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排序方式: 共有221条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
31.
利用浙江省2004~2013年3~8月Micaps(气象信息综合分析处理系统)地面填图数据和T-logP数据研究杭州、衢州和台州三市的阵雨和雷雨个例,同时选取能表征雷雨并能区分阵雨与雷雨的气象预报因子:对流有效位能、850 hPa与500 hPa的温差、K指数、地面2 m温度,用临近探空的分析方法和决策树的分类方法初步建立了一个适用于浙江省春夏季降水性质分类指标。利用欧洲中心(ECMWF)细网格预报资料,对历史样本和2016年春、夏季分别作了检验。结果表明:除去有降水预报误差个例后,指标TS(Threat Score)评分超过0.53,雷雨阵雨综合命中率达到71%,空报率阵雨(10%)小于雷雨(43%),在不同地区和季节稍有区别;同时对浙江省2016年春夏两次典型大范围阵雨雷雨过程进行预报,效果很好。此方法不仅可以依据预报数据在短期内做出精细化降水性质分类预报,在中长期预报上也有表现力。 相似文献
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Thomas N. Woods Phillip C. Chamberlin W. K. Peterson R. R. Meier Phil G. Richards Douglas J. Strickland Gang Lu Liying Qian Stanley C. Solomon B. A. Iijima A. J. Mannucci B. T. Tsurutani 《Solar physics》2008,250(2):235-267
Solar soft X-ray (XUV) radiation is highly variable on all time scales and strongly affects Earth’s ionosphere and upper atmosphere;
consequently, the solar XUV irradiance is important for atmospheric studies and for space weather applications. Although there
have been several recent measurements of the solar XUV irradiance, detailed understanding of the solar XUV irradiance, especially
its variability during flares, has been hampered by the broad bands measured in the XUV range. In particular, the simple conversion
of the XUV photometer signal into irradiance, in which a static solar spectrum is assumed, overestimates the flare variations
by more than a factor of two as compared to the atmospheric response to the flares. To address this deficiency in the simple
conversion, an improved algorithm using CHIANTI spectral models has been developed to process the XUV Photometer System (XPS)
measurements with its broadband photometers. Model spectra representative of quiet Sun, active region, and flares are combined
to match the signals from the XPS and produce spectra from 0.1 to 40 nm in 0.1-nm intervals for the XPS Level 4 data product.
The two XPS instruments are aboard NASA’s Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) and Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics, and Dynamics (TIMED) satellites. In addition, the XPS responsivities have been updated for the latest XPS data processing version. The
new XPS results are consistent with daily variations from the previous simple conversion technique used for XPS and are also
consistent with spectral measurements made at wavelengths longer than 27 nm. Most importantly, the XPS flare variations are
reduced by factors of 2 – 4 at wavelengths shorter than 14 nm and are more consistent, for the first time, with atmospheric
response to solar flares. Along with the details of the new XPS algorithm, several comparisons to dayglow and photoelectron
measurements and model results are also presented to help verify the accuracy of the new XUV irradiance spectra. 相似文献
34.
Lijing CHENG John ABRAHAM Kevin E.TRENBERTH John FASULLO Tim BOYER Michael E.MANN Jiang ZHU Fan WANG Ricardo LOCARNINI Yuanlong LI Bin ZHANG Fujiang YU Liying WAN Xingrong CHEN Licheng Feng Xiangzhou SONG Yulong LIU Franco RESEGHETTI Simona SIMONCELLI Viktor GOURETSKI Gengxin CHEN Alexey MISHONOV Jim REAGAN Guancheng LI 《大气科学进展》2023,40(6):963-974
Changes in ocean heat content(OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth’s energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth’s climate system. In 2022, the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum.According to IAP/CAS data, ... 相似文献
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为了解白洋淀表层沉积物中有机氯农药(OCPs)和多氯联苯(PCBs)的污染情况,采用改进的GC-μECD方法对白洋淀11处沉积物进行了20种OCPs和全部209种PCB单体的定量检测和分析.结果显示:白洋淀11个沉积物样品共检出10种OCPs和24种PCBs,∑OCPs和∑PCBs的含量范围分别为1.22~52.45 ng/g(DW)和nd~37.61 ng/g,在国内处于中等水平; OCPs组成中以HCHs和Dieldrin(狄氏剂)为主,分别占到∑OCPs的39.9%和31.5%,其中7个采样点的HCHs以林丹输入为主,4个采样点以工业六六六污染为主.DDTs检出率较低,来源主要为历史残留;检出的PCB单体以低氯联苯为主,其中一氯、二氯和三氯联苯占∑PCBs的64.73%;采用沉积物质量标准法进行生态风险评估,结果表明白洋淀地区沉积物中p,p'-DDD和∑PCBs生态风险较低,Dieldrin生态风险尚需关注,γ-HCH生态风险较高,不容忽视. 相似文献
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The groundwater interbasin flow, Qy, from the north of Yucca Flat into Yucca Flat simulated using the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS) model greatly exceeds assessments obtained using other approaches. This study aimed to understand the reasons for the overestimation and to examine whether the Qy estimate can be reduced. The two problems were tackled from the angle of model uncertainty by considering six models revised from the DVRFS model with different recharge components and hydrogeological frameworks. The two problems were also tackled from the angle of parametric uncertainty for each model by first conducting Morris sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters and then conducting Monte Carlo simulations for the important parameters. The uncertainty analysis is general and suitable for tackling similar problems; the Morris sensitivity analysis has been utilized to date in only a limited number of regional groundwater modeling. The simulated Qy values were evaluated by using three kinds of calibration data (i.e., hydraulic head observations, discharge estimates, and constant‐head boundary flow estimates). The evaluation results indicate that, within the current DVRFS modeling framework, the Qy estimate can only be reduced to about half of the original estimate without severely deteriorating the goodness‐of‐fit to the calibration data. The evaluation results also indicate that it is necessary to develop a new hydrogeological framework to produce new flow patterns in the DVRFS model. The issues of hydrogeology and boundary flow are being addressed in a new version of the DVRFS model planned for release by the U.S. Geological Survey. 相似文献
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