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2011年6月-8月渤海湾溢油事故长期后报数值模拟 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
三维业务化溢油应急预报系统不仅能提供逐时的海洋环境信息预报和溢油漂移扩散,还能对溢油事件进行后报数值模拟。2011年6月4日在渤海湾蓬莱19-3B采油平台发生溢油事件,同月17日19-3C平台也发生溢油事件。此次溢油事故造成了数千平方公里海水受污染。本文采用国家海洋环境预报中心自主研发的溢油模型对蓬莱19-3溢油事件进行长期后报数值模拟,在风流海洋环境场的驱动下,模拟了2016年6月到2016年8月,两个平台溢油的漂移扩散情况、影响范围,靠岸时间和影响岸段等。风场采用基于WRF模型模拟得到的再分析风场,并用实测风对再分析风场进行订正,流场采用基于POM模式在再分析风场驱动下得到的海流。后报结果显示,溢油主要向西北方向漂移,并最终靠岸,其扫过的海域也主要在平台的西北方向,这与观测结果一致,验证了后报的可靠性。 相似文献
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东中国海碳循环时空变化特征:三维物理-生物地球化学数值模型研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
In the east of China's seas, there is a wide range of the continental shelf. The nutrient cycle and the carbon cycle in the east of China's seas exhibit a strong variability on seasonal to decadal time scales. On the basis of a regional ocean modeling system(ROMS), a three dimensional physical-biogeochemical model including the carbon cycle with the resolution(1/12)°×(1/12)° is established to investigate the physical variations, ecosystem responses and carbon cycle consequences in the east of China's seas. The ROMS-Nutrient Phytoplankton Zooplankton Detritus(NPZD) model is driven by daily air-sea fluxes(wind stress, long wave radiation, short wave radiation, sensible heat and latent heat, freshwater fluxes) that derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) reanalysis2 from 1982 to 2005. The coupled model is capable of reproducing the observed seasonal variation characteristics over the same period in the East China Sea. The integrated air-sea CO_2 flux over the entire east of China's seas reveals a strong seasonal cycle, functioning as a source of CO_2 to the atmosphere from June to October, while serving as a sink of CO_2 to the atmosphere in the other months. The 24 a mean value of airsea CO_2 flux over the entire east of China's seas is about 1.06 mol/(m~2·a), which is equivalent to a regional total of3.22 Mt/a, indicating that in the east of China's seas there is a sink of CO_2 to the atmosphere. The partial pressure of carbon dioxide in sea water in the east of China's seas has an increasing rate of 1.15 μatm/a(1μtm/a=0.101 325Pa), but p H in sea water has an opposite tendency, which decreases with a rate of 0.001 3 a~(–1) from 1982 to 2005.Biological activity is a dominant factor that controls the pCO_2 air in the east of China's seas, and followed by a temperature. The inverse relationship between the interannual variability of air-sea CO_2 flux averaged from the domain area and Ni?o3 SST Index indicates that the carbon cycle in the east of China's seas has a high correlation with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). 相似文献
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中国近海生态动力学模型参数敏感性研究 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
In order to develop a coupled basin scale model of ocean circulation and biogeochemical cycling,we present a biogeochemical model including 12 components to study the ecosystem in the China coastal seas(CCS).The formulation of phytoplankton mortality and zooplankton growth are modified according to biological characteristics of CCS.The four sensitivity biological parameters,zooplankton assimilation efficiency rate(ZooAE_N),zooplankton basal metabolism rate(ZooBM),maximum specific growth rate of zooplankton(μ_(20)) and maximum chlorophyll to carbon ratio(Chl2C_m) are obtained in sensitivity experiments for the phytoplankton,and experiments about the parameter μ_(20'),half-saturation for phytoplankton NO_3 uptake(K_(NO_3)) and remineralization rate of small detritusN(SDeRRN) are conducted.The results demonstrate that