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31.
Evaluation of Mixing-Height Retrievals from Automatic Profiling Lidars and Ceilometers in View of Future Integrated Networks in Europe 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
M. Haeffelin F. Angelini Y. Morille G. Martucci S. Frey G. P. Gobbi S. Lolli C. D. O’Dowd L. Sauvage I. Xueref-Rémy B. Wastine D. G. Feist 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2012,143(1):49-75
The determination of the depth of daytime and nighttime mixing layers must be known very accurately to relate boundary-layer concentrations of gases or particles to upstream fluxes. The mixing-height is parametrized in numerical weather prediction models, so improving the determination of the mixing height will improve the quality of the estimated gas and particle budgets. Datasets of mixing-height diurnal cycles with high temporal and spatial resolutions are sought by various end users. Lidars and ceilometers provide vertical profiles of backscatter from aerosol particles. As aerosols are predominantly concentrated in the mixing layer, lidar backscatter profiles can be used to trace the depth of the mixing layer. Large numbers of automatic profiling lidars and ceilometers are deployed by meteorological services and other agencies in several European countries providing systems to monitor the mixing height on temporal and spatial scales of unprecedented density. We investigate limitations and capabilities of existing mixing height retrieval algorithms by applying five different retrieval techniques to three different lidars and ceilometers deployed during two 1-month campaigns. We studied three important steps in the mixing height retrieval process, namely the lidar/ceilometer pre-processing to reach sufficient signal-to-noise ratio, gradient detection techniques to find the significant aerosol gradients, and finally quality control and layer attribution to identify the actual mixing height from multiple possible layer detections. We found that layer attribution is by far the most uncertain step. We tested different gradient detection techniques, and found no evidence that the first derivative, wavelet transform, and two-dimensional derivative techniques have different skills to detect one or multiple significant aerosol gradients from lidar and ceilometer attenuated backscatter. However, our study shows that, when mixing height retrievals from a ultraviolet lidar and a near-infrared ceilometer agreed, they were 25?C40% more likely to agree with an independent radiosonde mixing height retrieval than when each lidar or ceilometer was used alone. Furthermore, we point to directions that may assist the layer attribution step, for instance using commonly available surface measurements of radiation and temperature to derive surface sensible heat fluxes as a proxy for the intensity of convective mixing. It is a worthwhile effort to pursue such studies so that within a few years automatic profiling lidar and ceilometer networks can be utilized efficiently to monitor mixing heights at the European scale. 相似文献
32.
Fracture network modeling is an essential part of the design, development and performance assessment of Enhanced Geothermal Systems. These systems are created from geothermal resources, usually located several kilometers below the surface of the Earth, by establishing a network of connected fractures through which fluid can flow. The depth of the reservoir makes it impossible to make direct measurements of fractures and data are collected from indirect measurements such as geophysical surveys. An important source of indirect data is the seismic event point cloud generated by the fracture stimulation process. Locations of these points are estimated from recorded micro-seismic signals generated by fracture initiation, propagation and slip. This point cloud can be expressed as a set of three-dimensional coordinates with attributes, for example Se ijk ={(x,y,z);?a|x,y,z∈R,?a∈I}. We describe two methods for reconstructing realistic fracture trace lines and planes given the point cloud of seismic events data: Enhanced Brute-Force Search and RANSAC. The methods have been tested on a synthetic data set and on the Habanero data set of Geodynamics’ geothermal project in the Cooper Basin of South Australia. Our results show that the RANSAC method is an efficient and suitable method for the conditional simulation of fracture networks. 相似文献
33.
The paper reviews a number of possible fast and slow hydrological flow mechanisms to account for rapid runoff generation within a catchment. A new interpretation of the kinematic wave process is proposed which develops some of these concepts to explain rapid subsurface flow from a watershed. Evidence for the process is provided by the results from a laboratory soil core experiment and an investigation of the hydrology of a Dartmoor hillslope. A tension response was monitored in the soil core in which pressure waves were propagated downwards and expelled water from the base. The transmission of the wave down the core was considerably faster than the movement of a chloride tracer. The concept of this kinematic wave process and associated water flux was then extended to the Dartmoor watershed. Raindrops reaching the wet soil surface caused pressure waves to travel laterally downslope. During large rainstorms, the hillslope became hydrologically highly connected and the pressure waves forced existing water from seepage faces into the saturated area adjacent to the stream, contributing substantially to the stream discharge. A kinematic contributing area was defined, as determined by both rainfall–runoff ratios and geostatistical analyses of hillslope soil moisture contents, which extended over at least 65% of the catchment area. This kinematic wave theory is consistent with results of translatory flow and macropore flow models, and stable isotope field studies of ‘old/new’ water. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
34.
