中国特别重大自然灾害损失统计的最新进展——《特别重大自然灾害损失统计制度》解析     

周洪建  王丹丹  袁艺  郝明月 《地球科学进展》2015,30(5):530-538

以《特别重大自然灾害损失统计制度》(简称《统计制度》)主要执笔人的视角,详细阐述了制度的主要内容、蕴含的科学问题和未来研究方向。《统计制度》报表和指标设计在与现有国家标准保持一致、历经汶川地震等多次重特大灾害实践检验完善、充分吸收相关行业部门意见和建议、适用于多灾种与灾害链损失统计、实用于灾后恢复重建规划编制等方面均体现出其权威性与最新性,《统计制度》具备科学性、综合性、实用性和动态性等特征。《统计制度》在推进特别重大自然灾害损失综合评估、启发涉灾行业部门开展专项深入研究、引领地方建立相关制度等方面具有极大潜力。  相似文献   

Supporting USLE‐MM reliability by analyzing soil loss measurement errors          下载免费PDF全文

Vincenzo Bagarello  Vito Ferro 《水文研究》2017,31(4):847-853

Sampling the collected suspension in a storage tank is a common procedure to obtain soil loss data. A calibration curve of the tank has to be used to obtain actual concentration values from those measured by sampling. However, literature suggests that using a tank calibration curve was not a common procedure in the past. For the clay soil of the Sparacia (Italy) experimental station, this investigation aimed to establish a link between the relative performances of the USLE‐M and USLE‐MM models, usable to predict plot soil loss at the event temporal scale, and soil loss measurement errors. Using all available soil loss data, lower soil loss prediction errors were obtained with the USLE‐MM (exponent of the erosivity term, b₁ > 1) than the USLE‐M (b₁ = 1). A systematic error of the soil loss data is unexpected for the Sparacia soil because the calibration curve does not depend on the water level in the tank. In any case, this type of error does not have any effect on the b₁ exponent. Instead, this exponent decreases as the level of underestimation increases for increasing soil loss values. This type of error can occur at Sparacia if it is assumed that a soil loss measurement can be obtained by a bottle sampler dipped close to the bottom of the tank after mixing the suspension and assuming that the measured concentration coincides with the actual one. In this case, the risk is to obtain a lower b₁ value than the actual one. In conclusion, additional investigations on the factors determining errors in soil loss data collected by a sampling procedure are advisable because these errors can have a noticeable effect on the calibrated empirical models for soil loss prediction.  相似文献   

武汉市"2016.07.06"暴雨洪涝灾害跨区域经济波及效应评估研究     

张正涛  崔鹏  李宁  刘远  邹强  黄承芳  吴圣楠 《气候变化研究进展》2020,16(4):433-441

为强调跨区域经济波及损失的重要程度,在已构建的灾害动态间接经济损失评估模型的基础上,本研究进一步融入多区域模块改进模型,定量评估武汉市“2016.07.06”暴雨洪涝灾害对湖北省、全国造成的波及损失。结果表明：(1)灾区外遭受的跨区域经济波及损失（24.30亿元）为武汉遭受直接经济损失（87.40亿元）的28%,是灾区武汉市遭受间接经济损失（5.55亿元）的4.4倍,其中湖北省（除武汉市外）受到的经济波及损失为15.57亿元,全国（除湖北省外）为8.73亿元;(2)灾区外制造业受到的波及损失最大,其中湖北省（除武汉外）受损6.52亿元,全国（除湖北省外）受损2.94亿元,分别占各自总波及损失的42%与34%。其他受损行业依次为农业、其他服务业、建筑业等。建议政府决策者保持对跨区域经济波及损失的关注,通过认清损失产生机理制定有针对性的减小损失措施,开展更科学、全面的风险防范与灾后恢复重建。  相似文献   

土地利用空间数据尺度转换中的精度损失分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

赵磊  孟淑英 《国土资源遥感》2009,(2):45-48,53

在地理信息系统的支持下,利用两种矢栅转换原则对土地利用空间数据进行尺度转换,并对不同栅格大小下,各种土地利用类型的精度损失特征进行了分析.研究结果表明: (1)面积最大值原则(RMA)下,栅格大小< 80 m时,其精度损失均< 2%; 中心值原则(RCC)下,栅格大小< 160 m时,其精度损失均< 2%.(2)在栅格大小为800 m时,水域在面积最大值原则下的精度损失超过50%,在中心值原则下的精度损失超过20%.(3)在空间粒度逐渐增大过程中,面积最大值原则下生成的栅格数据相对误差较大,各地类精度损失的绝对值与栅格大小之间成正相关; 中心值原则下,各地类的相对误差较小且复相关系数均很小,表现出很强的随机性.  相似文献   

Estimation of non-point source pollution loads under uncertain information   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ruzhong Li 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2008,18(4):348-355

Many kinds of uncertainties are involved, such as random, fuzzy, grey, unascertained property and so on, in soil erosion process. To exactly predict the non-point source pollution loads, some uncertainties should be taken into consideration. Aiming at the deficiency of present blind number theory being helpless for fuzziness, a novel blind number, i.e. extended-blind number, was introduced by substituting a set of triangular fuzzy numbers （TFNs）, expressed as a-cuts, for interval values in present blind number, and the expected value of extended-blind number was also brought forward by referring to the current blind number theory. On the basis of denoting the parameters of Uni- versal Soil Loss Equation （USLE） as extended-blind parameters, a novel USLE model was established for quantitatively evaluating soil erosion loss and non-point source pollution loads. As a case, the uncertain USLE was employed for predicting the soil erosion loss and non-point source pollution loads of absorbed nitrogen and phosphorus in a dis- trict in the Hangbu-Fengle River basin, in the upstream of Chaohu Lake watershed. The results show that it is feasible in theory to extend blind number into fuzzy environment and reliable on conclusion to apply extended-blind number theory for predicting non-point source pollution loads.  相似文献   