the biogeochemical model is quite sensitive to the zooplankton grazing parameter when it ranges from 0.1 to 1.2 d~(-1).The K_(NO_3) and SDeRRN also play an important role in determining the nitrogen cycle within certain ranges.The sensitive interval of KNO_3 is from 0.1 to 1.5(mmol/m~3)~(-1),and interval of SEdRRN is from 0.01 and 0.1 d~(-1).The observational data from September 1998 to July 2000 obtained at SEATS station are used to validate the performance of biological model after parameters optimization.The results show that the modified model has a good capacity to reveal the biological process features,and the sensitivity analysis can save computational resources greatly during the model simulation. 相似文献
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基于黄、东海Lagrange环流数值模型 ,对黄、东海Lagrange斜压环流进行了诊断计算。采用流速分解法将La grange流速分解为梯度流、风海流、潮致余流、热盐环流、零阶环流耦合流 5种分量 ,实现三维计算的准二维化。计算结果较成功地模拟了冬夏两季黄、东海Lagrange环流 ,表明密度环流在冬、夏季均是东海环流的重要分量 ,可显著增强了东海黑潮、东海黑潮、台湾暖流和对马暖流 ;在夏季还是黄海环流的主要分量。 相似文献
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中国大陆海岸线近30 a的时空变化分析 总被引：8，自引：5，他引：3
基于遥感和地理信息系统的方法与技术,以1980、1990、2000和2010年4个时期为特征年,对近30年来我国大陆海岸线时空变化特征进行了分析研究。结果显示:（1）海岸类型转化显著,人工岸线所占比例由1980年的24.6%上升到2010年的56.1%;（2）海岸线变化呈现显著区域特征,变化较剧烈的区域集中在珠江口岸段、长江口-杭州湾岸段、海州湾-吕四段、滦河口-潍河口段及辽河口-葫芦岛港段;（3）3个时期相比,海岸开发由早期的围垦养殖向后期的城镇建设和海洋运输开发方式转变,并且这种转换方式在南方早于北方。 相似文献
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渤海、黄海、东海潮流、潮能通量与耗散的数值模拟研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
基于ROMS海洋数值模式,对渤海、黄海、东海的潮汐、潮流进行数值模拟,模拟结果与91个沿岸验潮站的实测结果拟合较好。研究表明,渤、黄、东海内的潮波以半日潮为主,共有4个半日潮、2个全日潮和1个退化的半日潮旋转潮波系统,且都呈逆时针方向旋转;渤海的半日潮流主要呈顺时针方向旋转,全日潮流呈逆时针方向旋转,黄海的潮流以逆时针旋转为主,东海、朝鲜海峡潮流以顺时针旋转为主;半日分潮流共有13个圆流点,K1(O1)分潮流有10(9)个圆流点,但全日潮流的同潮时线分布较为复杂;太平洋传入东海的4个主要分潮潮能通量分别为118.341GW、19.525GW、5.630GW、3.871GW,一半以上的潮能耗散在南黄海,30%—40%的潮能耗散在东海,其次是北黄海,而渤海最小。 相似文献
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The effects of sea surface temperature(SST) data assimilation in two regional ocean modeling systems were examined for the Yellow Sea(YS). The SST data from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis(OSTIA) were assimilated. The National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center(NMEFC) modeling system uses the ensemble optimal interpolation method for ocean data assimilation and the Kunsan National University(KNU) modeling system uses the ensemble Kalman filter. Without data assimilation, the NMEFC modeling system was better in simulating the subsurface temperature while the KNU modeling system was better in simulating SST. The disparity between both modeling systems might be related to differences in calculating the surface heat flux, horizontal grid spacing, and atmospheric forcing data. The data assimilation reduced the root mean square error(RMSE) of the SST from 1.78°C(1.46°C) to 1.30°C(1.21°C) for the NMEFC(KNU) modeling system when the simulated temperature was compared to Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature(OISST) SST dataset. A comparison with the buoy SST data indicated a 41%(31%) decrease in the SST error for the NMEFC(KNU) modeling system by the data assimilation. In both data assimilative systems, the RMSE of the temperature was less than 1.5°C in the upper 20 m and approximately 3.1°C in the lower layer in October. In contrast, it was less than 1.0°C throughout the water column in February. This study suggests that assimilations of the observed temperature profiles are necessary in order to correct the lower layer temperature during the stratified season and an ocean modeling system with small grid spacing and optimal data assimilation method is preferable to ensure accurate predictions of the coastal ocean in the YS. 相似文献