of conditions at individual sites when considering both system response and human vulnerability to climate change is emphasised. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
25.
The Middle Pleistocene palaeoclimate and palaeoenvironment evolution of the Las Tablas de Daimiel wetlands is described using a combination of sedimentology, pollen and δ13C and δ18O isotopic records of Unit B of core LT‐199906. This unit mostly contains fluvial and palustrine sediments. U/Th and amino acid racemization (AAR) dating and a comparison of the δ18O curve of Unit B with oceanic records suggests that Unit B spans the period from the end of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10 (340 ka) to the first stages of MIS 7 (ca. 210 ka). MIS 9 was characterised by a regional vegetation dominated by Cupressaceae, with Pinus as a tree element. The water level was high and temperatures were very probably higher than during the Holocene. MIS 8 and the first substages of MIS 7 (7e, 7d and 7c) were dominated by xerophilous steppe vegetation in lowlands (elevations around 610 m above sea level) near to the wetland. At higher altitudes, far away from the wetland, there were fewer Pinus than in MIS 9, and a greater presence of warm, temperate and cool climate tree elements. The aquatic system in MIS 9 became shallower, with eutrophication and the accumulation of organic matter occurring; temperatures were similar to or lower than those of the Holocene. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
26.
The Agulhas Bank region, south of Africa, is an oceanographically important and complex area. The leakage of warm saline Indian Ocean water into the South Atlantic around the southern tip of Africa is a crucial factor in the global thermohaline circulation. Foraminiferal assemblage, stable isotope and sedimentological data from the top 10 m of core MD962080, recovered from the western Agulhas Bank Slope, are used to indicate changes in water mass circulation in the southeastern South Atlantic for the last 450 kyr. Sedimentological and planktonic foraminiferal data give clear signals of cold water intrusions. The benthic stable isotope record provides the stratigraphic framework and indicates that the last four climatic cycles are represented (i.e. down to marine isotope stage (MIS) 12). The planktonic foraminiferal assemblages bear a clear transitional to subantarctic character with Globorotalia inflata and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (dextral) being the dominant taxa. Input of cold, subantarctic waters into the region by means of leakage through the Subtropical Convergence, as part of Agulhas ring shedding, and a general cooling of surface waters is suggested by increased occurrence of the subantarctic assemblage during glacial periods. Variable input of Indian Ocean waters via the Agulhas Current is indicated by the presence of tropical/subtropical planktonic foraminiferal species Globoquadrina dutertrei, Globigerinoides ruber (alba) and Globorotalia menardii with maximum leakage occurring at glacial terminations. The continuous presence of G. menardii throughout the core suggests that the exchange of water from the South Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic Ocean was never entirely obstructed in the last 450 kyr. The benthic carbon isotope record and sediment textural data reflect a change in bottom water masses over the core location from North Atlantic Deep Water to Upper Southern Component Water. Planktonic foraminiferal assemblages and sediment composition indicate a profound change in surface water conditions over the core site approximately 200–250 kyr BP, during MIS 7, from mixed subantarctic and transitional water masses to overall warmer surface water conditions.  相似文献   
27.
在系统梳理2018年度全球发现并经国际矿物学协会(IMA)新矿物与矿物分类命名专业委员会(CNMNC)批准的128个新矿物种资料的基础上,从矿物名称、晶体化学式、晶系和空间群、晶胞参数、主要粉晶数据、物理性质、光学性质、产地与产状、与其他矿物种的关系、矿物名称来源、化学反应和光谱学特征等方面归纳总结了这些新矿物的重要矿物学特征。并按照中国新矿物及矿物命名专业委员会颁布的《矿物种汉名审订条例》,对128个新矿物种的中文名称进行了审订。通过适时公布国际新矿物工作的新进展和新成果,并逐步完善和规范矿物种中文译名体系,为我国新矿物的发现和研究提供有科学价值的参考和借鉴,并不断推动矿物种中文译名规范化与标准化的进程。  相似文献   
28.
‘Alternative’ food initiatives (AFIs) are often interpreted as political movements, constructed as defiant alternatives to industrial agri‐food relations, and represented by a performance of singular alterity. This understanding of alternative collapses into a mere politics of identity, criticised in the literature for its oversimplification. In this paper, we utilise an established methodological framework that retains AFI diversity, to create a novel typology of AFIs by diverse and embodied practice rather than animating political project. In doing so, we point to the political potential for AFIs to ‘do’ food otherwise and make different worlds.  相似文献   
29.
利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料和辽宁省53站逐日降水量及日平均气温资料,采用诊断分析方法,研究了2018年夏季辽宁异常高温干旱的环流特征及成因。结果表明:2018年夏季辽宁发生了1962年以来最严重的高温干旱事件。辽宁地区上空受相当正压结构的异常反气旋性环流控制,是异常高温干旱发生的局地环流成因;异常反气旋性环流南侧存在一个异常气旋性环流,阻挡了孟加拉湾和南海地区西南暖湿气流向辽宁地区输送,不利于辽宁地区产生降水。南亚高压和西太副高相向运动并在辽宁地区上空重叠,是异常高温干旱发生的大尺度环流成因。EAP/PJ型和EU型遥相关是西太副高异常发展的直接原因。准定常Rossby波能量频散是导致EAP/PJ型和EU型遥相关形成与维持的根本原因之一。源自北大西洋地区的Rossby波能量,沿西风急流波导区向下游频散,使得包括辽宁在内的我国北方广大地区位势高度异常增强;同时我国东北至朝鲜半岛和日本一带存在Rossby波能量的准经向频散,同样有利于EAP/PJ型遥相关的维持与发展,使得辽宁及其附近地区上空受位势高度正距平控制。  相似文献   
30.
In a dry valley near Ventnor, Isle of Wight, thick subaerial slope deposits of Devensian Late-glacial age overlie the Chalk. The deposits are crudely stratified chalk muds and rubble produced by frost-shattering, and moved downslope by the release of water from melting snow-fields and frozen ground. A laterally extensive humic horizon of a rendzina soil occurs within the sequence, clearly reflecting a period of relative slope stability. In places this horizon divides and its upper surface appears to have been disturbed, possibly by cryoturbation. Micromorphological and other analyses confirm the pedogenic origin of this humic horizon, but also demonstrate the occurrence of pedological features both above and below it. The humic horizon therefore is not a ‘buried’ soil in the strictest sense, but is part of a vertical sequence representing a single complex soil with transported, accretionary and welded components. Molluscan analyses reveal that the sequence can be divided into four local mollusc zones, showing a progressive increase in faunal diversity throughout the profile. This succession is broadly similar to other Late-glacial sequences described from south-east England. Minute fragments of charcoal from the lower part of the humic horizon have yielded an AMS date of 11690 ± 120 vr BP, demonstrating formation during the ‘Allerød phase’ of the Late-glacial Interstadial. This humic horizon is correlated provisionally with the ‘Pitstone Soil’, even though existing dates from its type-site in Buckinghamshire are somewhat younger.  相似文献   
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