Metrics of fish production are often used to guide habitat restoration in coastal ecosystems. In this study, we present a general model framework to estimate the absolute production potential of fish (i.e., fish and large decapods) derived from coastal habitats. Production potential represents lifetime production, whether or not the fish uses the habitat of interest for their entire lifespan. The framework uses an age-structured Leslie population matrix with length-dependent survival and fecundity, coupled with growth and length-weight functions. Uncertainty quantification was also included and accounted for parameter dependencies using copulas. Given the limited abundance data available, we made the simplifying assumptions of steady-state populations and a direct scaling of the resultant proportional stable age distribution with observed fish density (in at least one age class). Literature values for regional estimates of mortality and growth were used. We applied our model using data of fish density from seagrass (Zostera marina, eelgrass) beds and bare soft-sediment bottom on the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia, Canada. A total of 22 species of fish was collected. Species-specific estimates of fish production potential from seagrass ranged from 8.6 × 10?3 to 50.0 g WW m?2 year?1, with uncertainty estimates being within the same order of magnitude as the median. Production potential of most fishes was enhanced by seagrass relative to adjacent bare sediment. The model framework can be adapted and extended to include increasing complexity (e.g., time dependencies) as more extensive data are acquired, and thus has application beyond that presented here. 相似文献
35.
S.E. Park N.A. Marshall E. Jakku A.M. Dowd S.M. Howden E. Mendham A. Fleming 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(1):115-126
Transformative actions are increasingly being required to address changes in climate. As an aid to understanding and supporting informed decision-making regarding transformative change, we draw on theories from both the resilience and vulnerability literature to produce the Adaptation Action Cycles concept and applied framework. The resulting Adaptation Action Cycles provides a novel conceptualisation of incremental and transformative adaptation as a continuous process depicted by two concentric and distinct, yet linked, action learning cycles. Each cycle represents four stages in the decision-making process, which are considered to be undertaken over relatively short timeframes. The concept is translated into an applied framework by adopting a contextual, actor-focused suite of questions at each of the four stages. This approach compliments existing theories of transition and transformation by operationalising assessments at the individual and enterprise level. Empirical validation of the concept was conducted by collaborating with members of the Australian wine industry to assess their decisions and actions taken in response to climate change. The contiguous stages represented in the Adaptation Action Cycles aptly reflected the diverse range of decision-making and action pathways taken in recent years by those interviewed. Results suggest that incremental adaptation decision-making processes have distinct characteristics, compared with those used in transformative adaptation. We provide empirical data to support past propositions suggesting dependent relationships operate between incremental and transformative scales of adaptation. 相似文献
36.
One of the uses of geostatistical conditional simulation is as a tool in assessing the spatial uncertainty of inputs to the
Monte Carlo method of system uncertainty analysis. Because the number of experimental data in practical applications is limited,
the geostatistical parameters used in the simulation are themselves uncertain. The inference of these parameters by maximum
likelihood allows for an easy assessment of this estimation uncertainty which, in turn, may be included in the conditional
simulation procedure. A case study based on transmissivity data is presented to show the methodology whereby both model selection
and parameter inference are solved by maximum likelihood. 相似文献
37.
The Second-Order Stationary Universal Kriging Model Revisited 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Universal kriging originally was developed for problems of spatial interpolation if a drift seemed to be justified to model the experimental data. But its use has been questioned in relation to the bias of the estimated underlying variogram (variogram of the residuals), and furthermore universal kriging came to be considered an old-fashioned method after the theory of intrinsic random functions was developed. In this paper the model is reexamined together with methods for handling problems in the inference of parameters. The efficiency of the inference of covariance parameters is shown in terms of bias, variance, and mean square error of the sampling distribution obtained by Monte Carlo simulation for three different estimators (maximum likelihood, bias corrected maximum likelihood, and restricted maximum likelihood). It is shown that unbiased estimates for the covariance parameters may be obtained but if the number of samples is small there can be no guarantee of good estimates (estimates close to the true value) because the sampling variance usually is large. This problem is not specific to the universal kriging model but rather arises in any model where parameters are inferred from experimental data. The validity of the estimates may be evaluated statistically as a risk function as is shown in this paper. 相似文献
38.
Eulogio Pardo-Igúzquiza Peter Dowd Antonio Pulido Bosch Juan A. Luque-Espinar Javier Heredia Juan J. Durán-Valsero 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(8):2617-2627
A mathematical model of a highly heterogeneous functioning karst aquifer is described. The aquifer is in a high-relief karst massif and, as is common for such locations, data are scarce and there are no borehole, piezometer or pumping-test data. The scarcity of data in this case required a parsimonious approach to ensure that the level of complexity of the model was commensurate with the amount, type and quality of the available data. Parsimony also requires the model to include the minimum essential components that account adequately for the data, which in this and similar cases are the functional dualities of the karst system: duality in recharge, flow and discharge. The model is three-dimensional (3D) in the sense that the aquifer is discretized into 3D voxels, although the flow is one-dimensional (1D) and vertical in the vadose zone, and horizontal and two-dimensional (2D) in the saturated zone. The parsimonious model was designed by coupling a 1D unsaturated gravity-driven flow along the vertical (along each column of voxels that discretize the aquifer) and a 2D unconfined Darcy flow in the saturated zone. In the context of this type of aquifer, preferential recharge through the network of karst conduits implies a rapid rise in the water table, the location and extension of which are model parameters. The karst springs are simulated by drains. The methodology, which is completely general, is illustrated by application to the karst aquifer in the Sierra de las Nieves mountains in southern Spain. 相似文献