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In this paper a statistical forecasting model designed for bounded areas of near-surface ocean wind speeds is implemented.Dimension reduction is achieved by decomposing the covariance structure into one large-scale and one small-scale component using empirical orthogonal functions. The large-scale component is modelled with an AR process and forecasts are calculated by applying a Kalman filter.The model is suited for stable weather situations as for unsteady situations it requires more frequent wind information. From the prediction variance fields it is possible to identify where unexpected weather usually enters the area. 相似文献
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玛纳斯地震前后地震活动信息熵及分维的动态变化 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
根据耗散结构理论及Mandelbort提出的分形几何学观点,研究了玛纳斯5.8级地震前后地震(M_s≥1.5)序列的时空分布特征、地震活动信息熵及分维的动态变化。发现玛纳斯5.8级地震前存在减熵和降维。认为,地震熵或分维可以定量描述地震时空分布变化过程,并量度变化过程从无序向有序的演化。 相似文献
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球坐标系下三维射线追踪的方法和应用 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
作者在文中详细地论述了适用于任意曲线坐标系的射线追踪系统的建立和重要公式的推导,并给出了该追踪系统在球坐标系下的具体应用,讨论了理论模型和实际三维模型下的射线追踪效果,球坐标三维射球追踪结果表明,该方法和弯曲法相比能更精确地反映介质的速度分布情况以及地震波在介质中的传播情况。 相似文献
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分维理论在水氡分析中的应用 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
利用重建动力学相空间的方法，通过对水氡时间序列计算其关联维数，处理了北京管庄井１９７４－１９７８年。四川姑咱泉１９７４－１９７８年及云南洱源井１９７８－１９８２年水氡日均值资料。结果表明水氡时间序列具有分数结构，在正常情况下，其吸引子维数在５．５０左右。并且发现在地震前降维变化。显然这种降维变化对地震预报是有意义的。 相似文献
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High-resolution geologic models that incorporate observed state data are expected to effectively enhance the reliability of reservoir performance prediction. One of the major challenges faced is how to solve the large-scale inverse modeling problem, i.e., to infer high-resolution models from the given observations of state variables that are related to the model parameters according to some known physical rules, e.g., the flow and transport partial differential equations. There are typically two difficulties, one is the high-dimensional problem and the other is the inverse problem. A multiscale inverse method is presented in this work to attack these problems with the aid of a gradient-based optimization algorithm. In this method, the model responses (i.e., the simulated state data) can be efficiently computed from the high-resolution model using the multiscale finite-volume method. The mismatch between the observations and the multiscale solutions is then used to define a proper objective function, and the fine-scale sensitivity coefficients (i.e., the derivatives of the objective function with respect to each node’s attribute) are computed by a multiscale adjoint method for subsequent optimization. The difficult high-dimensional optimization problem is reduced to a one-dimensional one using the gradient-based gradual deformation method. A synthetic single-phase transient flow example problem is employed to illustrate the proposed method. Results demonstrate that the multiscale framework presented is not only computationally efficient but also can generate geologically consistent models. By preserving spatial structure for inverse modeling, the method presented overcomes the artifacts introduced by the multiscale simulation and may enhance the prediction ability of the inverse-conditional realizations generated. 相似文献
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介绍了自适应对消技术的基本原理,分析了自适应对消技术的优缺点,针对一些缺点提出了相应的改进方法。由于常规自适应对消技术是通过迭代技术实现的,需要迭代一定次数后才能确定最佳参数,所以在信号起始位置和有效信号尾部收敛效果不好,从而影响滤波效果。引入hausdorff维数来约束地震信号,首先求取原始地震信号的hausdorff维数谱,利用有效信号与随机噪音维数的不同,将有效信号以外的随机噪音滤除,并将自适应对消中的参考噪声对应位置的随机噪音去除;然后将更新后的地震信号和参考噪声进行自适应滤波,从而得到一个优化的自适应对消滤波器。 相似文献
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集合降维变分同化方法ERDVar不需要求解切线性模式和伴随模式，不仅能减少同化计算量，而且能够提供“流依赖”的背景误差协方差矩阵。本文提出用NMC初始扰动生成方法和分区同化方案，来解决初始扰动样本生成问题和全球同化局地化问题，最终实现将ERDVar应用到全球中期数值预报模式T106L19。试验结果表明：①使用ERDVar方法能够有效提取真实增量信息，提高全球同化精度。②用NMC方法产生的扰动样本反映预报误差结构特征，在预报过程中不容易衰减，同化后至少使预报误差降低10%。③与全球ERDVar同化试验相比，分区ERDVar同化试验各变量平均的均方根误差降低14%，计算代价进一步降低。分区ERDVar方法和NMC样本的联合应用使同化改进效果更稳定。 相似文献