Climate change sensitivity assessment of streamflow and agricultural pollutant transport in California's Central Valley using Latin hypercube sampling     

Darren L. Ficklin  Yuzhou Luo  Minghua Zhang 《水文研究》2013,27(18):2666-2675

Bracketing the uncertainty of streamflow and agricultural runoff under climate change is critical for proper future water resource management in agricultural watersheds. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in conjunction with a Latin hypercube climate change sampling algorithm to construct a 95% confidence interval (95CI) around streamflow, sediment load, and nitrate load predictions under changes in climate for the Sacramento and San Joaquin River watersheds in California's Central Valley. The Latin hypercube algorithm sampled 2000 combinations of precipitation and temperature changes based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections from multiple General Circulation Models. Average monthly percent changes of the upper and lower 95CI limits compared to the present‐day simulation and a statistic termed the “r‐factor” (average width of the 95CI band divided by the standard deviation of the 95CI bandwidth) were used to assess watershed sensitivities. 95CI results indicate that streamflow and sediment runoff in the Sacramento River watershed are more likely to decrease under climate change compared to present‐day conditions, whereas the increase and decrease for nitrate runoff were found to be equal. For the San Joaquin River watershed, streamflow slightly decreased under climate change, whereas sediment and nitrate runoff increased compared to present‐day climate. Comparisons of watershed sensitivities indicate that the San Joaquin River watershed is more sensitive to climate changes than the Sacramento River watershed, which is largely caused by the high density of agricultural land. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal changes in aridity index in northwest China: 1960 to 2010   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Xiaomang Liu  Dan Zhang  Yuzhou Luo  Changming Liu 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,112(1-2):307-316

Northwest China is the driest region in China and the regional climate fluctuated dramatically during the last century. Aridity index, as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation, is a good indicator to represent regional climate character. In this study, the change and attribution of the aridity index was investigated in northwest China using the observed climate data from 80 national meteorological stations during 1960–2010. The spatial and temporal variabilities of the aridity index shows that the annual aridity index decreased significantly (P?<?0.05) by 0.048 year^?1, indicating that northwest China became wetter from 1960 to 2010. A differentiation equation method was used to attribute the change in aridity index to climate variables. The results indicate that the aridity index was most sensitive to the change in precipitation, followed by vapor pressure, solar radiation, wind speed, and air temperature. Increase in air temperature should have led to an increase in aridity index, but this effect had been offset by the increase in precipitation and vapor pressure and the decrease in wind speed. Increasing precipitation, which contributed 91.7 % of the decrease in the aridity index, was the dominant factor to the decrease in the aridity index in northwest China from 1960 to 2010.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in Haihe River Basin,China: six decades of measurements   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Zhonggen Wang  Yuzhou Luo  Changming Liu  Jun Xia  Minghua Zhang 《水文研究》2011,25(18):2916-2923

This study aims to determine temporal trends and spatial distribution of the annual and monthly precipitation in the Haihe River Basin, China, during 1951–2008. A significant decreasing trend was observed for the annual precipitation, mainly attributed to the abrupt decrease in the flood‐season precipitation (June–September) around the year of 1979. No significant trend was revealed for precipitation within Period I of 1951–1979 and Period II of 1980–2008. Results of this study indicated that the relative contributions of the flood‐season precipitation decreased temporally with time and spatially with elevation. This study also identified a potential movement of storm centers from east to west portions of the basin. In addition, analysis on the precipitation anomalies also suggested a redistribution of the non‐flood season precipitation over the study area. Compared with the west portion of the basin, generally, the east received relatively more precipitation during the non‐flood season, while similar trend of precipitation redistribution was not observed in the flood season. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

对地理国情监测的战略思考     

阮于洲 《测绘软科学研究》2014,(2):40-43

结合近年来地理国情监测理论研究和工作实践取得的进展和成果,对地理国情监测的战略定位和实现途径作了进一步思考。结果表明,作为测绘地理信息发展的战略重点提出来的地理国情监测,其功能定位不应当仅仅局限于类似基础测绘的保障服务功能,而应将其定位为类似监察、审计等的监督管理功能。而要实现这一战略定位,需要采取相应的策略和步骤,从地理国情监测、监督向监管稳步推进,逐渐实现地理国情监测的价值,最终实现测绘地理信息发展方式的根本性转变。  相似文献   

On the compression behavior of remolded cement-admixed soft clay     

Yuzhou Jiang  Shengjie Di 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2018,36(3):323-330

Although extensive research has been performed on the mechanical properties of cement-stabilized clays, quite a few attempts have been made on the compression behavior of remolded cement-admixed clays. The results from oedometer tests have been discussed to investigate the compressibility of remolded cement-admixed clays, taking into consideration cement amount and curing time. The findings show that the difference in shape and position of compression curves is attributed to cement amount and curing time. Most compression index (C_c) values of remolded cement-admixed clays are greater than those of untreated clay due to the presence of remolded yield stress σ′_yr that is closely related to initial water content and clay fabric. Based on the obtained test data, the relationships of C_c vs. e₀, C_c vs. w₀, C_c vs. e₁, C_c vs. e_yr, and σ′_yr vs. e_yr are preliminarily discussed and quantitatively established. Especially, an important divergence of void index I_v at effective stress σ′_v less than remolded yield stress σ′_yr can be observed at different cement amounts and curing durations. Being independent on cement amount, curing time, and initial state of soil, an excellent convergence occurs at stress σ′_v greater than yield stress σ′_yr. The normalized compression curves of I_v vs. σ′_v at σ′_v?>?σ′_y can be expressed by a unique line that agrees well with intrinsic compression line (ICL) and extended ICL.  相似文献   

