排序方式： 共有23条查询结果，搜索用时 0 毫秒
21.
2020年发生在江淮流域,朝鲜半岛和日本南部(简称梅雨区)的暴力梅造成了巨大的人员伤亡和经济损失.此次暴力梅的主要特征为:入梅早(6月1日),出梅晚(8月1日)以及较强的梅雨期降水.2020年异常早入梅和晚出梅时期的降水占梅雨期总降水的一半以上.因此,为了深入解析2020暴力梅的机制,本文将分析2020异常早入梅和晚出... 相似文献
22.
23.
Extreme Mei-yu rainfall (MYR) can cause catastrophic impacts to the economic development and societal welfare in China. While significant improvements have been made in climate models, they often struggle to simulate local-to-regional extreme rainfall (e.g., MYR). Yet, large-scale climate modes (LSCMs) are relatively well represented in climate models. Since there exists a close relationship between MYR and various LSCMs, it might be possible to develop causality-guided statistical models for MYR prediction based on LSCMs. These statistical models could then be applied to climate model simulations to improve the representation of MYR in climate models. In this pilot study, it is demonstrated that skillful causality-guided statistical models for MYR can be constructed based on known LSCMs. The relevancy of the selected predictors for statistical models are found to be consistent with the literature. The importance of temporal resolution in constructing statistical models for MYR is also shown and is in good agreement with the literature. The results demonstrate the reliability of the causality-guided approach in studying complex circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Some limitations and possible improvements of the current approach are discussed. The application of the causality-guided approach opens up a new possibility to uncover the complex interactions in the EASM in future studies. 相似文献