赤潮影响下的滨海旅游环境价值损失评估   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

刘希真  宋琍琍  陈思杨  余骏  马佳斌  刘瑞娟  林雨霏 《海洋开发与管理》2019,36(11):53-58

浙江海域是全国赤潮的高发区域之一,赤潮多次影响海水养殖区、滨海旅游区等近岸敏感海域。赤潮发生时,不但海水变色影响景观美感,还会产生大量泡沫和腥臭气,严重影响滨海旅游区的休闲娱乐功能。文章运用条件价值评估法(CVM),通过调查问卷的方式获得象山松兰山海滨浴场及周边区域的游客对赤潮灾害治理的支付意愿(WTP),间接估算出,2017年象山海域受赤潮影响滨海旅游环境价值损失为9 662.4万元,占象山县全年旅游总收入的0.4%。在此基础上,通过多元线性回归分析及显著性检验得到,影响游客支付意愿的因素主要为赤潮对滨海景观的影响程度和游客对赤潮的认知度。本次调查评估客观反映了象山县滨海游客对赤潮治理支付意愿的大致程度,量化评估了赤潮对滨海旅游业造成的价值损失,研究结果可作为评估赤潮灾害对滨海旅游业造成经济损失的依据。  相似文献   

Earthquake risk and its mitigation in Istanbul     

Mustafa Erdik  Eser Durukal 《Natural Hazards》2008,44(2):181-197

Physical and societal vulnerability to earthquakes and expected physical, social, economic, and industrial losses in Istanbul are outlined. This risk quantification has served as the basis for the Earthquake Masterplan. Risk-mitigation activity that was, and is, being conducted by several agencies and in different context and sectors are elaborated.  相似文献   

线圈释放式温、盐、深探头运动特性的数值计算方法研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

黄银水  陶建华 《海洋技术学报》2003,22(1):45-48

线圈释放式温、盐、深探头从空中定点投放，入水后测量海洋不同海水层面上的温度和盐度，因此必须知识探头各个时刻的入水距离，以与获得的温、盐数据对应。本文对其运动特性进行了数值计算，并在计算中考虑了探头质量和排水体积的变化。利用已有的形状完全相同但不释放线圈的探头实验资料，拟合出了探头在海水中的阻力系数与雷诺数的关系式。并且分析了探头入水瞬间速度损失的影响。  相似文献   

Using GIS-based distributed soil loss modeling and morphometric analysis to prioritize watershed for soil conservation in Bago river basin of Lower Myanmar   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kay Thwe Hlaing  Shigeko Haruyama  Maung Maung Aye 《Frontiers of Earth Science》2008,2(4):465-478

Bago River is an important river in Myanmar. Although shorter than other rivers, it has its own river system, and people along the river rely heavily on it for their daily lives. The upper part of the watershed has changed rapidly from closed forest to open forest land in the 1990s. Since the recent degradation of the forest environment, annual flooding has become worse during the rainy season in Bago City. This paper aims at determining soil conservation prioritization of watershed based on soil loss due to erosion and morphometric analysis in the Bago Watershed by integrating remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. In this study, soil erosion of the Bago watershed was determined using the Universal Soil Loss Equation. Such factormaps as rainfall, soil erodibility, slope length gradient, and crop management were compiled as input parameters for the modeling; and the soil loss from 26 sub-watersheds were estimated. Then, the soil erosion maps of the Bago watershed for 2005 were developed. The resulting Soil Loss Tolerance Map could be utilized in developing watershed management planning, forestry management planning, etc.  相似文献   

One thousand ways to experience loss: A systematic analysis of climate-related intangible harm from around the world     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

A situated and socially engaged science of loss arising from climate change takes people’s lived experiences with risk and harm as its fundamental starting point. It foregrounds what losses occur, where and how, which of these losses matter most to people and why, and whether or not such losses are considered acceptable and potentially reversible. However, obtaining such insight is difficult if the many things people value, across space and time, are intangible, i.e. they cannot and perhaps should not be quantified, and hence are often overlooked and omitted. This is the case, for instance, for the symbolic and affective dimensions of culture and place, such as sense of belonging, personal and collective notions of identity, and ways of knowing and making sense of the world, all of which are already undermined by climate change. Here, we perform the first systematic comparative analysis of people-centered and place-specific experiences with climate-related harm to people’s values that are largely intangible and non-commensurable. We draw upon >100 published case studies from around the world to make visible and concrete what matters most to people and what is at stake in the context of climate-related hazards and impacts. We show that the same threats can produce vastly different outcomes, ranging from reversible damages to irreversible losses and anticipated future risks, across numerous value dimensions, for indigenous and non-indigenous families, communities, and countries at all levels of development. Through this analysis, we also empirically validate dimensions of harm that have been produced and reproduced in the literature, albeit often devoid of distinct substance, lived experiences, and intrinsic significance. We end by discussing ethical implications of the ‘one thousand ways’ to encounter harm and offer recommendations to overcome methodological challenges in advancing a science of loss grounded in place.  相似文献