一次影响河南的西南涡演变及造成的暴雨分析     

魏璐  鲁坦  张楠  朱玉周  郭学峰 《气象与环境科学》2010,33(Z1)

利用MICAPS和NCEP1°×1°再分析资料,对一次典型东北路径移动西南涡演变及产生的致洪暴雨进行研究.通过对低涡的生成源地、环流特征、移动路径、强度变化、生命史及所形成暴雨过程进行分析,指出影响低涡致洪暴雨的天气系统配置,为影响河南地区的低涡及致洪暴雨预报提供依据.  相似文献   

2008年7月13-14日郑州市强对流天气成因分析     

侯春梅  张晓娟  刘和平  朱玉周  王红兴 《气象与环境科学》2009,32(Z1)

利用高空、地面观测资料及多普勒天气雷达产品,对2008年7月13-14日郑州地区的一次强对流暴雨天气过程,从影响系统、物理量场及雷达回波等方面进行了分析,结果表明:高空东移的西风槽和副热带高压边缘的暖湿气流为此次强降水提供了有利的大尺度环流背景;地面偏东气流为降水输送了充足的水汽;低层辐合、高层辐散的强烈上升运动为降水的发生提供了动力条件.  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地西北缘早—中侏罗世延安期碎屑锆石LA-ICP-MS定年及其物源意义     

赵红格  刘池洋  王海然  高少华  李蒙  卓鱼周  乔建新  张孙玄琦  蒋盛 《地学前缘》2015,(3):184-193

鄂尔多斯盆地西北部延安期地层分布广泛,其周缘同期地层分布零星,不同地区岩性具有一定的相似性,对该时期的盆地沉积边界和物源属性还存在争议。文中利用锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb测年和地球化学分析方法,探讨了西北部不同地区延安期的物源时代和性质。本次在贺兰山和桌子山地区共测试锆石年龄210个,获得193个有效的单颗粒碎屑锆石年龄。贺兰山地区大部分碎屑锆石阴极发光图像具有环带结构,且具左倾式稀土元素分布模式,大部分Th/U值大于0.4,表明锆石来源以岩浆为主,变质为次。锆石年龄绝大部分为古生代(集中于二叠纪),其次为元古宙。桌子山地区碎屑锆石具有与贺兰山相似的阴极发光和稀土元素分布特征,但碎屑锆石年龄分布差别较大。其中大部分锆石年龄(66.7%)分布于新太古代—元古宙(集中于元古宙),其次为二叠纪(22.7%)和早—中三叠世(10.6%)。通过与周缘古老地层的年龄对比认为,鄂尔多斯盆地西北部早中侏罗世延安期的沉积物源,贺兰山地区可能主要来自其西侧的阿拉善地块海西期岩浆岩,其次为西北部元古宙岩浆岩和变质岩(贺兰山群);桌子山地区可能主要为其西北部元古宙岩浆岩和变质岩,其次为海西期岩浆岩和早—中三叠世岩浆岩。早—中侏罗世延安期西缘贺兰山地区和桌子山、磁窑堡等地区的物源年龄具有一定的相似性,但仍然存在差异,需要借助于岩石学和沉积学方面的证据进一步精细刻画其物源属性。  相似文献   

将高精度地理信息获取作为基础测绘重要战略任务的思考     

王维  阮于洲  王晨阳 《测绘通报》2021,(6):143-146

高精度地理信息具有提供更高空间定位精度和更强空间关系表达能力的优势。“十四五”期间,高精度地理信息获取作为基础测绘重要战略任务,其相关成果将为经济社会发展和自然资源综合管理提供更好的空间参考依据。本文从高精度地理信息的获取进展出发,分析了高精度地理信息产品的需求形势和对基础测绘服务能力的提升作用,以及高精度地理信息获取和产品提供过程中遇到的问题,提出了提升高精度地理信息获取和产品提供能力的相关建议。  相似文献   

A j, υ model for the analysis and prediction of tides     

Chen Zongyong  Huang Zuke  Zhou Tianhu  Tang Enxiang  Wang Yuzhou 《海洋学报(英文版)》1990,9(4):475-486

In this paper, the j, υ corrected formulae of the amplitudes and the phases of 58 astronomical constituents are given, and the models for the analysis and prediction of 169 constituents are presented. The new Cartwright's calculated results of the tidal potential are used, and the quadratic analysis is made. It has been proved by a number of trials that the harmonic constants of constituents are more stable and the accuracy of the predicted result reliable.  相似文献