The social cost of carbon – i.e., the marginal present-value cost imposed by greenhouse gas emissions – is determined by a complex interaction between factual assumptions, modeling methods, and value judgments. Among the most crucial factors is society's willingness to tolerate potentially catastrophic environmental risks. To explore this issue, the present analysis employs a stochastic climate–economy model that accounts for uncertainties in baseline economic growth, baseline emissions, greenhouse gas mitigation costs, carbon cycling, climate sensitivity, and climate change damages. In this model, preferences are specified to reflect the high degree of risk aversion revealed by private investment decisions, signaled by the large observed gap between the average rates of return paid by safe and risky financial instruments. In contrast, most climate–economy models assume much lower risk aversion. Given high risk aversion, the analysis finds that investment in climate stabilization yields especially large net benefits by forestalling low-probability threats to long-run human well-being. Accordingly, the social cost of carbon attains the markedly high value of $25,700 per metric ton of carbon dioxide in a baseline scenario in which emissions are unregulated. This value falls to just $4 per ton as the stringency of control measures is successively increased. These results cast doubt on the idea that the social cost of carbon takes on a uniquely defined, objective value that is independent of policy decisions. This does not, however, rule out the use of carbon prices to achieve the benefits of climate stabilization using least-cost mitigation measures. 相似文献
Microbes live throughout the soil profile. Microbial communities in subsurface horizons are impacted by a saltwater–freshwater transition zone formed by seawater intrusion (SWI) in coastal regions. The main purpose of this study is to explore the changes in microbial communities within the soil profile because of SWI. The study characterizes the depth-dependent distributions of bacterial and archaeal communities through high-throughput sequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons by collecting surface soil and deep core samples at nine soil depths in Longkou City, China. The results showed that although microbial communities were considerably impacted by SWI in both horizontal and vertical domains, the extent of these effects was variable. The soil depth strongly influenced the microbial communities, and the microbial diversity and community structure were significantly different (p < 0.05) at various depths. Compared with SWI, soil depth was a greater influencing factor for microbial diversity and community structure. Furthermore, soil microbial community structure was closely related to the environmental conditions, among which the most significant environmental factors were soil depth, pH, organic carbon, and total nitrogen.
This paper presents 210 positions of Phoebe, the ninth satellite of Saturn, observed with the 1-m telescope at the Yunnan Observatory during the years 2003–2005, using a CCD image-overlapping calibration method proposed recently by Peng et al. After the observed positions of Phoebe are compared with its theoretical positions computed by the new JPL ephemerides DE405 and SAT199, the mean residuals (observed minus computed) are 0.21 and −0.05 arcsec in right ascension and declination, respectively, with a standard deviation of 0.06 arcsec. 相似文献
The image-processing techniques used by Peng et al. are further improved to measure precisely the positions of Saturn and its satellites. 495 CCD images taken with the 1-m telescope at the Yunnan Observatory during the years 2002–2004 are processed with these techniques. These measured pixel positions are compared to their theoretical positions computed with the ephemerides of TASS1.7 for the satellites and JPL DE405 for Saturn itself. Analysis of the data for the intersatellite positions among four bright Saturnian satellites (S3–S6) and for Saturn–satellite (i.e. Saturn–Titan) positions shows that these measured positions have the same dispersions, i.e. about 0.05 and 0.06 arcsec in right ascension and declination, respectively. However, for the fainter satellites, Enceladus and Mimas, poorer residuals up to 0.1 and 0.2 arcsec, respectively, in both directions are found mainly due to their small separations from the primary planet and short exposure time in order to obtain useful images of Saturn. 相似文献
Diatoms are used widely for paleolimnological studies in lakes, but their use for studying the environmental history of reservoirs
has not been tested extensively. Reservoirs have hydrodynamic characteristics intermediate between those of rivers and lakes.
This study assessed the utility of diatom assemblages as recorders of long-term changes in hydrodynamics and spatial gradients
in Liuxihe Reservoir, an impoundment in southern China. Four sediment cores were collected in the reservoir, from the riverine,
transition and lacustrine zones. Each core was sectioned at 2-cm intervals to investigate the stratigraphic distribution of
accumulated diatoms. Varve counting was used to develop a chronology for one of the cores. The unique characteristics of Liuxihe
Reservoir, including its large size, great depth, long narrow morphology and strong thermal stratification for 10 months of
the year, limit secondary sedimentation processes and preserve the varves, enabling development of an accurate chronology.
Damming profoundly altered the physical environment of the former river, especially in the lacustrine zone, where the change
is clearly illustrated by diatoms in the sediment. Diatom abundance increased as a consequence of nutrient enrichment after
construction of the dam in 1958, but later decreased as the new impoundment stabilized. After damming, relative abundance
of Cyclotella increased along with a simultaneous decrease of Navicula and Achnanthes in the lacustrine zone, most significantly in 1963, when Cyclotella replaced Navicula as the dominant genus. This switch was indicative of a general shift from a lotic to a lentic habitat. A longitudinal gradient
was apparent in the patterns of sedimentation and diatom accumulation at different sites in the reservoir, with diatom abundance
highest in the transition zone. In the long term, water discharge from the reservoir showed a weak, but significant negative
correlation with diatom abundance in the lacustrine zone (r = −0.320, P = 0.03). In summary, diatom assemblages in the Liuxihe Reservoir sediments recorded past changes in hydrodynamics, suggesting
that paleolimnological study of some impoundments is feasible. 相似文献